And the kicker: the beginnings of progress in Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Martin Peretz and The New Republic , via http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/

The hundreds of thousands of young people in Martyrs' Square knew that they had Bush's backing. The president seems even to have enticed Jacques Chirac into a more active policy toward Lebanon: For him, too, Syria had to go. If this satisfies Chirac's yearning for la gloire, so be it. (But it will not be so easy to maintain such alliances: Already, Security Council members are said to be working up plans to put the future of Lebanon under the protective care of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, when nothing in unifil's past--nothing--should provide confidence that it is able, or even disposed, to act decisively against Arab brutality.)
What is occurring in Saudi Arabia and Egypt is also heartening, if more than a bit tentative. Under pressure from the Bush administration, the Saudis have allowed the first local elections in the country's history: an election to bodies that cannot make big decisions, and an election limited to male voters, naturally. But infidels (that is, Shia) may also vote. By Saudi standards, this is the revolution of 1848. In Egypt, responding to the insistence of the Bush people, President Hosni Mubarak has allowed that he will permit opponents to run in the presidential elections against him. Mubarak has no chance of losing ... this time. Maybe, however, the son will not be the father's inevitable successor, and maybe the Arab custom of turning dictatorships into dynasties will also come to an end, at least in Cairo. And, in the brave figure of Ayman Nour, the world now has a hero of the anti-Mubarak forces to celebrate and to support. In both countries, to be sure, what we are seeing are the bare beginnings of a democratic process, the very bare beginnings. It will be years, maybe decades, before these become democratic polities. And there is always the chance--as was the case in Algeria, once the jewel in the shabby crown of the "nonaligned"--that the vox populi will vote wrong. In the Algerian instance, it had to vote wrong: The choice was between national fascists and pious fascists. Take your pick.

Democracy is tough, it is a gamble, but it is better than any other system. And finally, the US is on the right side of democracy in this region.

Martin Peretz is a true American thinker

via Captain's Quarters

It has been heartening, in recent months, to watch some Democratic senators searching for ways out of the politics of churlishness. Some liberals appear to have understood that history is moving swiftly and in a good direction, and that history has no time for their old and mistaken suspicion of American power in the service of American values. One does not have to admire a lot about George W. Bush to admire what he has so far wrought. One need only be a thoughtful American with an interest in proliferating liberalism around the world. And, if liberals are unwilling to proliferate liberalism, then conservatives will. Rarely has there been a sweeter irony.

I think AAg and I have something to agree upon: Open Registration for egyption elections must be allowed for the elections to be free.

AAG says: As I am trying to tell you, the election is a load of crap, the voter registration date ended 2 months before he made the historic anouncment, heres a good piece from ABC news:

"CAIRO, Egypt Mar 26, 2005 — Now that he's promised a choice among candidates, Alfred Raouf is interested in voting in Egypt's upcoming presidential elections. It's too late. Egypt's president opened the September election to challengers only after the voter registration period had ended. "I would vote. It is a little bit less pointless this time," said Raouf, a 28-year-old computer programmer. The last time Raouf voted for a president was when he was in high school. He did not register this time, seeing no reason to participate in what looked like yet another one-candidate referendum on President Hosni Mubarak."I think Mubarak waited till registration was finished to make the announcement, because if people like me knew, they would have gone to register," Raouf said. "

My Response:
Ok AAG. We can agree. I think Mubarak waited till registration was finished to make the announcement, because if people like me knew, they would have gone to register. Now however, we have an opening, because as you know, Bush spoke on this very topic. So lets work together on this issue. I will help you. What do you need me to do?

AAAG has a problem with the US establishing what the Asia Times calls permanent bases in Afghanistan

AAG from www.Orientalismegypt.blogspot.com says:(in my comments section) First lady promotes womens rights, husband builds 9 military bases, can you spell world domination? why else would you build 9 bases in a very strategic area for the world? from Asia times, tell also who really controls afganistan, the "model" for democracy "US scatters bases to control Eurasia By Ramtanu Maitra"

The article: (see the link above)
The United States is beefing up its military presence in Afghanistan, at the same time encircling Iran. Washington will set up nine new bases in Afghanistan in the provinces of Helmand, Herat, Nimrouz, Balkh, Khost and Paktia.

My response:
1. We tried leaving Afghanistan once. The murderous, women hating, kite banning, Bamiyan Budda destroying, Movie and Book burning, public affection stoning TALIBAN came after we left. Demonstrating that we have an interest in a stable peaceful democratic Afghanistan is a good thing. Opium aside, the country is making remarkable progress. Besides, OBL, who attacked our country and murdered my countrymen, and Mullah Omar, who shielded OBL are still at large. We still have rights to claim them.

2. Encircling Iran is a good thing. Iran, led by an undemocratic Mullah leadership has made its focus the elimination from the Earth of our Major fully Democratic Ally in the Middle East, Israel. Iran funds the subjugation of the deservedly and (recently demonstrating that they want to be) Free people of Lebanon, by the theiving, car-bomb-assasinating, Saddam-Baathist-shielding Syria.

3. Pakistan and India have nothing to fear from the US, and in fact, are pleased about our pacification of the region. They are moving towards peace with each other, and long term prosperity.

4. Russia and China will get over it. Their anti-democratic subjugation of the peoples of central asia has gone on long enough.

My request of AAG:
I would like to have a more substantive conversation about what you think needs to be done in the middle east. What are your political needs? Who do you think is best placed to meet them?
I understand your skepticism, but I would liek to set that aside for a moment and work on issues that we might agree upon, so as to move this conversation forward.
thanks
jp

Congrats to Chrekoff. His one year Blogiversary

wow,
"1,734,900 visits to my blog so far, and average of about 7,500 visits daily, countless links and appearances on other blogrolls, cracking the Ecosystem's Top 50, a few radio interviews, "Good news from Iraq" and "Good news from Afghanistan" series becoming a regular fixture and crossing over into the mainstream media thanks to James Taranto at the "Opinion Journal", 385,000 mentions of "Chrenkoff" on Google, as opposed to just a two or three dozen BB (Before Blog)."

that's some real impact. I love this country. Thanks Al Gore!!!
Seriously though, if you've never visited his site, http://chrenkoff.blogspot.com/ you've probably only been reading the NY Times...and seriously missing out on the real news.

Brian is skeptical. President Bush is determined, optimistic.....and delivers

Brian, from www.popeyeafricalblogspot.com is skeptical that we can hold Mubarak's feet to the fire.

"If Mubarak doesnt all free and clear fair elections, the billions in funding will dry up, and he knows it."Correction: if Mubarak doesn't allow the facade of free and fair elections, billions in funding will dry up.In 1990, Francois Mitterand told France's client states sub-Saharan Africa that they had to democratize or lose French funding. They legalized de jure multipartyism but remained de facto dictatorships in all too many cases. Mubarak has his model that he'll follow.

I hesitate to argue much that Mubarak might think that he does have that option, but he really doesn't have very much wiggle room.
"1. Egypt – The President “Egypt has now the prospect of competitive, multi-party elections for president in September. Like all free elections, these require freedom of assembly, multiple candidates, free access by those candidates to the media and the right to form political parties"
This statement was less than 1 month ago. This, from the man whose vision and determination, with the strong and brave US military, single handedly freed 50 Million people from dictatorial murderous despots, going the extra mile after defending the US, to extending freedom in the world. Do you think Mubarak is going to give him pause? I think not.

Thinking-East presents Daler Rahimov (23, from Tajikistan) who has some problems with the recent elections

Thanks to Thinking-East.net
"According to the Central Elections Committee, more than 80% of the population of Tajikistan participated in the recent parliamentary elections. The dominating president's People's Democratic Party received the majority of votes, winning 74.9% or 17 seats; the Communist Party 13.64% or three seats; and the Islamic Renaissance Party 8.9% or two seats. According to overall results, three political parties - the Socialist Party, Democratic Party and Social Democratic Party - could not clear the 5% hurdle necessary to win a parliamentary seat. Because of these statistics, all three parties, as well as the Communists and Islamists, have not recognized the election results, claiming too many violations and too much official control over the electoral process. "
The only organization that assessed the election results was the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). "The parliamentary election process in Tajikistan failed to meet many OSCE commitments and other international standards for democratic elections," concluded the Election Observation Mission of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in Tajikistan.
"The overall process was a disappointment," said Peter Eicher, the head of the OSCE/ODIHR Mission. "We had great hopes for the election because of improvements in the legal framework and the participation of six parties and many candidates. Regrettably, however, there was too much official control over the political campaign, too many government officials directing election commissions and a pattern of government interference with the independent press," he added.

Arab Street is skeptical of Mubarak's proposed election reforms

Arab street, know that we will keep his feet to the fire.

Election reforms in Egypt?

