And the kicker: the beginnings of progress in Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Martin Peretz and The New Republic , via http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/

The hundreds of thousands of young people in Martyrs' Square knew that they had Bush's backing. The president seems even to have enticed Jacques Chirac into a more active policy toward Lebanon: For him, too, Syria had to go. If this satisfies Chirac's yearning for la gloire, so be it. (But it will not be so easy to maintain such alliances: Already, Security Council members are said to be working up plans to put the future of Lebanon under the protective care of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, when nothing in unifil's past--nothing--should provide confidence that it is able, or even disposed, to act decisively against Arab brutality.)
What is occurring in Saudi Arabia and Egypt is also heartening, if more than a bit tentative. Under pressure from the Bush administration, the Saudis have allowed the first local elections in the country's history: an election to bodies that cannot make big decisions, and an election limited to male voters, naturally. But infidels (that is, Shia) may also vote. By Saudi standards, this is the revolution of 1848. In Egypt, responding to the insistence of the Bush people, President Hosni Mubarak has allowed that he will permit opponents to run in the presidential elections against him. Mubarak has no chance of losing ... this time. Maybe, however, the son will not be the father's inevitable successor, and maybe the Arab custom of turning dictatorships into dynasties will also come to an end, at least in Cairo. And, in the brave figure of Ayman Nour, the world now has a hero of the anti-Mubarak forces to celebrate and to support. In both countries, to be sure, what we are seeing are the bare beginnings of a democratic process, the very bare beginnings. It will be years, maybe decades, before these become democratic polities. And there is always the chance--as was the case in Algeria, once the jewel in the shabby crown of the "nonaligned"--that the vox populi will vote wrong. In the Algerian instance, it had to vote wrong: The choice was between national fascists and pious fascists. Take your pick.

Democracy is tough, it is a gamble, but it is better than any other system. And finally, the US is on the right side of democracy in this region.

Martin Peretz is a true American thinker

via Captain's Quarters

It has been heartening, in recent months, to watch some Democratic senators searching for ways out of the politics of churlishness. Some liberals appear to have understood that history is moving swiftly and in a good direction, and that history has no time for their old and mistaken suspicion of American power in the service of American values. One does not have to admire a lot about George W. Bush to admire what he has so far wrought. One need only be a thoughtful American with an interest in proliferating liberalism around the world. And, if liberals are unwilling to proliferate liberalism, then conservatives will. Rarely has there been a sweeter irony.

I think AAg and I have something to agree upon: Open Registration for egyption elections must be allowed for the elections to be free.

AAG says: As I am trying to tell you, the election is a load of crap, the voter registration date ended 2 months before he made the historic anouncment, heres a good piece from ABC news:

"CAIRO, Egypt Mar 26, 2005 — Now that he's promised a choice among candidates, Alfred Raouf is interested in voting in Egypt's upcoming presidential elections. It's too late. Egypt's president opened the September election to challengers only after the voter registration period had ended. "I would vote. It is a little bit less pointless this time," said Raouf, a 28-year-old computer programmer. The last time Raouf voted for a president was when he was in high school. He did not register this time, seeing no reason to participate in what looked like yet another one-candidate referendum on President Hosni Mubarak."I think Mubarak waited till registration was finished to make the announcement, because if people like me knew, they would have gone to register," Raouf said. "

My Response:
Ok AAG. We can agree. I think Mubarak waited till registration was finished to make the announcement, because if people like me knew, they would have gone to register. Now however, we have an opening, because as you know, Bush spoke on this very topic. So lets work together on this issue. I will help you. What do you need me to do?

AAAG has a problem with the US establishing what the Asia Times calls permanent bases in Afghanistan

AAG from www.Orientalismegypt.blogspot.com says:(in my comments section) First lady promotes womens rights, husband builds 9 military bases, can you spell world domination? why else would you build 9 bases in a very strategic area for the world? from Asia times, tell also who really controls afganistan, the "model" for democracy "US scatters bases to control Eurasia By Ramtanu Maitra"

The article: (see the link above)
The United States is beefing up its military presence in Afghanistan, at the same time encircling Iran. Washington will set up nine new bases in Afghanistan in the provinces of Helmand, Herat, Nimrouz, Balkh, Khost and Paktia.

My response:
1. We tried leaving Afghanistan once. The murderous, women hating, kite banning, Bamiyan Budda destroying, Movie and Book burning, public affection stoning TALIBAN came after we left. Demonstrating that we have an interest in a stable peaceful democratic Afghanistan is a good thing. Opium aside, the country is making remarkable progress. Besides, OBL, who attacked our country and murdered my countrymen, and Mullah Omar, who shielded OBL are still at large. We still have rights to claim them.

2. Encircling Iran is a good thing. Iran, led by an undemocratic Mullah leadership has made its focus the elimination from the Earth of our Major fully Democratic Ally in the Middle East, Israel. Iran funds the subjugation of the deservedly and (recently demonstrating that they want to be) Free people of Lebanon, by the theiving, car-bomb-assasinating, Saddam-Baathist-shielding Syria.

3. Pakistan and India have nothing to fear from the US, and in fact, are pleased about our pacification of the region. They are moving towards peace with each other, and long term prosperity.

4. Russia and China will get over it. Their anti-democratic subjugation of the peoples of central asia has gone on long enough.

My request of AAG:
I would like to have a more substantive conversation about what you think needs to be done in the middle east. What are your political needs? Who do you think is best placed to meet them?
I understand your skepticism, but I would liek to set that aside for a moment and work on issues that we might agree upon, so as to move this conversation forward.
thanks
jp

Congrats to Chrekoff. His one year Blogiversary

wow,
"1,734,900 visits to my blog so far, and average of about 7,500 visits daily, countless links and appearances on other blogrolls, cracking the Ecosystem's Top 50, a few radio interviews, "Good news from Iraq" and "Good news from Afghanistan" series becoming a regular fixture and crossing over into the mainstream media thanks to James Taranto at the "Opinion Journal", 385,000 mentions of "Chrenkoff" on Google, as opposed to just a two or three dozen BB (Before Blog)."

that's some real impact. I love this country. Thanks Al Gore!!!
Seriously though, if you've never visited his site, http://chrenkoff.blogspot.com/ you've probably only been reading the NY Times...and seriously missing out on the real news.

Brian is skeptical. President Bush is determined, optimistic.....and delivers

Brian, from www.popeyeafricalblogspot.com is skeptical that we can hold Mubarak's feet to the fire.

"If Mubarak doesnt all free and clear fair elections, the billions in funding will dry up, and he knows it."Correction: if Mubarak doesn't allow the facade of free and fair elections, billions in funding will dry up.In 1990, Francois Mitterand told France's client states sub-Saharan Africa that they had to democratize or lose French funding. They legalized de jure multipartyism but remained de facto dictatorships in all too many cases. Mubarak has his model that he'll follow.

I hesitate to argue much that Mubarak might think that he does have that option, but he really doesn't have very much wiggle room.
"1. Egypt – The President “Egypt has now the prospect of competitive, multi-party elections for president in September. Like all free elections, these require freedom of assembly, multiple candidates, free access by those candidates to the media and the right to form political parties"
This statement was less than 1 month ago. This, from the man whose vision and determination, with the strong and brave US military, single handedly freed 50 Million people from dictatorial murderous despots, going the extra mile after defending the US, to extending freedom in the world. Do you think Mubarak is going to give him pause? I think not.

Thinking-East presents Daler Rahimov (23, from Tajikistan) who has some problems with the recent elections

Thanks to Thinking-East.net
"According to the Central Elections Committee, more than 80% of the population of Tajikistan participated in the recent parliamentary elections. The dominating president's People's Democratic Party received the majority of votes, winning 74.9% or 17 seats; the Communist Party 13.64% or three seats; and the Islamic Renaissance Party 8.9% or two seats. According to overall results, three political parties - the Socialist Party, Democratic Party and Social Democratic Party - could not clear the 5% hurdle necessary to win a parliamentary seat. Because of these statistics, all three parties, as well as the Communists and Islamists, have not recognized the election results, claiming too many violations and too much official control over the electoral process. "
The only organization that assessed the election results was the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). "The parliamentary election process in Tajikistan failed to meet many OSCE commitments and other international standards for democratic elections," concluded the Election Observation Mission of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Tajikistan.
"The overall process was a disappointment," said Peter Eicher, the head of the OSCE/ODIHR Mission. "We had great hopes for the election because of improvements in the legal framework and the participation of six parties and many candidates. Regrettably, however, there was too much official control over the political campaign, too many government officials directing election commissions and a pattern of government interference with the independent press," he added.

Arab Street is skeptical of Mubarak's proposed election reforms

Arab street, know that we will keep his feet to the fire.

Election reforms in Egypt?

Issandr Al Amrani has some good commentary about the recent political developments in Egypt.Personally, I am extremely sceptical of what is happening, and I feel that those in Egypt who are very optimistic about what is happening will recognise this for a farce as soon as Mubarak is "re-elected", probably with 99.5% of the vote. If that doesn't happen then Egyptians will get the "next best thing", Gamal Mubarak. Then the ka-ka will really hit the marwaha (fan).I think that Egypt has all the building blocks in place for making this move for real, however one has to be mad to trust the motives of the incumbent hakooma in making it. Issandr touches on this in his comments, saying that perhaps this is just another "safety valve" for the hakooma to retain power. My point exactly, the Mubarakists will stop at nothing to retain the franchise which they have set up for themselves, and if the spectacle of multi-candidate presidential elections is what's needed to appease our American creditors/masters, then they'll go ahead with it, but *only* on their inevitably convoluted terms.

Egyptian Blogger Baheyya says the protestors are ascendant in Egypt

Hi Baheyya, know that Americans are watching, and that we support freedom and democracy for Egypt. Mubarak should be held accountable.

Protest Ascendant, Gamal Descendant?
The importance of what happened yesterday cannot be overstated. Defying a police ban after sunday's Ikhwan demonstration, Kifaya-organized demonstrations broke out in Cairo, Alexandria, and Mansoura. Kifaya's Cairo demonstration was prevented from marching to parliament, so protestors brandishing Kifaya's signature yellow sticker rerouted to the press syndicate. Police blocked Kifaya people from filling Manshiyya Square and confined them to the court steps, and then stepped aside as the square was taken over by a staged pro-Mubarak gathering (see this blogger for a beautiful account of the Kifaya demo). In Mansoura, NDP thugs attacked Kifaya demonstrators. General accounts can be found in the BBC and Reuters. Brilliantly overturning all those tired assertions about the 'death of politics' and Egyptians' supposedly legendary 'apathy', the small clumps of demonstrators have breathed new life into Egypt's streets. It's too soon to herald a return to street politics; never underestimate the brutality of interior minister, city security directors, and police chiefs. But the important thing to note is that the costs of repression are escalating by the day. With all eyes on the region's corrupt, repressive elites, they are bound to think a million times before quashing protest in full view of the international media and the not inconsiderable pent-up wrath of their 'own' publics. I put it in quotes because I can't stomach the lie that we the people are tied to these thugs in any way. We didn't choose them, we don't want them, we sure as hell can't stand them, and we're trying hard to get rid of them.