Issandr Al Amrani has some good commentary about the recent political developments in Egypt.Personally, I am extremely sceptical of what is happening, and I feel that those in Egypt who are very optimistic about what is happening will recognise this for a farce as soon as Mubarak is "re-elected", probably with 99.5% of the vote. If that doesn't happen then Egyptians will get the "next best thing", Gamal Mubarak. Then the ka-ka will really hit the marwaha (fan).I think that Egypt has all the building blocks in place for making this move for real, however one has to be mad to trust the motives of the incumbent hakooma in making it. Issandr touches on this in his comments, saying that perhaps this is just another "safety valve" for the hakooma to retain power. My point exactly, the Mubarakists will stop at nothing to retain the franchise which they have set up for themselves, and if the spectacle of multi-candidate presidential elections is what's needed to appease our American creditors/masters, then they'll go ahead with it, but *only* on their inevitably convoluted terms.

Egyptian Blogger Baheyya says the protestors are ascendant in Egypt

Hi Baheyya, know that Americans are watching, and that we support freedom and democracy for Egypt. Mubarak should be held accountable.

Protest Ascendant, Gamal Descendant?
The importance of what happened yesterday cannot be overstated. Defying a police ban after sunday's Ikhwan demonstration, Kifaya-organized demonstrations broke out in Cairo, Alexandria, and Mansoura. Kifaya's Cairo demonstration was prevented from marching to parliament, so protestors brandishing Kifaya's signature yellow sticker rerouted to the press syndicate. Police blocked Kifaya people from filling Manshiyya Square and confined them to the court steps, and then stepped aside as the square was taken over by a staged pro-Mubarak gathering (see this blogger for a beautiful account of the Kifaya demo). In Mansoura, NDP thugs attacked Kifaya demonstrators. General accounts can be found in the BBC and Reuters. Brilliantly overturning all those tired assertions about the 'death of politics' and Egyptians' supposedly legendary 'apathy', the small clumps of demonstrators have breathed new life into Egypt's streets. It's too soon to herald a return to street politics; never underestimate the brutality of interior minister, city security directors, and police chiefs. But the important thing to note is that the costs of repression are escalating by the day. With all eyes on the region's corrupt, repressive elites, they are bound to think a million times before quashing protest in full view of the international media and the not inconsiderable pent-up wrath of their 'own' publics. I put it in quotes because I can't stomach the lie that we the people are tied to these thugs in any way. We didn't choose them, we don't want them, we sure as hell can't stand them, and we're trying hard to get rid of them.

Assad "it wasn't me"

BEIRUT: Syrian President Bashar Assad has slammed the UN's fact-finding mission into the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri and denied its central accusation that he threatened Hariri with physical harm.
Assad said: "It is a report of political character when I was expecting rather a report of a technical-criminal nature."
"Right until the end Syria had excellent relations with Mr. Hariri. We had worked with him since the 1990s," Assad told Austrian weekly News.

FIrst Lady in Afganistan to promote Womens' education rights

Laura Bush in Afghanistan to back women's education
U.S. first lady Laura Bush visited Afghanistan for the first time on Wednesday to promote education for women, which was forbidden by the Taliban government overthrown by American-led forces three years ago.
The former schoolteacher and librarian unveiled a series of multi-million-dollar U.S.-funded projects to promote women's learning, saying that the projects would help secure the war-scarred nation's path to democracy.

200 Nepali journalists defied a ban on protests on Tuesday to march through the Himalayan kingdom's capital demanding restoration of press freedoms

Reuters:
About 200 Nepali journalists defied a ban on protests on Tuesday to march through the Himalayan kingdom's capital demanding restoration of press freedoms curbed since King Gyanendra seized power last month.
In Katmandu, riot police stood guard as reporters, editors and photographers waved banners seeking the release of 13 journalists held after Gyanendra imposed emergency and suspended civil liberties.

MEMRI highlights a Qatari Muslim scholar who calls for diversity and tolerance

Qatari Religious Scholar Calls for A Moderate and Modern Islam
In a two-part interview with the Qatari daily Al-Raya, Dr. Abd Al-Hamid Al-Ansari [1], former dean of the Faculty of Shari'a and Law at the University of Qatar, expressed his unconventional views on a variety of religious topics. The interview is unique since Dr. Al-Ansari's point of departure in his call for change in Islam isreligious and not secularist.
Dr. Al-Ansari attempts to "remove the concept of sanctity" from Islamic history and from the Companions of the Prophet Muhammad so that Islamic history can be open to criticism and the Companions can be seen as fallible human beings. He attempts to find the golden means between Islam and modernity.
Dr. Abd Al-Hamid Al-Ansari:
"We must purge the school curricula of all sectarian implications and elements according to which others deviate from the righteous path and the truth is in our hands alone. We must enrich the curricula with the values of tolerance, and acceptance of the other who is different (in school of faith, ethnic group, religion, nationality, or gender). The political regime must refrain from sectarian or ethnic preference; it must respect the rights and liberties of the minorities and must guarantee them through legislative action, practical policy, and equal opportunity in the areas of education, media, and civil positions.
"The great amount of talk about Islamic tolerance is useless if the laws of the land discriminate among the citizens… Similarly, there is no use in religious sermons, or even in curricula and early education, if daily reality contradicts the values of tolerance and national unity…
"We must recognize that in our societies, minorities suffer from an improper situation, from unfair deeds, from unequal treatment, and from various forms of discrimination by the state or by the Muslim and Arab majority. These minorities suffer greatly, and the outside world knows it. If we do not act to rectify this situation and to treat our citizens with justice and integrity, it may become a pretext for foreign forces to interfere in our affairs…"

Great post by DC Rocks on how the "Some people" don't understand why advancing Freedom and Liberty in the Middle East is the natural next step

Neo-Cons are today's true Liberals After reading article after article, massive amounts of MSM news sites, and endless Blogs, I have come to the realization that the "Neo-Cons" of today are the equivalent to the "Liberals" of Kennedy’s Era. Where Kennedy felt that Communism must be stopped at all costs, so do today’s Neo-Cons feel that the Islamic Fundamentalists also must be stopped at all costs.

CS Monitor, on which Russian republic is next...

hat tip www.Instapundit.com
Revolution echoes around Russia - Kyrgyzstan's people-power revolt spurs others protests against corruption throughout the region.
By Fred Weir Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
BISHKEK, KYRGYZSTAN – The shock waves from Kyrgyzstan's lightning revolution are spreading around the former Soviet Union - and into the heart of Russia - leading analysts to wonder which regimes might be next to face the peoples' wrath.
Recent days have seen a spate of copycat protests launched by opposition groups that were perhaps hoping their own local authorities might fold and flee under pressure, as did Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev when demonstrators stormed his Bishkek complex last week.
About 1,000 people rallied last Friday in the capital of Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko runs the last Soviet-style dictatorship in Europe, to demand his resignation. Police quickly dispersed the crowd and dispatched the ringleaders to prison.
Two Russian ethnic republics, Ingushetia and Bashkortostan, have seen mass street demonstrations this week directed against Kremlin-installed leaders. Even in remote Mongolia, the former USSR's Asian satellite, hundreds of protesters gathered last week to "congratulate our Kyrgyz brothers" and demand a rerun of last June's disputed parliamentary polls.
Some experts see a common thread among these upheavals that began 17 months ago when Georgians overthrew Eduard Shevardnadze in a peaceful revolt and continued with Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" late last year.
"Every situation is different, but a single process is unfolding," says Valentin Bogatyrov, a former Akayev adviser and director of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Bishkek. "Kyrgyzstan is a kind of trigger that will spread this unrest to our neighbors, and beyond. We are witnessing the second breakup of the Soviet Union."
Allegedly fraudulent elections sparked the uprisings in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. Among the post-Soviet states that face elections in the next two years are Azerbaijan later this year, plus Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan in 2006. Common features of the regimes potentially under siege include systemic corruption, nepotism, and political appointments based on personal fealty rather than professionalism.
........Neighboring Kazakhstan could be next in line for upheaval, some experts say. Former Soviet politbureau member Nursultan Nazarbayev has built a similar crony-centered, semi-democratic and, reportedly, deeply corrupt regime similar to Akayev's government. "Kazakh society will start thinking about more rapid changes," says Mr. Baisalov. "At the very least, Nazarbayev will probably forget any plans about his daughter inheriting power."
Uzbekistan, where another old Communist Party chief, Islam Karimov, rules with an iron fist, is a more worrisome case. "In Uzbekistan the frustration level is growing," says Mr. Kahn. "We've seen protests there already. There's a threat of an extreme reaction to that repression."
Some argue that it's only a matter of time before the revolutionary tide sweeps over Russia. Several of the country's 20 ethnic republics have a similar political profile to Kyrgyzstan, with a long-time ruler monopolizing power and often extending corrupt tentacles into business. "Events around the former Soviet Union have raised the possibility that similar things can happen here too," says Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the independent Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow. "The situation in several of our republics, including Tatarstan and Bashkortistan, look very much like Kyrgyzstan."

President Bush keeps his word. Freedom and Democracy are coming to the Middle East

Summary for my readers in the Middle East:
1. President Bush keeps his word.
Given the millions voting in the Afghan elections and the Iraq elections, after the intense media and political pressure on Bush to cancel the elections, this point is unchallengeable, unquestionable. If you accept this, then the statements below must bring you some encouragement.