Assad "it wasn't me"

BEIRUT: Syrian President Bashar Assad has slammed the UN's fact-finding mission into the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri and denied its central accusation that he threatened Hariri with physical harm.
Assad said: "It is a report of political character when I was expecting rather a report of a technical-criminal nature."
"Right until the end Syria had excellent relations with Mr. Hariri. We had worked with him since the 1990s," Assad told Austrian weekly News.

FIrst Lady in Afganistan to promote Womens' education rights

Laura Bush in Afghanistan to back women's education
U.S. first lady Laura Bush visited Afghanistan for the first time on Wednesday to promote education for women, which was forbidden by the Taliban government overthrown by American-led forces three years ago.
The former schoolteacher and librarian unveiled a series of multi-million-dollar U.S.-funded projects to promote women's learning, saying that the projects would help secure the war-scarred nation's path to democracy.

200 Nepali journalists defied a ban on protests on Tuesday to march through the Himalayan kingdom's capital demanding restoration of press freedoms

Reuters:
About 200 Nepali journalists defied a ban on protests on Tuesday to march through the Himalayan kingdom's capital demanding restoration of press freedoms curbed since King Gyanendra seized power last month.
In Katmandu, riot police stood guard as reporters, editors and photographers waved banners seeking the release of 13 journalists held after Gyanendra imposed emergency and suspended civil liberties.

MEMRI highlights a Qatari Muslim scholar who calls for diversity and tolerance

Qatari Religious Scholar Calls for A Moderate and Modern Islam
In a two-part interview with the Qatari daily Al-Raya, Dr. Abd Al-Hamid Al-Ansari [1], former dean of the Faculty of Shari'a and Law at the University of Qatar, expressed his unconventional views on a variety of religious topics. The interview is unique since Dr. Al-Ansari's point of departure in his call for change in Islam isreligious and not secularist.
Dr. Al-Ansari attempts to "remove the concept of sanctity" from Islamic history and from the Companions of the Prophet Muhammad so that Islamic history can be open to criticism and the Companions can be seen as fallible human beings. He attempts to find the golden means between Islam and modernity.
Dr. Abd Al-Hamid Al-Ansari:
"We must purge the school curricula of all sectarian implications and elements according to which others deviate from the righteous path and the truth is in our hands alone. We must enrich the curricula with the values of tolerance, and acceptance of the other who is different (in school of faith, ethnic group, religion, nationality, or gender). The political regime must refrain from sectarian or ethnic preference; it must respect the rights and liberties of the minorities and must guarantee them through legislative action, practical policy, and equal opportunity in the areas of education, media, and civil positions.
"The great amount of talk about Islamic tolerance is useless if the laws of the land discriminate among the citizens… Similarly, there is no use in religious sermons, or even in curricula and early education, if daily reality contradicts the values of tolerance and national unity…
"We must recognize that in our societies, minorities suffer from an improper situation, from unfair deeds, from unequal treatment, and from various forms of discrimination by the state or by the Muslim and Arab majority. These minorities suffer greatly, and the outside world knows it. If we do not act to rectify this situation and to treat our citizens with justice and integrity, it may become a pretext for foreign forces to interfere in our affairs…"

Great post by DC Rocks on how the "Some people" don't understand why advancing Freedom and Liberty in the Middle East is the natural next step

Neo-Cons are today's true Liberals After reading article after article, massive amounts of MSM news sites, and endless Blogs, I have come to the realization that the "Neo-Cons" of today are the equivalent to the "Liberals" of Kennedy’s Era. Where Kennedy felt that Communism must be stopped at all costs, so do today’s Neo-Cons feel that the Islamic Fundamentalists also must be stopped at all costs.

CS Monitor, on which Russian republic is next...

hat tip www.Instapundit.com
Revolution echoes around Russia - Kyrgyzstan's people-power revolt spurs others protests against corruption throughout the region.
By Fred Weir Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
BISHKEK, KYRGYZSTAN – The shock waves from Kyrgyzstan's lightning revolution are spreading around the former Soviet Union - and into the heart of Russia - leading analysts to wonder which regimes might be next to face the peoples' wrath.
Recent days have seen a spate of copycat protests launched by opposition groups that were perhaps hoping their own local authorities might fold and flee under pressure, as did Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev when demonstrators stormed his Bishkek complex last week.
About 1,000 people rallied last Friday in the capital of Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko runs the last Soviet-style dictatorship in Europe, to demand his resignation. Police quickly dispersed the crowd and dispatched the ringleaders to prison.
Two Russian ethnic republics, Ingushetia and Bashkortostan, have seen mass street demonstrations this week directed against Kremlin-installed leaders. Even in remote Mongolia, the former USSR's Asian satellite, hundreds of protesters gathered last week to "congratulate our Kyrgyz brothers" and demand a rerun of last June's disputed parliamentary polls.
Some experts see a common thread among these upheavals that began 17 months ago when Georgians overthrew Eduard Shevardnadze in a peaceful revolt and continued with Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" late last year.
"Every situation is different, but a single process is unfolding," says Valentin Bogatyrov, a former Akayev adviser and director of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Bishkek. "Kyrgyzstan is a kind of trigger that will spread this unrest to our neighbors, and beyond. We are witnessing the second breakup of the Soviet Union."
Allegedly fraudulent elections sparked the uprisings in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. Among the post-Soviet states that face elections in the next two years are Azerbaijan later this year, plus Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan in 2006. Common features of the regimes potentially under siege include systemic corruption, nepotism, and political appointments based on personal fealty rather than professionalism.
........Neighboring Kazakhstan could be next in line for upheaval, some experts say. Former Soviet politbureau member Nursultan Nazarbayev has built a similar crony-centered, semi-democratic and, reportedly, deeply corrupt regime similar to Akayev's government. "Kazakh society will start thinking about more rapid changes," says Mr. Baisalov. "At the very least, Nazarbayev will probably forget any plans about his daughter inheriting power."
Uzbekistan, where another old Communist Party chief, Islam Karimov, rules with an iron fist, is a more worrisome case. "In Uzbekistan the frustration level is growing," says Mr. Kahn. "We've seen protests there already. There's a threat of an extreme reaction to that repression."
Some argue that it's only a matter of time before the revolutionary tide sweeps over Russia. Several of the country's 20 ethnic republics have a similar political profile to Kyrgyzstan, with a long-time ruler monopolizing power and often extending corrupt tentacles into business. "Events around the former Soviet Union have raised the possibility that similar things can happen here too," says Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the independent Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow. "The situation in several of our republics, including Tatarstan and Bashkortistan, look very much like Kyrgyzstan."

President Bush keeps his word. Freedom and Democracy are coming to the Middle East

Summary for my readers in the Middle East:
1. President Bush keeps his word.
Given the millions voting in the Afghan elections and the Iraq elections, after the intense media and political pressure on Bush to cancel the elections, this point is unchallengeable, unquestionable. If you accept this, then the statements below must bring you some encouragement.

2. Freedom and security in the Middle East are critical to the security of the US
The President: Our strategy to keep the peace in the longer term is to help change the conditions that give rise to extremism and terror, especially in the broader Middle East.Parts of that region have been caught for generations in the cycle of tyranny and despair and radicalism.When a dictatorship controls the political life of a country, responsible opposition cannot develop and dissent is driven underground and toward the extreme.And to draw attention away from their social and economic failures, dictators place blame on other countries and other races and stir the hatred that leads to violence.This status quo of despotism and anger cannot be ignored or appeased, kept in a box or bought off.

3. The President and his administration are actively working to promote democracy across the Middle East. This is a process, not an endpoint.
1. Egypt – The President “Egypt has now the prospect of competitive, multi-party elections for president in September. Like all free elections, these require freedom of assembly, multiple candidates, free access by those candidates to the media and the right to form political parties
2. Saudi Arabia – The President “Saudi Arabia's recent municipal elections were the beginning of reform that may allow greater participation in the future.
3. Lebanon and Syria – The President: "The subject that is most on my mind right now is getting Syria out of Lebanon, and I don't mean just the troops out of Lebanon, I mean all of them out of Lebanon, particularly the secret service out of Lebanon — the intelligence services," he said. "This is non-negotiable. It is time to get out . . . I think we've got a good chance to achieve that objective and to make sure that the May elections [in Lebanon] are fair.”
4. Iran –The President: “The Iranian regime should listen to the concerns of the world and listen to the voice of the Iranian people who long for their liberty and want their country to be a respected member of the international community.”

Update on conversation with AAG

Update on my conversation with AAG of http://orientalismegypt.blogspot.com/

Last weekend, I said this:
Good=Egypt arrests some Muslim Brotherhood folks. Bad=Who knows that they are not just arresting democracy protestors?

AAG responded to say the following:
jp, if you are a champion of democracy, why is that a good thing? what if the MB folks were actual democracy protestors also?(which is the actual case) see that is the double standard, what if a free and fair elections were help tomorow in egypt, and the MB won, would you support them? would the U.S support them? highly unlikly. But they would be democratically elected. As for mubaraks democratic reforms, let me let you in on a little secret. The reform was announced in march, the last date for voter registration: yup, you guessed it, early jan!!! many have tried to register after the announcment but were turned away. so much for democracy huh? http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=615466&page=1

I responded here:
I may have been wrong, but I did say in the piece, however that the protestors might be democracy advocates, and that it is very hard to tell from here.
AAG, I know it is hard to trust the motives of a country which has backed Mubarak for so long, but this has changed. Just look at the President and Sec State's statements to Mubarak, and the actions is canceling a trip, etc.
Also, I know that Mubarak's reform idea is just a small step, and that he is probably hoping that we will forget his pledge, but every move he makes towards democracy gives us more leverage to force him that direction.

The Council on Foreign Relations says this on the Muslim Brotherhood
http://cfrterrorism.org/groups/jamaat_print.html
"Is Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group?
At present, no. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood is a 70-year-old social and political movement that has served as a template for other Islamist movements in Egypt and across the Arab and Muslim world. Although the Muslim Brotherhood has not been involved in violent or terrorist actions in recent years, the Egyptian government, which first outlawed the Brotherhood in 1954, continues to accuse the movement of seeking to topple the current regime. At present, the Brotherhood does not support terrorism and has vehemently denied any connection with Jamaat al-Islamiyya or Egyptian Islamic Jihad. More than a dozen independent politicians affiliated with the Brotherhood serve as opposition members in Egypt’s parliament."