2. Freedom and security in the Middle East are critical to the security of the US
The President: Our strategy to keep the peace in the longer term is to help change the conditions that give rise to extremism and terror, especially in the broader Middle East.Parts of that region have been caught for generations in the cycle of tyranny and despair and radicalism.When a dictatorship controls the political life of a country, responsible opposition cannot develop and dissent is driven underground and toward the extreme.And to draw attention away from their social and economic failures, dictators place blame on other countries and other races and stir the hatred that leads to violence.This status quo of despotism and anger cannot be ignored or appeased, kept in a box or bought off.

3. The President and his administration are actively working to promote democracy across the Middle East. This is a process, not an endpoint.
1. Egypt – The President “Egypt has now the prospect of competitive, multi-party elections for president in September. Like all free elections, these require freedom of assembly, multiple candidates, free access by those candidates to the media and the right to form political parties
2. Saudi Arabia – The President “Saudi Arabia's recent municipal elections were the beginning of reform that may allow greater participation in the future.
3. Lebanon and Syria – The President: "The subject that is most on my mind right now is getting Syria out of Lebanon, and I don't mean just the troops out of Lebanon, I mean all of them out of Lebanon, particularly the secret service out of Lebanon — the intelligence services," he said. "This is non-negotiable. It is time to get out . . . I think we've got a good chance to achieve that objective and to make sure that the May elections [in Lebanon] are fair.”
4. Iran –The President: “The Iranian regime should listen to the concerns of the world and listen to the voice of the Iranian people who long for their liberty and want their country to be a respected member of the international community.”

Update on conversation with AAG

Update on my conversation with AAG of http://orientalismegypt.blogspot.com/

Last weekend, I said this:
Good=Egypt arrests some Muslim Brotherhood folks. Bad=Who knows that they are not just arresting democracy protestors?

AAG responded to say the following:
jp, if you are a champion of democracy, why is that a good thing? what if the MB folks were actual democracy protestors also?(which is the actual case) see that is the double standard, what if a free and fair elections were help tomorow in egypt, and the MB won, would you support them? would the U.S support them? highly unlikly. But they would be democratically elected. As for mubaraks democratic reforms, let me let you in on a little secret. The reform was announced in march, the last date for voter registration: yup, you guessed it, early jan!!! many have tried to register after the announcment but were turned away. so much for democracy huh? http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=615466&page=1

I responded here:
I may have been wrong, but I did say in the piece, however that the protestors might be democracy advocates, and that it is very hard to tell from here.
AAG, I know it is hard to trust the motives of a country which has backed Mubarak for so long, but this has changed. Just look at the President and Sec State's statements to Mubarak, and the actions is canceling a trip, etc.
Also, I know that Mubarak's reform idea is just a small step, and that he is probably hoping that we will forget his pledge, but every move he makes towards democracy gives us more leverage to force him that direction.

The Council on Foreign Relations says this on the Muslim Brotherhood
http://cfrterrorism.org/groups/jamaat_print.html
"Is Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group?
At present, no. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood is a 70-year-old social and political movement that has served as a template for other Islamist movements in Egypt and across the Arab and Muslim world. Although the Muslim Brotherhood has not been involved in violent or terrorist actions in recent years, the Egyptian government, which first outlawed the Brotherhood in 1954, continues to accuse the movement of seeking to topple the current regime. At present, the Brotherhood does not support terrorism and has vehemently denied any connection with Jamaat al-Islamiyya or Egyptian Islamic Jihad. More than a dozen independent politicians affiliated with the Brotherhood serve as opposition members in Egypt’s parliament."

However, Big Pharaoh http://bigpharaoh.blogspot.com/ says this today about the MB
Muslim Brotherhood flexes MusclesThe Muslims Brotherhood organized a rally today to demand for reform and an end to the emergency laws in Egypt. The organizers said that 3000 protesters were present, the government said 1000. Security was mega intense around the area and the government arrested around 50 MBs before the protest.I believe that was an effort by the MB to flex its muscles and show its power after all the attention that Ayman Noor got over the past 2 months. They just want to say: hey, we're here, we're still the major opposition, and hell we're strong.Now, I don't mind the full participation of the MB in the political process. However, I don't want to give them emancipation right now. First, they still do not believe in democracy even if they repeated the word "democracy" as much as they repeat the word "Allahu Akbar". After all, their leader is "selected" and not "elected". How can an organization preach and call for democracy while it doesn't practice it within its own structure? Second, they are definitely not liberal. Their agenda on women rights, Christian rights, freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to change religion whether it is Islam or Komalizombanism (an African religion I never heard about!), etc, etc, is still very hazy.Their full emancipation and embrace can only come when Egypt's liberal democrats strengthen their bones in Egypt and counter the influence of the MBs. In other words, when we have many more Ayman Noor's in Egypt's political arena, something I do not see as possible before a minimum of 5 years provided that President Mubarak will grant total freedom to these people.The Muslims Brotherhood are not violent, but let us not forget that they are the roots of all terrorists organizations we see today. They provide the initial ideology, the initial first step, that people need before becoming full hardcore terrorists. They are the kindergarten that graduates non-violent kids who can become terrorists adults in the future. A person who enters the MB kindergarten can graduate and still become a nonviolent MB who wants to participate in Egypt's political life and use nonviolent means to change the country according to his beliefs. Another person who enters the MB kindergarten can graduate and later seeks higher education at Al Qaeda State University.

I think that what is critical is the process. If folks are not openly advocating nor funding, supporting, etc. violence against others, they should be allowed by their governments to express their opinions free and clear. You watch, AAG. If Mubarak doesnt all free and clear fair elections, the billions in funding will dry up, and he knows it.

Washington Post - Rice Describes Plans To Spread Democracy

Rice Describes Plans To Spread Democracy - Elections in Egypt Among Priorities
By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, March 26, 2005; Page A01

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday set out ambitious goals for the Bush administration's push for greater democracy overseas over the next four years, including pressing for competitive presidential elections this year in Egypt and women's right to vote in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries.
Rice, in an interview with Washington Post editors and reporters, said she was guided less by a fear that Islamic extremists would replace authoritarian governments than by a "strong certainty that the Middle East was not going to stay stable anyway." Extremism, she said, is rooted in the "absence of other channels for political activity," and so "when you know that the status quo is no longer defensible, then you have to be willing to move in another direction."
After Rice canceled a trip to Egypt recently to protest the continued imprisonment of an opposition leader, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced the nation would hold multi-party elections this year for the first time, though with potentially significant caveats. Rice cautioned yesterday that Egyptian elections "will not look like American competitive presidential elections," but she said the United States believes "competitiveness is an important element of the democratic enterprise."
Asked whether she hopes to see women vote in Saudi Arabia, where they are barred, Rice replied: "In terms of women, I hope they are voting everywhere." She said she recalled a photograph of the recent Saudi municipal elections "that was very striking to me": a man having his daughter put his ballot in the box, which she interpreted as demonstrating his hopes for his daughter.

Washington Times says the US Funded radio station Al Hurra is moving up the charts in Syria

Broadcaster funded by U.S. gains in Syria
By Krishnadev Calamur
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
Recent figures from marketing information company A.C. Nielsen show that the U.S. government-funded Arabic language satellite broadcaster Al Hurra ("the Free One") has made significant gains in Syria, despite sharp disagreements between Damascus and Washington.
The survey, conducted in December and January, showed that the channel had a weekly audience of 39 percent among Syrians 15 or older in homes with satellite television. Sixty percent of those viewers said they found Al Hurra's news coverage "reliable." The survey of 1,516 adults was conducted using face-to-face interviews and has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Al Hurra, which reaches 120 million people in 22 countries, has provoked debate in the United States and the Arab world.

Washington Post says US meeting with Syrian Opposition

Bush Administration Probes Syria's Future With Assad's Opposition

By Robin Wright and Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, March 26, 2005; Page A11

The Bush administration is reaching out to the Syrian opposition because of growing concerns that unrest in Lebanon could spill over and suddenly destabilize Syria, which borders four countries pivotal to U.S. Middle East policy -- Israel, Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey, U.S. and Syrian sources said. In an interview, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday that the United States is talking to "as many people as we possibly can" about the situation in Syria, as well as in Lebanon, to ensure that Washington is prepared in the event of yet another abrupt political upheaval. "What we're trying to do is to assess the situation so that nobody is blindsided, because events are moving so fast and in such unpredictable directions that it is only prudent at this point to know what's going on," Rice told Washington Post editors and reporters, citing "the possibility for what I often call discontinuous events, meaning that you were expecting them to go along like this and all of a sudden they go off in this direction, in periods of change like this. So we're going to look at all the possibilities and talk to as many people as we possibly can."