However, Big Pharaoh http://bigpharaoh.blogspot.com/ says this today about the MB
Muslim Brotherhood flexes MusclesThe Muslims Brotherhood organized a rally today to demand for reform and an end to the emergency laws in Egypt. The organizers said that 3000 protesters were present, the government said 1000. Security was mega intense around the area and the government arrested around 50 MBs before the protest.I believe that was an effort by the MB to flex its muscles and show its power after all the attention that Ayman Noor got over the past 2 months. They just want to say: hey, we're here, we're still the major opposition, and hell we're strong.Now, I don't mind the full participation of the MB in the political process. However, I don't want to give them emancipation right now. First, they still do not believe in democracy even if they repeated the word "democracy" as much as they repeat the word "Allahu Akbar". After all, their leader is "selected" and not "elected". How can an organization preach and call for democracy while it doesn't practice it within its own structure? Second, they are definitely not liberal. Their agenda on women rights, Christian rights, freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to change religion whether it is Islam or Komalizombanism (an African religion I never heard about!), etc, etc, is still very hazy.Their full emancipation and embrace can only come when Egypt's liberal democrats strengthen their bones in Egypt and counter the influence of the MBs. In other words, when we have many more Ayman Noor's in Egypt's political arena, something I do not see as possible before a minimum of 5 years provided that President Mubarak will grant total freedom to these people.The Muslims Brotherhood are not violent, but let us not forget that they are the roots of all terrorists organizations we see today. They provide the initial ideology, the initial first step, that people need before becoming full hardcore terrorists. They are the kindergarten that graduates non-violent kids who can become terrorists adults in the future. A person who enters the MB kindergarten can graduate and still become a nonviolent MB who wants to participate in Egypt's political life and use nonviolent means to change the country according to his beliefs. Another person who enters the MB kindergarten can graduate and later seeks higher education at Al Qaeda State University.

I think that what is critical is the process. If folks are not openly advocating nor funding, supporting, etc. violence against others, they should be allowed by their governments to express their opinions free and clear. You watch, AAG. If Mubarak doesnt all free and clear fair elections, the billions in funding will dry up, and he knows it.

Washington Post - Rice Describes Plans To Spread Democracy

Rice Describes Plans To Spread Democracy - Elections in Egypt Among Priorities
By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, March 26, 2005; Page A01

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday set out ambitious goals for the Bush administration's push for greater democracy overseas over the next four years, including pressing for competitive presidential elections this year in Egypt and women's right to vote in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries.
Rice, in an interview with Washington Post editors and reporters, said she was guided less by a fear that Islamic extremists would replace authoritarian governments than by a "strong certainty that the Middle East was not going to stay stable anyway." Extremism, she said, is rooted in the "absence of other channels for political activity," and so "when you know that the status quo is no longer defensible, then you have to be willing to move in another direction."
After Rice canceled a trip to Egypt recently to protest the continued imprisonment of an opposition leader, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced the nation would hold multi-party elections this year for the first time, though with potentially significant caveats. Rice cautioned yesterday that Egyptian elections "will not look like American competitive presidential elections," but she said the United States believes "competitiveness is an important element of the democratic enterprise."
Asked whether she hopes to see women vote in Saudi Arabia, where they are barred, Rice replied: "In terms of women, I hope they are voting everywhere." She said she recalled a photograph of the recent Saudi municipal elections "that was very striking to me": a man having his daughter put his ballot in the box, which she interpreted as demonstrating his hopes for his daughter.

Washington Times says the US Funded radio station Al Hurra is moving up the charts in Syria

Broadcaster funded by U.S. gains in Syria
By Krishnadev Calamur
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
Recent figures from marketing information company A.C. Nielsen show that the U.S. government-funded Arabic language satellite broadcaster Al Hurra ("the Free One") has made significant gains in Syria, despite sharp disagreements between Damascus and Washington.
The survey, conducted in December and January, showed that the channel had a weekly audience of 39 percent among Syrians 15 or older in homes with satellite television. Sixty percent of those viewers said they found Al Hurra's news coverage "reliable." The survey of 1,516 adults was conducted using face-to-face interviews and has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Al Hurra, which reaches 120 million people in 22 countries, has provoked debate in the United States and the Arab world.

Washington Post says US meeting with Syrian Opposition

Bush Administration Probes Syria's Future With Assad's Opposition

By Robin Wright and Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, March 26, 2005; Page A11

The Bush administration is reaching out to the Syrian opposition because of growing concerns that unrest in Lebanon could spill over and suddenly destabilize Syria, which borders four countries pivotal to U.S. Middle East policy -- Israel, Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey, U.S. and Syrian sources said. In an interview, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday that the United States is talking to "as many people as we possibly can" about the situation in Syria, as well as in Lebanon, to ensure that Washington is prepared in the event of yet another abrupt political upheaval. "What we're trying to do is to assess the situation so that nobody is blindsided, because events are moving so fast and in such unpredictable directions that it is only prudent at this point to know what's going on," Rice told Washington Post editors and reporters, citing "the possibility for what I often call discontinuous events, meaning that you were expecting them to go along like this and all of a sudden they go off in this direction, in periods of change like this. So we're going to look at all the possibilities and talk to as many people as we possibly can."

NY Times says Karami will quit once again

Lebanon's Pro-Syrian Prime Minister to Quit
By REUTERS
Published: March 29, 2005
Filed at 1:42 p.m. ET
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon's pro-Syrian prime minister said on Tuesday he would step down because he could not persuade anti-Syrian opposition figures to join a national unity government to lead the country to elections due in May. In a move that could delay those polls, Omar Karami told reporters he was not willing to lead a cabinet that did not include both pro-Syrian loyalists and the opposition.
``I am not willing to form a government of this sort and I came to put the speaker in the picture,'' he said after meeting Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. ``I am going to see the president to inform him of this decision.''

Debka says pro-Syrian structures in lebanon are collapsing

though usually suspect, it's not much more so than the NY Times.

DEBKAfile exclusive military sources report complete collapse of pro-Syrian political and intelligence structure in Lebanon and abrupt withdrawal of all Syrian commands including key figure military intelligence chief General Ghazaleh. Pro-Syrian Lebanese PM Karame backs out of forming new government in Beirut. Lebanese secret service chief Gen. Raymond Azar has fled to Paris. Internal Security Forces head Gen. Ali al-Hajj about to quit.

Welcome to the blogosphere Poli-yy

Saw some nice comments of my site, thought Id reciprocate...

Is President Bush intent on ending Assad's regime in Syria and his hold on Lebanon? Josh Landis says yes. I agree

Joshua Landis: "Is George Bush intent on bringing down the house of Asad?I think it is. Bashar has become the anti-Bush in the Middle East, despite his early intentions to be a reformer. He champions stability; Bush champions revolution. He champions authoritarianism, Bush democracy and elections. Bashar argues Levantine society is too tribal and religiously divided for radical experiments and large doses of freedom; Washington says anything is better than the status quo and the evil of Baathism. “Stuff happens,” but the end result will be a new Middle Eastern consensus, one that will end terrorism. The Greater Middle East is prepared for democracy and will prove liberal, Bush insists. Bashar insists that Bush’s polities will lead to the death of many Arabs, increased terrorism, increased instability, and the loss of more Arab land in Palestine. Bush increasingly sees Bashar as the problem, standing in the way of the fourth wave of democratization. Bashar says Bush is the problem.There will be no compromise deals or true dialogue between Syria and the US so long as the neo-conservatives hold sway in the White House and Bashar refuses to insist on radical internal reform. Bashar’s miscalculations in Lebanon have done great harm to his position in the Arab world and perhaps, more importantly, at home."

The end is near, but requires constant focus and attention. Assad has few options.

This is Zimbabwe

Blog highlighting Zimbabwe and the election on March 31, hat tip to www.Publiuspundit.com

Daily Star: Syrian Thieves Stealing from Lebanon

hat tip: http://beirut2bayside.blogspot.com/

Syria's hold over Lebanon worth $750 million a year

By Agence France Presse (AFP) Tuesday, March 22, 2005

BEIRUT: As Syria's domination of Lebanon begins to wane, favored Syrian oligarchs face the potential loss of some of the estimated $750 million a year in under-the-table receipts they have become accustomed to. The $750 million is part of the $2 billion that Syria earns directly and indirectly from its ties to Lebanon, according to recent studies.
.......Economist Joe Faddoul, head of the consultant group Istisharat, said: "The direct and indirect takings [by Syria] each come to $1 billion, or $2 billion a year."
He pointed out that since factional violence here came to an end 12 years ago, Syria has taken home $24 billion from its ties to Lebanon, which Faddoul said helps explain the Lebanese public debt of $35 billion.
"The official line is that the debt is the result of waste and corruption," he said, although in fact it is a result of "a coherent and organized system of direct and indirect payments."
He cited the example of telephone "piracy" thanks to two pro-Syrian entitites operating in Lebanon.
A well-placed source here has said that "tens of millions of dollars in telephone receipts go directly into Syrian pockets each month."
Faddoul also pointed to instances where he said Syrian parties benefit from the sale of domestic heating oil on the underground market as well as construction bids won by Syrian companies to build roads and port facilities.
The state electricity utility, Electricite du Liban, sustains annual losses of $500 million, part of which is due to the fact that some of its production is "stolen and not recorded in regions where the authorities are close to the [Syrian] oligarchy," Faddoul said.
Another study, published recently by the newspaper An-Nahar, spoke of "a loss to the Lebanese economy of $20 billion in the past 12 years attributable to the Syrian presence." The study found that between 1993 and 2005 transfers home by Syrian workers in Lebanon came to $6.7 billion. At the same time the Lebanese market sustained "a flood of [cheap] Syrian goods" valued at $4 billion, according to the study.
Recent studies tend to combine the amounts taken in by the Syrian oligarchy and the impact of measures imposed by Syria that penalize Lebanese exports. -

Time for Jordan to reform: Daily Star

hat tip: http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/

Jordan must democratize to be spared U.S. wrathBy Rana Sabbagh-Gargour Commentary by Monday, March 28, 2005
Jordan must today make a clear choice to initiate bold political reform, or lose face at home and invite interference from abroad. For now it has managed to deflect close foreign scrutiny of its teetering political reform efforts, mostly on the strength of its backing for Washington's policies, the war on terror, and its diplomatic ties with Israel. However, these issues remain deeply unpopular in a country where the majority of the population is anti-American.
But time is no longer on the Jordanian government's side. A breeze of democracy is blowing across the Middle East, whether in Palestine and Iraq, both of which remain under foreign occupation, in autocratic Egypt and Saudi Arabia, or in Lebanon. Jordan realizes it has to move fast, now that U.S. President George W. Bush is waging a fierce battle to spread democracy and economic reform throughout the region. Hesitant policies during the past decade, which have turned Jordan into a "liberalized autocracy" overseeing a corporate economy rather than a constitutional monarchy with elected governments, do not work any longer.

Thanks to Albania. The multiplier effect of Freedom

hat tip to http://freethoughts.splinder.com/
Washington Times editorial by the Albanian Ambassador to the US

"We Albanians are a nation of freedom fighters who know something about living under oppression," Albanian Prime Minister Fatos Nano wrote in a letter to President Bush. "That is why we wholeheartedly support the American-led effort to free the people of Iraq. And though we are a small country with a small military, we are proud to stand side by side with our allies in the fight to end the reign of terror in Baghdad. The difference between the United States and the Islamic terrorists is this: The terrorists export death. The Americans export freedom. "

Opposition Rally in Zimbabwe

Telegraph UK highlights a rally for change in Zimbabwe

Opposition faces bitter struggle against a slanted system

By David Blair in Johannesburg

(Filed: 28/03/2005)
Thousands of Zimbabweans raised their hands for change yesterday at the largest rallyof the opposition campaign. Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, was greeted by a sea of open palms as he addressed 15,000 supporters in the capital, Harare.