NY Times says Karami will quit once again

Lebanon's Pro-Syrian Prime Minister to Quit
By REUTERS
Published: March 29, 2005
Filed at 1:42 p.m. ET
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon's pro-Syrian prime minister said on Tuesday he would step down because he could not persuade anti-Syrian opposition figures to join a national unity government to lead the country to elections due in May. In a move that could delay those polls, Omar Karami told reporters he was not willing to lead a cabinet that did not include both pro-Syrian loyalists and the opposition.
``I am not willing to form a government of this sort and I came to put the speaker in the picture,'' he said after meeting Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. ``I am going to see the president to inform him of this decision.''

Debka says pro-Syrian structures in lebanon are collapsing

though usually suspect, it's not much more so than the NY Times.

DEBKAfile exclusive military sources report complete collapse of pro-Syrian political and intelligence structure in Lebanon and abrupt withdrawal of all Syrian commands including key figure military intelligence chief General Ghazaleh. Pro-Syrian Lebanese PM Karame backs out of forming new government in Beirut. Lebanese secret service chief Gen. Raymond Azar has fled to Paris. Internal Security Forces head Gen. Ali al-Hajj about to quit.

Welcome to the blogosphere Poli-yy

Saw some nice comments of my site, thought Id reciprocate...

Is President Bush intent on ending Assad's regime in Syria and his hold on Lebanon? Josh Landis says yes. I agree

Joshua Landis: "Is George Bush intent on bringing down the house of Asad?I think it is. Bashar has become the anti-Bush in the Middle East, despite his early intentions to be a reformer. He champions stability; Bush champions revolution. He champions authoritarianism, Bush democracy and elections. Bashar argues Levantine society is too tribal and religiously divided for radical experiments and large doses of freedom; Washington says anything is better than the status quo and the evil of Baathism. “Stuff happens,” but the end result will be a new Middle Eastern consensus, one that will end terrorism. The Greater Middle East is prepared for democracy and will prove liberal, Bush insists. Bashar insists that Bush’s polities will lead to the death of many Arabs, increased terrorism, increased instability, and the loss of more Arab land in Palestine. Bush increasingly sees Bashar as the problem, standing in the way of the fourth wave of democratization. Bashar says Bush is the problem.There will be no compromise deals or true dialogue between Syria and the US so long as the neo-conservatives hold sway in the White House and Bashar refuses to insist on radical internal reform. Bashar’s miscalculations in Lebanon have done great harm to his position in the Arab world and perhaps, more importantly, at home."

The end is near, but requires constant focus and attention. Assad has few options.

This is Zimbabwe

Blog highlighting Zimbabwe and the election on March 31, hat tip to www.Publiuspundit.com

Daily Star: Syrian Thieves Stealing from Lebanon

hat tip: http://beirut2bayside.blogspot.com/

Syria's hold over Lebanon worth $750 million a year

By Agence France Presse (AFP) Tuesday, March 22, 2005

BEIRUT: As Syria's domination of Lebanon begins to wane, favored Syrian oligarchs face the potential loss of some of the estimated $750 million a year in under-the-table receipts they have become accustomed to. The $750 million is part of the $2 billion that Syria earns directly and indirectly from its ties to Lebanon, according to recent studies.
.......Economist Joe Faddoul, head of the consultant group Istisharat, said: "The direct and indirect takings [by Syria] each come to $1 billion, or $2 billion a year."
He pointed out that since factional violence here came to an end 12 years ago, Syria has taken home $24 billion from its ties to Lebanon, which Faddoul said helps explain the Lebanese public debt of $35 billion.
"The official line is that the debt is the result of waste and corruption," he said, although in fact it is a result of "a coherent and organized system of direct and indirect payments."
He cited the example of telephone "piracy" thanks to two pro-Syrian entitites operating in Lebanon.
A well-placed source here has said that "tens of millions of dollars in telephone receipts go directly into Syrian pockets each month."
Faddoul also pointed to instances where he said Syrian parties benefit from the sale of domestic heating oil on the underground market as well as construction bids won by Syrian companies to build roads and port facilities.
The state electricity utility, Electricite du Liban, sustains annual losses of $500 million, part of which is due to the fact that some of its production is "stolen and not recorded in regions where the authorities are close to the [Syrian] oligarchy," Faddoul said.
Another study, published recently by the newspaper An-Nahar, spoke of "a loss to the Lebanese economy of $20 billion in the past 12 years attributable to the Syrian presence." The study found that between 1993 and 2005 transfers home by Syrian workers in Lebanon came to $6.7 billion. At the same time the Lebanese market sustained "a flood of [cheap] Syrian goods" valued at $4 billion, according to the study.
Recent studies tend to combine the amounts taken in by the Syrian oligarchy and the impact of measures imposed by Syria that penalize Lebanese exports. -

Time for Jordan to reform: Daily Star

hat tip: http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/

Jordan must democratize to be spared U.S. wrathBy Rana Sabbagh-Gargour Commentary by Monday, March 28, 2005
Jordan must today make a clear choice to initiate bold political reform, or lose face at home and invite interference from abroad. For now it has managed to deflect close foreign scrutiny of its teetering political reform efforts, mostly on the strength of its backing for Washington's policies, the war on terror, and its diplomatic ties with Israel. However, these issues remain deeply unpopular in a country where the majority of the population is anti-American.
But time is no longer on the Jordanian government's side. A breeze of democracy is blowing across the Middle East, whether in Palestine and Iraq, both of which remain under foreign occupation, in autocratic Egypt and Saudi Arabia, or in Lebanon. Jordan realizes it has to move fast, now that U.S. President George W. Bush is waging a fierce battle to spread democracy and economic reform throughout the region. Hesitant policies during the past decade, which have turned Jordan into a "liberalized autocracy" overseeing a corporate economy rather than a constitutional monarchy with elected governments, do not work any longer.

Thanks to Albania. The multiplier effect of Freedom

hat tip to http://freethoughts.splinder.com/
Washington Times editorial by the Albanian Ambassador to the US

"We Albanians are a nation of freedom fighters who know something about living under oppression," Albanian Prime Minister Fatos Nano wrote in a letter to President Bush. "That is why we wholeheartedly support the American-led effort to free the people of Iraq. And though we are a small country with a small military, we are proud to stand side by side with our allies in the fight to end the reign of terror in Baghdad. The difference between the United States and the Islamic terrorists is this: The terrorists export death. The Americans export freedom. "

Opposition Rally in Zimbabwe

Telegraph UK highlights a rally for change in Zimbabwe

Opposition faces bitter struggle against a slanted system

By David Blair in Johannesburg

(Filed: 28/03/2005)
Thousands of Zimbabweans raised their hands for change yesterday at the largest rallyof the opposition campaign. Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, was greeted by a sea of open palms as he addressed 15,000 supporters in the capital, Harare.

Good and Bad.

Good=Egypt arrests some Muslim Brotherhood folks.

Bad=Who knows that they are not just arresting democracy protestors?

NY TImes:

"Cairo Police Arrest 100, Blocking Rally by OppositionBy MONA EL-NAGGAR Published: March 28, 2005
AIRO, March 27 - Thousands of policemen lining the streets of central Cairo on Sunday prevented a protest rally by the banned Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group, in front of Parliament. But protesters regrouped at two other locations, and the police arrested 100 of them, organizers said.
The arrests came a day after the police arrested 84 Muslim Brotherhood members in a nationwide sweep, officials of the group said. "

Nice post on Blaster's Blog on the complementary characteristics of democracy and market economies

lets keep the ascendancy going by working on those areas of the world, whose people we know instinctively deserve better...

"Their conclusion resonates with America's core values. We see individuals as equally created with a God-given right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. So we trust in the equal wisdom of free individuals to protect those rights: through democracy, as the process for best meeting shared needs in the face of competing desires; and through markets as the process for best meeting private needs in a way that expands opportunity."

Far Outliers Blog

Great mix of links and analysis at Far Outliers. Check it out. Everything from North Korea to Namibia.

Post by Black Star Journal highlights the President of Namibia, who has retired. Good for him.

Check it out, also, great stuff at http://popeyeafrica.blogspot.com/ in general.

Hat tip to http://faroutliers.blogspot.com/ for this and the North Korea post.

Nujoma bows out
For the first time since independence in 1990, Namibia has a president other than Sam Nujoma. Hifikepunye Pohamba has been sworn in to replace the man generally considered to be the father of Namibia's independance.TheMalau, over at the Salon of News and Thoughts blog, lauds the change. "Peaceful transition of power... now that's a cool concept!" he raves.Although the process was not perfect in Namibia, it was good enough for a democracy of only 15 years of full independence... we could learn that it is doable, and that it does not need to be perfect at the first try.

North Korea Zone blog

Check out this blog coop concentrating on North Korea. Just found it. Very interesting list of bloggers and information.

Why a "coalition of the willing" is better than one of "the coerced and bribed"

Yet another reason for always standing for those who seek freedom. They begin to trust you.....

NY TImes Week in Review:
"Enter the government of the United States. In an echo of the ambivalence many Iraqis feel about the American presence in their country, many Lebanese are skeptical of American intentions. Not least among their reasons is what they regard as the acquiescence of the United States to the continuation of Syria's military presence here in 1990, in exchange for Syria's joining the coalition that was then being built to oust Mr. Hussein from Kuwait.

"The Syrians had a mandate from the United States" to keep their troops in Lebanon, said a former Lebanese minister who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

For many Lebanese, what made significant change possible in Lebanon was not the elections in Iraq, but the events of Sept. 11, 2001, which prompted the Bush administration to re-examine its reluctance to challenge the Syrian regime, as well as other Arab dictatorships that had backed terrorist groups. When the Lebanese began calling for a Syrian withdrawal, the Syrian government had to defy not just the Lebanese people, but the United States as well.

For that reason, more than a few Lebanese believe, President Bush's demands are proving decisive in driving the Syrians out. "This enthusiasm for democracy may not happen again," said Khalil Karam, professor of international relations at University of St. Joseph here, speaking of American foreign policy. "Without it, we could not stop Syria."

Back at Mr. Hariri's tomb, Mr. Salha, the factory worker, offered his own grudging invitation, if only to ensure that his homeland finally frees itself of Syrian domination.

"We are not against Bush," Mr. Salha said. "If he wants to make us safe and free, that's great. Let him do it."

My response to AAG of OrientalismEgypt

I think AAG confuses freedom and democracy with perfection. As we all know, democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the rest.
1. AAG says that Afghanistan has become a "narco-state". In fact, opium production has increased, yes, but to focus on that one issue, which is currently being prosecuted is to miss the big picture…Boys and girls are now attending schools for the first time, children can fly a kite when they wish, and people play soccer in the soccer stadiums instead of being regularly executed them. To suggest, like Michael Moore, that the Taliban were better at "keeping order" just calls you out as a murder-loving islamo-fascist., not to mention that he defends "tyrannical regimes like Syria and Iran" by "preferring that" than an 10-million voter elected Karzai democracy. Karzai and co. may not control every area of the country, much like The Pakistani government doesn't control the border areas like Waziristan, but both of those govts. Are working on the problem, making deals, prosecuting the murderers, like is their job. Clearly Pakistan has further to go in democratic efforts too, but one step at a time here.
2. I see democracy when murdering criminals are turned in by their neighbors, as is happening in Iraq regularly now… and did also happen in Fallujah. As you well know AAG, weapons are against Allah, when they are used in a Mosque. They are also against the rules of war. I see democracy in action after the illegal and amoral actions in Abu Graibh, when soldiers are prosecuted for their failings.
3. I agree with you, and it is one of the reasons why I started blogging, that the millions paid to Mubarak are a problem. The US, and you will read this many times here on this site, has for far too long, supported dictators in the middle east for the sake of stability and oil. But please remember that we were fighting the Cold war at the time, and Presidents do have to make decisions. The benefit for you is that murderers on 9/11 killed my countrymen, and instead of using terrible weapons to end your civilizations, we decided to risk our blood and treasure to make your lives better and export democracy to your region. As you may have noticed, our President Bush has put on notice those dictators whom with we had sided with in the past…Mubarak and the Saudis. They must increase democracy in their countries. This will happen, and has already started - Mubarak is allowing elections, and the Saudis have alrready held ones. They are not perfect, but please be assured that we are on the right side of this issue - your freedom is required for our security.
4. Israel was the only democracy in the middle east until recently, and we will defend that country's right to exist. Take it or leave it, because that's an issue where we wont budge. However, we are being fair, and wil continue to push the Israelis towards peace. They are free to defend themselves from those who wish to push them into the sea, but there will be peace eventually.

To recap, AAG. The US has made mistakes in the past in supporting dictatorships for the sake of stability, but be on notice that we are on the side of freedom and democracy for all now, as we realize our security depends on your freeodm.
I look forward to convincing you more of this in the near future. Be well
jp

Conversation with AAG of http://orientalismegypt.blogspot.com/

AAG said...
I think you confuse democracy with further subjegation of our populations. Now dont get me wrong, i am not defending tyranical regimes in Syria or Iran, but i defenetly prefer that than an "Allawi-Karzai" model of democracy. Keep tapping the tip of the volcano, and it might explode in your face....
3:56 AM


jp said...
I must vehemently disagree with AAG here, and unfortunately can't post a full response, but will do later. How could a total of 18 million votes in 2 countrys have preferred "further subjugation"? They experienced how tyrannical their prior regimes were and with our help, threw off those chains. I understand that you in Egypt might be skeptical of our motives, but understand that 1. we have few other options to defend ourselves from total destruction from madmen willing to die to kill us; other than exporting democracy 2. We realize that supporting "friendly dictators" is anathema and 3. the Taliban and Saddam were manaical murderers to begin with. What could be bad about getting rid of them? We have tried stability for too long, we now know it doesnt work. I will post more on this later. jp
10:12 AM


AAG said...
JP
With all due respect, not to burst your bubble but afganistan has become a Narco state, opium production has more than quadroupled. Karzai goverment controls kabul and the surounding nieghborhoods. even the bloody crazy-ass taliban maintained better law and order, the afganis were safer under them.
JP, we are worlds apart, but i want to give you the benifit of the doubt, i want to believe that you want to "spread"democracy. but when i see fallujah levelled, i dont see democracy. when i see a fallujan shot in cold blood on the floor of a mosque i dont see democracy. when i see Abu ghraib, i dont see democracy. when i see 2 billion a year for mubarak's coffers i dont see democracy. when i see unlimted support for israel and fuck the palestinians i dont see democracy.
i finished high school in the U.S by the way as an exchange student, and still have people that i consider family there,plus loads of friends. But i make a clear seperation between good average american who are very decent folk, and a morbid goverment that is out to take over the world.I am not alone in holding this opinion, many around the world agree, hell, many in the U.S itself agree.
Sorry JP, i want to believe you, but i cant....

Carrier movements towards Syria and Iran?

Flaming Duck highlights a Regime Change Iran post speculating on US Aircraft Carrier movements in the eastern Med and Persian Gulf. Apparently we will have 3 carriers in the area for the first time since Feb '04.
Regime Change heard it from Stratfor last week (pssssst, pass it on)

Dr. Ahmad Albaghdadi is requesting info on how to apply for political assylum. Please assist if you can.

A request for political asylum
Ahmad Albaghdadi*


If you state your opinion about the teaching of a religious curriculum, and such action will lead to imprisonment and a ban from writing and a promise to pay bail to stop the prison sentence, which is the ruling that came out this week, then this means that the “knife had already reached the throat” even if it was done under the cover of law. Therefore, there is no escape from this problem, which was done under the cover of law, other than to request political asylum in one of the western countries.

This is not only to protect my freedom, but also to protect “life” as well. What is it to gain by staying in a country that does not respect one’s dignity? What is it to gain by staying in a country where you cannot be certain about the protection of your life? What is to gain by staying in a country when such action brings trouble to members of your own family and distract you from your profession? The writer Abdullateef Alduaij did the right thing when he emigrated from Kuwait and settled in the United States. He now writes from there, and hence he saved his dignity and the dignity of his family. He also protected his freedom of expression, and saved himself from the humiliation of prison, which is quite possible, given the laws in Kuwait.

After this ruling, I am forced to request political asylum publicly, and through the internet, to a western country. This is not because I hate my country, but because I hate its tyrannical laws. Through those laws courts do not hesitate to imprison someone who stated an opinion that is not directly related to religion. This is so, because what I know is that Islam does not require a Muslim to memorize the Holy Quraan. The proof is from the holy Quraan itself, when it says in what it means: “read what you can read from the Quraan,” and also a saying that “Alikhlaas” verse is equivalent to a third of the Quraan, when a muslim recites it.

I did not research one day in the subject of political asylum, since I thought that my dignity is respected in my country, and my life is safe. But now it is different. It is clear that the goal of every enemy of mine (and they are many in this country) to place me in prison. Since I do not know the right way to request the asylum, I request from anyone who knows how to request such asylum to provide me with the necessary information by Fax at (965) 4721840, or by using e-mail at (awtaad@yahoo.com). I will be very thankful for the information.

I have to admit that the religious movement has won in its battle against me. I congratulate them, and also congratulate our tyrannical country for this victory. Hence, I will stop writing about religious subjects. It is also important to note that the host country will not incur any expenses, since I can live on my retirement salary and on writing bonuses I receive from newspapers. Also, I would like to note that the first ruling in court regarding my case was “not guilty.”

*Professor at Kuwait University
(Middle East Transparent posted yesterday, on its Arabic page, a petition in solidarity with Dr. Albaghdadi.)

By the way...

if you all didn't realize that it was a bit more crowded in here, today was Daily Demarche day.
Thanks very much for the link doctor.

Italians say Bush is fighting for freedom and democracy, not oil and conquest. What a concept !

via instapundit and (Via Harry's Place).