Good and Bad.

Good=Egypt arrests some Muslim Brotherhood folks.

Bad=Who knows that they are not just arresting democracy protestors?

NY TImes:

"Cairo Police Arrest 100, Blocking Rally by OppositionBy MONA EL-NAGGAR Published: March 28, 2005
AIRO, March 27 - Thousands of policemen lining the streets of central Cairo on Sunday prevented a protest rally by the banned Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group, in front of Parliament. But protesters regrouped at two other locations, and the police arrested 100 of them, organizers said.
The arrests came a day after the police arrested 84 Muslim Brotherhood members in a nationwide sweep, officials of the group said. "

Nice post on Blaster's Blog on the complementary characteristics of democracy and market economies

lets keep the ascendancy going by working on those areas of the world, whose people we know instinctively deserve better...

"Their conclusion resonates with America's core values. We see individuals as equally created with a God-given right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. So we trust in the equal wisdom of free individuals to protect those rights: through democracy, as the process for best meeting shared needs in the face of competing desires; and through markets as the process for best meeting private needs in a way that expands opportunity."

Far Outliers Blog

Great mix of links and analysis at Far Outliers. Check it out. Everything from North Korea to Namibia.

Post by Black Star Journal highlights the President of Namibia, who has retired. Good for him.

Check it out, also, great stuff at http://popeyeafrica.blogspot.com/ in general.

Hat tip to http://faroutliers.blogspot.com/ for this and the North Korea post.

Nujoma bows out
For the first time since independence in 1990, Namibia has a president other than Sam Nujoma. Hifikepunye Pohamba has been sworn in to replace the man generally considered to be the father of Namibia's independance.TheMalau, over at the Salon of News and Thoughts blog, lauds the change. "Peaceful transition of power... now that's a cool concept!" he raves.Although the process was not perfect in Namibia, it was good enough for a democracy of only 15 years of full independence... we could learn that it is doable, and that it does not need to be perfect at the first try.

North Korea Zone blog

Check out this blog coop concentrating on North Korea. Just found it. Very interesting list of bloggers and information.

Why a "coalition of the willing" is better than one of "the coerced and bribed"

Yet another reason for always standing for those who seek freedom. They begin to trust you.....

NY TImes Week in Review:
"Enter the government of the United States. In an echo of the ambivalence many Iraqis feel about the American presence in their country, many Lebanese are skeptical of American intentions. Not least among their reasons is what they regard as the acquiescence of the United States to the continuation of Syria's military presence here in 1990, in exchange for Syria's joining the coalition that was then being built to oust Mr. Hussein from Kuwait.

"The Syrians had a mandate from the United States" to keep their troops in Lebanon, said a former Lebanese minister who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

For many Lebanese, what made significant change possible in Lebanon was not the elections in Iraq, but the events of Sept. 11, 2001, which prompted the Bush administration to re-examine its reluctance to challenge the Syrian regime, as well as other Arab dictatorships that had backed terrorist groups. When the Lebanese began calling for a Syrian withdrawal, the Syrian government had to defy not just the Lebanese people, but the United States as well.

For that reason, more than a few Lebanese believe, President Bush's demands are proving decisive in driving the Syrians out. "This enthusiasm for democracy may not happen again," said Khalil Karam, professor of international relations at University of St. Joseph here, speaking of American foreign policy. "Without it, we could not stop Syria."

Back at Mr. Hariri's tomb, Mr. Salha, the factory worker, offered his own grudging invitation, if only to ensure that his homeland finally frees itself of Syrian domination.

"We are not against Bush," Mr. Salha said. "If he wants to make us safe and free, that's great. Let him do it."

My response to AAG of OrientalismEgypt

I think AAG confuses freedom and democracy with perfection. As we all know, democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the rest.
1. AAG says that Afghanistan has become a "narco-state". In fact, opium production has increased, yes, but to focus on that one issue, which is currently being prosecuted is to miss the big picture…Boys and girls are now attending schools for the first time, children can fly a kite when they wish, and people play soccer in the soccer stadiums instead of being regularly executed them. To suggest, like Michael Moore, that the Taliban were better at "keeping order" just calls you out as a murder-loving islamo-fascist., not to mention that he defends "tyrannical regimes like Syria and Iran" by "preferring that" than an 10-million voter elected Karzai democracy. Karzai and co. may not control every area of the country, much like The Pakistani government doesn't control the border areas like Waziristan, but both of those govts. Are working on the problem, making deals, prosecuting the murderers, like is their job. Clearly Pakistan has further to go in democratic efforts too, but one step at a time here.
2. I see democracy when murdering criminals are turned in by their neighbors, as is happening in Iraq regularly now… and did also happen in Fallujah. As you well know AAG, weapons are against Allah, when they are used in a Mosque. They are also against the rules of war. I see democracy in action after the illegal and amoral actions in Abu Graibh, when soldiers are prosecuted for their failings.
3. I agree with you, and it is one of the reasons why I started blogging, that the millions paid to Mubarak are a problem. The US, and you will read this many times here on this site, has for far too long, supported dictators in the middle east for the sake of stability and oil. But please remember that we were fighting the Cold war at the time, and Presidents do have to make decisions. The benefit for you is that murderers on 9/11 killed my countrymen, and instead of using terrible weapons to end your civilizations, we decided to risk our blood and treasure to make your lives better and export democracy to your region. As you may have noticed, our President Bush has put on notice those dictators whom with we had sided with in the past…Mubarak and the Saudis. They must increase democracy in their countries. This will happen, and has already started - Mubarak is allowing elections, and the Saudis have alrready held ones. They are not perfect, but please be assured that we are on the right side of this issue - your freedom is required for our security.
4. Israel was the only democracy in the middle east until recently, and we will defend that country's right to exist. Take it or leave it, because that's an issue where we wont budge. However, we are being fair, and wil continue to push the Israelis towards peace. They are free to defend themselves from those who wish to push them into the sea, but there will be peace eventually.