The Left, America, and World Freedom.........DS secretary, Piero FassinoBut Mr Fassino has said at least two, potentially shattering, new things.The first is that when Mr Bush spells out that he is fighting “for freedomand democracy in Arab countries,he is turning on its head - positively,according to Mr Fassino - the traditional policy of Republicanadministrations that supported fascist military dictatorships in SouthAmerica in the name of political realism. Mr Bush is not Henry Kissinger,and this cannot be ignored. The second point is that the democratic fermentevident almost everywhere in the Arab world has its origins in a generalprocess of secularization that has not left Muslim societies unscathed.This, too, cannot be ignored by those who, like Mr Fassino, side withpeople laying claim to these values where hitherto they have been denied,and refuse to support the oppressors merely for fear of jeopardizing thestatus quo.It may not be a revolution, but it is a very important step forward. It islikely that Mr Fassino will now attract the fire of Italy's neoconservatives, who will accuse him of not taking a clear stand, and ofthe pacifists at any price, who will accuse him of opportunism. Thesethings happen, when you are looking for a way forward without theassistance of aging, ever less comforting, certainties. They are no causefor alarm.

Here's another Kyrgyz blog

These peace corps kids are everywhere !

Sean's Peace Corps Kyrgyz blog

Check out Sean's Peace Corps Kyrgyz blog. He actually lives there.

Great roundup of the Kyrgyzstan rebellion

If you haven't heard, of course....

Regime Change Iran highlights Secretary Rice's recent strong pro Iranian democracy statements

"the Middle East is changing. And those states that don't recognize thatthe Middle East is changing...[that] try to halt that change – states likeSyria or Iran – need now to be, by the international community, isolatedand condemned":"You have a growing chorus of people in the Middle East who are expressingwhat I think we always knew, which is that you don't have to imposedemocracy. You impose tyranny. Democracy and the desire to be free [are] asnatural as breathing."Secretary of State Rice says that in Iran the "unelected few of mullahs"are "going in the opposite direction with a population that has clearlydemonstrated that it wants a democratic future." Ms. Rice says, "What theinternational community needs to do…is to come alongside these people…andto say to them, 'We stand with you in the changes that you're trying tomake.'"

Libyan opposition leader Fathi el-Jahmi ill in prison

via http://freethoughts.splinder.com/
Democracy efforts by Americans needed in Libya

Imprisoned Libyan Opposition Leader Dangerously IllBY ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun March 24, 2005WASHINGTON -
Libyan opposition leader Fathi el-Jahmi has grown dangerouslyill in prison according to a report that will be released today by anindependent group of physicians allowed to visit him in February.The report from Physicians for Human Rights concludes that Mr. el-Jahmi,who is 63 years old and has been in and out of prison since he firstcrossed Muammar Gadhafi in 1973, is suffering from complications fromdiabetes and dangerously high blood pressure. His symptoms include vertigo,sleeplessness, nausea, and fever. The report recommends that Libyanauthorities transfer him to a long-term care facility and allow him tochoose his doctors. It pointedly says that its "assessment shows that Mr.el-Jahmi's physicians are not doing enough to reduce his diabetes-relatedcomplications."Mr. el-Jahmi, a former governor of al-Khaleej province and an early ally ofColonel Muammar Gadhafi, was one of the first dissidents to publiclycriticize Libya's leader during the 1970s. On March 26, 2004, he wasreleased from jail only to be abducted by security services 14 days later -along with his wife and two sons. Today, he is being held at an undisclosedprison in Libya. While he is not charged with any crime, his most recentarrest coincides with a series of interviews he gave on Arab satellitetelevision stations calling on Colonel Gadhafi to hold regular electionsand allow basic political rights. Mr. el-Jahmi's wife and children werelater released.

Claudia Rosett and the NY Sun on Syrian Dissidents

via Cliff May and http://www.defenddemocracy.org/
Claudia Rosett is writing about freedom again....
Syrian Dissidents Find Their Voice As Lebanon Provides a Megaphone
BY CLAUDIA ROSETT - Special to the SunMarch 23, 2005
BEIRUT, Lebanon - With Lebanese democrats speaking up and Syria's occupyingforces pulling out, it may sound unsurprising that one of Beirut's leadingArabic newspapers ran a searing critique this week of Baathist rule inDamascus, under the headline: "Why Lebanon Is Becoming Larger and SyriaSmaller."Except the author of this piece is not Lebanese, but Syrian, writing - atserious risk - from Damascus. Signing himself as Hakam al-Baba, thisjournalist goes on to identify himself as someone who has worked for thepast 20 years for a Syrian state newspaper, Tishrin. And like the Lebanesewho for the past five weeks have been tearing down posters of Syriandictator Bashar Assad, Mr. al-Baba of Damascus is saying he has had enough.

4th wave of Democracy just beginning, according to Dan Drezner

Dan Drezner says that the fourth wave of democracy is beginning...i got started blogging just in time ;)

...The fourth wave of democratization?
Events in Kyrgyzstan combinedwith previous events in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Ukraine, Afghanistan andGeorgia, are making me wonder if maybe, just maybe, we're at the beginningof the fourth wave of democratization. In his book The Third Wave, SamuelHuntingtion observed that previous moments of democratic regime change tookplace in clusters. The first (small) wave was in the early 1800's, thesecond took place immediately after the Second World War, and the thirdwave started in Southern Europe in 1974 and ended with the collapse of theSoviet Union in 1991.All waves of democratization are followed by counter-waves, which happenedin the mid-to-late nineties, with authoritarian and semi-authoritarianregimes emerging in a lot of the post-Soviet states. However, the exogenousshock of 9/11, the Rose Revolution in Georgia, and the strong rhetoric ofthe Bush administration on this front has combined to trigger some seriouspolitical change across the Eurasian land mass.The Kyrgyz example is likely to send chills down the spine of two muchlarger countries -- Russia and China. In Moscow, Vladimir Putin can't bethrilled with the fact that he can't have a tea break without some countryin his near abroad overthrowing a ruler that was on decent terms withPutin. The fact that ousted Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev is reportedlyfleeing to Russia will highlight this painful fact.As for China, Beijing's first preference is not to have a democraticrevolution take place in Central Asia so close to Xinjiang -- China'swestern-most province with plenty of restive Uighurs chafing at Beijing'scontrol.

American thinker, Herb Meyer article - Bush leads world revolutions...

Revolution is spreading the world with a little assist from President Bush.....Herb's also perfectly correct about developments today in Kyrgyzstan...that they wouldn't shoot their own people.

A revolutionary change
March 18th, 2005
Herb Meyer on American Thinker.com
Each political revolution is unique, but in all revolutions the decisive moment comes when the crowd surges and the dictator turns to his militaryleaders and gives the order to shoot. If the order is obeyed and the armyshoots into the crowd, there's a good chance the revolution will fail andthe dictator will survive, at least for a while. But if the order to shoot isn't obeyed it's over. With each passing year, it becomes less likely that the order to shoot willbe obeyed – which means it's becoming more likely that revolutions againstdictatorships will succeed. This is precisely what has already happened inGeorgia and Ukraine. The question now is whether this also will happen inLebanon, in Syria, in Iran, and in suddenly-volatile Kyrgyzstan. And will it happen “ down the road a bit“ in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and still further down the road perhaps in Russia, China and even in North Korea. There are several reasons why the generals are growing ever more reluctantto shoot into the crowds, including the presence of television cameras andthe very real fear of one day being hauled before the International Courtof Justice as a war criminal. But the overriding reason why the generalsare growing reluctant to shoot is this: they don't want to shoot their own children.

Orange Belarus?

via Orange Revolution andPublius Pundit

Publius Pundit is reporting on the merger of 2 major opposition parties inBelarus. They will be headed by a former rector of the Belarusian StateUniversity, Alexander Kozulin. The ultimate goal is the overthrow of thedespotic Lukashenko regime in the 2006 Presidential elections. This iscertainly an important first step. We will hope for and support futuremovements that will bring them closer to a free Belarus. - OECThe manifesto was signed by Alexander Kozulin, former rector of BelarusianState University (BDU), and more than 80 others, made up of universitypeople and writers from Minsk but primarily a motley group of unknownpublic activists or ordinary workers and peasants from the provinces.

Registan analysis of Kyrgyz events

Nathan, from Registan says that Bush doesnt deserve all the credit for the Kyrgyzstan developments, but perhaps some of it.I appreciate that Matthew Yglesias gave us a mention at TAPPED, I reallydo, but Let me just remind that paying slightly more attention to US policy inCentral Asia than the public at large does not expert opinion make. I've got nothing against pundits, but they do often fail to grasp more than thecountours (which is why I stick to what I know). Matthew cites a tepid USresponse, but there are things he may not have read that are not so tepid.And, US criticism was often and vocal enough within Kyrgyzstan (because,who would come to that press conference in DC?) that it seriously pissedoff Akayev and did embolden the opposition.I'm not trying to give Bush credit. The Kyrgyz deserve all the credit forwhat they've accomplished just as they'll deserve the blame if things go wrong. But, Matthew's attempt to head off any credit for the administration(and it does deserve some, even if he's right that the Bushadministrationis policy is a continuation of Clinton's, though, in myopinion, it has more teeth) makes me wonder if he'll jump up to blame Bush if things do go wrong (as the Justin Logan's and Justin/Dennis Raimondo's of the world are chomping at the bit to do).

Problem though.....Egypt jailed Ayman Nour again. He will be the main candidate against Mubarak in the upcoming Presidential election

Once again, freedom, as Instapundit keeps saying...freedom is a process, and takes work and effort.

Jane Novak helps highlight the plight of a Yemeni journalist, and now he is free

I'm glad to think that I had a small part in this....very very small.
Congratulations Jane !

Cliff May's comment on democracy movements

There are developments galore !

Cliff May highlights Claudia Rosett's conversation with the Vietnamese Sharansky, Dr. Que

.....So at an appointed hour, I picked up the phone in New York and spoke with Dr. Que, a 63-year-old doctor who has by now spent almost half his life fighting for liberty in Vietnam. Given that Vietnam's secret police almost certainly eavesdrop on any contact he has with the wider world, I was prepared for a discreet and carefully phrased conversation, meant to minimize his risk. Dr. Que was not. He got straight to the point: "What I want is liberty for my people." The question now, he said, "is how to make regime change in Vietnam." For democratization of his country, he added, "support from the rest of the world is important." Specifically, he wants Hanoi's decaying communist party to "put forward a timetable for free and fair elections."
Dr. Que does not have access to the daily diet of news that feeds the free world. But given the feats of modern technology to spread information, he knows enough about what is now happening in the Middle East so that he wished to share his views on how America's intervention in Iraq is like the war in Vietnam, and how it isn't. The similarity, he says, "is the same fighting spirit for freedom." The difference, he adds, is that in the fight for freedom, the side America is on "will triumph this time."
Why?
"The world is changing," says Dr. Que. "There are more opportunities than ever."

I'm not thrilled with what MEMRI has called Turkish media's expression of solidarity with Syria

Read it and have a think...
The Turkish media has recently expressed a high level of solidarity with Syria directed primarily against the U.S. It called upon Turks to travel to Syria in order to demonstrate solidarity in the face of alleged American military plans against the Syrian regime. [1]
Next month Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer will conduct his visit to Damascus, as planned. This visit was the basis for a further deterioration of U.S.-Turkish relations, following a comment by U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Eric Edelman which was interpreted as criticism of Sezer's visit. [2] The comment aroused harsh reactions in the Turkish media, with widespread calls for his removal from Turkey. The subsequent resignation of Ambassador Edelman was reported by the Turkish media with a sense of victory.

full quotes of media statements are on the link.

Oman, Bahrain and UAE - US Free Trade - will it force Saudia Arabia to liberalize economy and politics?

Bilaterals.org once again...
......Oman will be the second GCC state after Bahrain to sign FTA. The UAE is also on the course, having finsihed advanced negotiations with United States in Abu Dhabi during past few days, with Washington allaying Saudi Arabia’s fears that an FTA with a GCC state would weaken the six-member Gulf Co-operation Council which was founded in Abu Dhabi in 1980.
Riyadh would also be included in the fold once it becomes a WTO member, Novelli told a press conference before the start of negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
A statement released by the US Embassy here said: “An FTA with UAE and Oman will build on the FTAs that we already have with Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain. It will also encourage the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council to adopt standards that promote trade and investment.” .....

US Phillippines .Malasyia & South Korea Free trade update

Looks to me like not only is the administration trying to open free trade across the middle east, it is also looking to draw a cordon across china...the previous post also mentioned potential agreements with South Korea. that would be huge. They are our 7th largest largest trading partner. phillippines is number 26, malaysia is number 10

US urges Philippines to sign FTA to boost economy, maintain competitiveness
Thu Mar 17, 2005
MANILA (AFP) - US Assistant Trade Representative Barbara Weisel urged the Philippines to sign a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) with Washington to boost its underperforming economy and keep it globally competitive.
........Weisel said an FTA with the United States, the world’s biggest economy, would allow a partner country to stay globally competitive.
"Countries around the world are liberalizing and it is important that as this decision is considered by the Philippines government, that the importance of maintaining its relative competitiveness not just in the region but globally is carefully considered," she told a news conference. .........The United States has already signed an FTA with Singapore and is in the early stage of negotiating a similar agreement with Thailand under President George W. Bush’s "Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative."

US - Malaysia & Egypt Free Trade update

The Star, Malaysia
17 March 2005
Malaysia recommended for FTA talks with US
BY JOHAN FERNANDEZ IN NEW YORK
MALAYSIA is among five countries that the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) has recommended that the US administration explore the possibility of negotiating free trade agreements (FTA) with.
The other four countries are Egypt, India, New Zealand and South Korea. .........After extensive discussions within NAM’s International Economic Policy Committee, a consensus was reached to recommend to the administration to begin FTA discussions with Egypt, India, Malaysia, New Zealand and South Korea and to place the other five on the watch list. Except for Egypt, the other countries are from the Asia-Pacific region.

US - OMAN Free trade update - yet another lever to push freedom

Great site, Bilaterals.org has news on global trade. wonderful info for a new freak like me

MUSCAT - Building on a spree of free-trade deals across the region, Oman is in the process of signing a free-trade agreement with the United States by the end of 2005 or early 2006.
The Oman-US negotiations on free trade, which begun on March 12, 2005, entails enormous scope for consumers and the domestic economy to witness dramatic changes in trade.
The proposed Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) will strip away most barriers to bilateral trade between the two countries. .......

Police Raid on AlQaeda gang in Kumasi, Ghana

The global fight continues...
http://www.myjoyonline.com/frontarts.asp?p=21&a=12484

A combined team of police and army officers on Tuesday evening organized a swoop in Ala Bar a suburb of Kumasi in search of arms. The security forces numbering over thirty say they had reports that a cash of arms had been stashed in the area for criminal activities. Ala Bar is alleged to be the den of criminals in the Kumasi Metropolis. Earlier this month a youth group calling from themselves Al-Qaeda attacked some residents of the Kumasi metropolis for the death of their colleague. The police have arrested a number of people for possessing drugs. When contacted the Deputy Ashanti Regional Police Commander ACP Opare Ayensu declined to comment on the search saying “We are searching for arms and we have been able to track down some drug peddlers here at the Ala Bar area, I don’t want to give you any further information regarding our security situation.”Report: Sampon Lardi Ayenini

Roaring like Lions

I need to start finding more original stuff, but Real Clear Politics links to this Gulfnews.com post by Youssef M. Ibrahim, a former Middle East correspondent for the New York Times and Energy Editor of the Wall Street Journal, is Managing Director of the Dubai-based Strategic Energy Investment Group.

.....Above all, imagine where the Lebanese snowball, now rolling, will stop. This small Arab people of 4 million living inside Lebanon and 10 million outside are roaring like lions. And 250 million other Arabs are watching in awe.
Lebanese Christians, Shiites and Druze started out demanding the truth over who murdered their Sunni Muslim leader, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14.
What they got was beyond imagining. They eyeballed Syria into ending its 30 years of occupation. They toppled one prime minister who was a Syrian puppet, they destabilised the whole apparatus of the secret Lebanese police and are about to topple their president.
Before they are done, they will have created a model of peaceful revolt or ignited an armed one. ......

European population dearth...again, I'm harping on this, but 20 years from now, people will be asking...where'd all the people go???

Chrekoff links to an AEI presentation on the Europe population dearth ( he also linked to the Steyn piece below)

Basically they are all saying, europe is shrinking, blah blah blah, and the Muslims who immigrated years ago are now taking over.
This is one more reason that Democratizing the middle east NOW is critical, so as to eliminate the orignal sources of rage in the region.


Is Europe Dying?
Notes on a Crisis of Civilizational Morale
By George Weigel
Posted: Thursday, March 17, 2005
EUROPEAN OUTLOOK
AEI Online
Publication Date: March 17, 2005

Europe’s anemic birthrates are the most concrete manifestation of a spiritual crisis in the homeland of Western civilization. That crisis is driven by the marginalization of Christianity in European cultural, intellectual, and public life over the last century. America’s “Europe problem” and Europe’s “America problem” have been staple topics of transatlantic debate for the past several years. Political leaders, media commentators, and businessmen usually discuss those problems in terms of policy differences: differences over prosecuting the war on terrorism, differences over the role of the United Nations in world affairs, differences over the Kyoto Protocol on the global environment, differences over Iraq. The policy differences are real. Attempts to understand them in political, strategic, and economic terms alone will ultimately fail, however, because such explanations do not reach deeply enough into the human texture of contemporary Europe. To put the matter directly: Europe, and especially western Europe, is in the midst of a crisis of civilizational morale. The most dramatic manifestation of that crisis is not to be found in Europe’s fondness for governmental bureaucracy or its devotion to fiscally shaky health care schemes and pension plans, in Europe’s lagging economic productivity or in the appeasement mentality that some European leaders display toward Islamist terrorism. No, the most dramatic manifestation of Europe’s crisis of civilizational morale is the brute fact that Europe is depopulating itself. Europe’s below-replacement-level birthrates have created situations that would have been unimaginable when the institutions of European integration were formed in the late 1940s and early 1950s. By the middle of this century, if present fertility patterns continue, 60 percent of the Italian people will have no personal experience of a brother, a sister, an aunt, an uncle, or a cousin;[1] Germany will lose the equivalent of the population of the former East Germany; and Spain’s population will decline by almost one-quarter. Europe is depopulating itself at a rate unseen since the Black Death of the fourteenth century.[2] And one result of that is a Europe that is increasingly “senescent” (as British historian Niall Ferguson has put it).[3] When an entire continent, healthier, wealthier, and more secure than ever before, fails to create the human future in the most elemental sense--by creating the next generation--something very serious is afoot. I can think of no better description for that “something” than to call it a crisis of civilizational morale. Understanding its origins is important in itself, and important for Americans because some of the acids that have eaten away at European culture over the past two centuries are at work in the United States, and indeed throughout the democratic world.
.......