To recap, AAG. The US has made mistakes in the past in supporting dictatorships for the sake of stability, but be on notice that we are on the side of freedom and democracy for all now, as we realize our security depends on your freeodm.
I look forward to convincing you more of this in the near future. Be well
jp

Conversation with AAG of http://orientalismegypt.blogspot.com/

AAG said...
I think you confuse democracy with further subjegation of our populations. Now dont get me wrong, i am not defending tyranical regimes in Syria or Iran, but i defenetly prefer that than an "Allawi-Karzai" model of democracy. Keep tapping the tip of the volcano, and it might explode in your face....
3:56 AM


jp said...
I must vehemently disagree with AAG here, and unfortunately can't post a full response, but will do later. How could a total of 18 million votes in 2 countrys have preferred "further subjugation"? They experienced how tyrannical their prior regimes were and with our help, threw off those chains. I understand that you in Egypt might be skeptical of our motives, but understand that 1. we have few other options to defend ourselves from total destruction from madmen willing to die to kill us; other than exporting democracy 2. We realize that supporting "friendly dictators" is anathema and 3. the Taliban and Saddam were manaical murderers to begin with. What could be bad about getting rid of them? We have tried stability for too long, we now know it doesnt work. I will post more on this later. jp
10:12 AM


AAG said...
JP
With all due respect, not to burst your bubble but afganistan has become a Narco state, opium production has more than quadroupled. Karzai goverment controls kabul and the surounding nieghborhoods. even the bloody crazy-ass taliban maintained better law and order, the afganis were safer under them.
JP, we are worlds apart, but i want to give you the benifit of the doubt, i want to believe that you want to "spread"democracy. but when i see fallujah levelled, i dont see democracy. when i see a fallujan shot in cold blood on the floor of a mosque i dont see democracy. when i see Abu ghraib, i dont see democracy. when i see 2 billion a year for mubarak's coffers i dont see democracy. when i see unlimted support for israel and fuck the palestinians i dont see democracy.
i finished high school in the U.S by the way as an exchange student, and still have people that i consider family there,plus loads of friends. But i make a clear seperation between good average american who are very decent folk, and a morbid goverment that is out to take over the world.I am not alone in holding this opinion, many around the world agree, hell, many in the U.S itself agree.
Sorry JP, i want to believe you, but i cant....

Carrier movements towards Syria and Iran?

Flaming Duck highlights a Regime Change Iran post speculating on US Aircraft Carrier movements in the eastern Med and Persian Gulf. Apparently we will have 3 carriers in the area for the first time since Feb '04.
Regime Change heard it from Stratfor last week (pssssst, pass it on)

Dr. Ahmad Albaghdadi is requesting info on how to apply for political assylum. Please assist if you can.

A request for political asylum
Ahmad Albaghdadi*


If you state your opinion about the teaching of a religious curriculum, and such action will lead to imprisonment and a ban from writing and a promise to pay bail to stop the prison sentence, which is the ruling that came out this week, then this means that the “knife had already reached the throat” even if it was done under the cover of law. Therefore, there is no escape from this problem, which was done under the cover of law, other than to request political asylum in one of the western countries.

This is not only to protect my freedom, but also to protect “life” as well. What is it to gain by staying in a country that does not respect one’s dignity? What is it to gain by staying in a country where you cannot be certain about the protection of your life? What is to gain by staying in a country when such action brings trouble to members of your own family and distract you from your profession? The writer Abdullateef Alduaij did the right thing when he emigrated from Kuwait and settled in the United States. He now writes from there, and hence he saved his dignity and the dignity of his family. He also protected his freedom of expression, and saved himself from the humiliation of prison, which is quite possible, given the laws in Kuwait.

After this ruling, I am forced to request political asylum publicly, and through the internet, to a western country. This is not because I hate my country, but because I hate its tyrannical laws. Through those laws courts do not hesitate to imprison someone who stated an opinion that is not directly related to religion. This is so, because what I know is that Islam does not require a Muslim to memorize the Holy Quraan. The proof is from the holy Quraan itself, when it says in what it means: “read what you can read from the Quraan,” and also a saying that “Alikhlaas” verse is equivalent to a third of the Quraan, when a muslim recites it.

I did not research one day in the subject of political asylum, since I thought that my dignity is respected in my country, and my life is safe. But now it is different. It is clear that the goal of every enemy of mine (and they are many in this country) to place me in prison. Since I do not know the right way to request the asylum, I request from anyone who knows how to request such asylum to provide me with the necessary information by Fax at (965) 4721840, or by using e-mail at (awtaad@yahoo.com). I will be very thankful for the information.

I have to admit that the religious movement has won in its battle against me. I congratulate them, and also congratulate our tyrannical country for this victory. Hence, I will stop writing about religious subjects. It is also important to note that the host country will not incur any expenses, since I can live on my retireme