Fools ! Sex is Good ! Growth comes with More babies

Another Steyn link...Ive posted on this before, but again, You European Fools ! Sex is Good ! More babies means more growth !

......
But human inventiveness depends on humans - and that's the one thing we really are running out of. When it comes to forecasting the future, the birth rate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2005, it's hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2025 (or 2033, or 2041, or whenever they get around to finishing their Anger Management, Systemic Racism and Gay Studies degrees). If that's not a political issue, what is? To cite only the most obviously affected corner of the realm, what's the long-term future of the Scottish National Party if there are no Scottish nationals?
......Since 1945, a multiplicity of government interventions - state pensions, subsidised higher education, higher taxes to pay for everything - has so ruptured traditional patterns of inter-generational solidarity that in Europe a child is now an optional lifestyle accessory. By 2050, Estonia's population will have fallen by 52 per cent, Bulgaria's by 36 per cent, Italy's by 22 per cent. The hyper-rationalism of post-Christian Europe turns out to be wholly irrational: what's the point of creating a secular utopia if it's only for one generation?
.......

Reform Syria

I linked to a set aof new Syrian blogs, one of which is Reform Syria, an effort by Farid Ghadry. He writes of his new blog below. Please chekc out his site. Lebanon and Syria was my initial focus, due to the Hariri assassination, and I believe that change will come, whether Assad works with us, or against. Americans are standing with you Farid.

"Syrian reforms is fast becoming an issue of great importance to the security of the world community. Support for violent groups and organizations, using the banking system to launder terrorist money, and engaging with Russia to bring them back into the Cold War era of the eighties are all forcing the west to finally stand-up and pay attention to Syria. Furthermore, Syria has two friends in the US administration: Some diplomats at the State Department who believe that Syria is a friend (These people have supported Syria like a father supports a son. How can you tell a father that his son is bad !! He'll never believe it nor accept it) and the intelligence community who wants to use Syrian willingness to "torture" people to extract information that we can never know if it has any value because that information is secret.We do not believe that Syria can reform because a tyranny must have an enemy to keep the people busy looking anywhere but to their own misery inside the country. Also, a minority rule such as the one governed by the Allawites representing close to 5% of the population governs by dividing and conquering. Any semblance of unity or soverignity of reason becomes a threat to their dictum.The only way to save ourselves from Ba'athist violent tendencies is to propose a "Roadmap" to disengage from Syria totally and to engage with dissidents to weaken Syria from within."

Thanks to Sgt_E and all the men and women "over there"

i was visiting Reform Syria at , and read a piece by Sgt_E, at on an experience he had, serving in Iraq, while responding to a call, which was not to fight, but to help a girl who ultimately died. I wrote the following to Sgt_E, and hope he reads it.

"I want to thank you for your service, and also for sharing your experiences with the rest of us. I can't hope understand the raw emotion on a regular basis you must have and still feel. My father foguht in Viet Nam, and while proud of his service, still has emotion that he still fights. Please do what you can to express your emotions to those you trust. It will help. On a positive note, I hope you realize what great good you men did over there, helping to free 25 million people from a madman, and unleashing the potential for the kind of reform in those countries by way of improving prospects for democracy that will ultimately end terrorism by forcing governments to focus on internal problems, not external scapegoats. I say thank you, and that many more people than you ever know will say thank you, once they realize what good you have done."

The purpose of my site, now that hopefully most of the fighting is now over, is to take advantage of the structural shift in the middle east, and promote democracy. Democracy, ultimately is the only thing that will keep us safe here in the US, from terrorism, as we are an open economy, with unlimited targets. We can fight them oversees, but we now have to fight 50 million fewer potential terrorists, as Afghanistan and Iraq are now mostly free. This dynamic will continue, and potentially speed up, as Syria and Iran are now being squeezed tighter and tighter, by a President with clear vision, courage of conviction, and 4 years to work.
thanks again guys.

Democracy forces governments to focus on problems, not scapegoats

Maryanne Stroud blogs from Egypt at Living In Egypt

"Trash is a problem anywhere. In Egypt there have been various solutions to the problem, none of which have really worked that well. First, to understand, we have to talk about the parameters. There are over 70 million people living in a narrow strip of arable land along the Nile. The rest of the country is desert, other than the oases which harbour a small percentage of the population. So we could get rid of our trash in the desert, right?That was the theory in the past, along with the habit of tossing it into the river to carry off to the sea. But 70 million inhabitants create a lot of garbage and the river can't handle it anymore, not if it is going to provide water for the Delta downstream from Cairo. The problem with taking it out into the desert is the fact that there are no roads out there, other than the roads that are leading to new settlements, and the people in the new settlements don't want garbage there either.Cairo, with a population of about 20 million, has had a trash problem for millenia and even now we have a group of professional trash recyclers near the city who have made their lives around the collection of garbage and the resale or reuse of usable items. They are known as the Zebaleen, or the garbage people, and the life they lead is not a very pretty one, but the job that they do is essential and well done. They will be seen throughout Cairo and the surrounding areas with their donkey carts picking up the trash to be taken off to their settlements near old Cairo. Cloth will be recycled into rag kilims and paper into recycled paper. Glass finds its way back into the souq where hand-blown vases, glasses,and dishes of lovely shades of blue are sold to visitors......

Blog highlight - Regnum Crucis

Although the War on Terror is really the only reason why we are only now talking about freedom in the middle east, I haven't before directly addressed the war on terror, and so I thought I would introduce dan Darling at Regnum Crucis, as his site is amazing.

Dan has basically compiled everything you need to know about the actual war on Terrorism, from everything to Countries actively supporting OBL's gang, to operational successes against Zarqawi, to the status of anti terror efforts and who are the important terror players in many countries around the world, from Belgium to Chechnya.
Publishing this amount of information in the quantity and quality is amazing to me, and I can only guess as to when Dan's book is coming out...

Michel Leedeen says Faster on Iran and Syria

THE FIRE IN IRANForget about diplomacy, this is war.

by Michael A. Ledeen

NRO March 17, 2005

From al-Reuters, we have a masterpiece of disinformation:
ISFAHAN — Iranian authorities beat up and tear gassed exuberant young revellers as they breathed new life into a pre-Islamic fire festival with a night of dancing, flirting and fireworks. The Islamic Republic, which has an awkward relationship with its ancient Zoroastrian religion, only gave guarded recognition to the "Chaharshanbe Souri" festival last year.
The Islamic republic does not have "an awkward relationship" with Zoroastrianism. It forbids Zoroastrian practices, including the celebration of the Zoroastrian New Year, Norooz. Forget about "guarded recognition;" there is a ban. The mullahs know something that al-Reuters apparently either doesn't know, or doesn't choose to report: that there is a big Zoroastrian revival under way in Iran, another sign of the hollowness of the Islamic republic, and the hostility of the Iranian people to their leaders. And to say that the authorities "beat up and gassed" some "revelers" is quite an understatement, since, on the evening of March 15h, there were very large-scale demonstrations all over Iran, combining the Norooz celebrations with calls for the downfall of the regime itself. Effigies of top mullahs were burned in the streets. But al-Reuters makes it sound like a frat party that just got a bit out of hand:
Hundreds of people poured onto the streets in Tehran and other cities for a rare night of partying. Public revelry is unusual in Iran where the authorities consider it to be at odds with the country's strict moral codes.
The IRNA news agency said police used tear gas in more than four places in Tehran. Vigilantes were also seen beating up a group of boys in the central city of Isfahan.The Iranian student group headquartered in Texas provides us with a considerably more accurate — if somewhat ungrammatical — picture:
These clashes happened as brutal militiamen attacked Iranians who transformed the already hardly tolerated celebration into protest action and show of "un-Islamic" joy. Most areas of the Capital and cities, such as, Esfahan, Mahabad, Shiraz, Rasht, Kermanshah, Babol, Sannandaj, Dezful, Mashad, Ahwaz, Marivan, Khoram-Abad, Zabol, Baneh, Tabriz, Hamedan and Oroomiah (former Rezai-e) were scenes of sometimes unprecedented street fights between the regime forces and groups of Iranians.
In fact, according to Iranians with whom I have spoken, there were monster demonstrations in eleven provinces and 37 cities, and many thousands — one source said more than 30,000 — people were arrested, some only briefly, others shipped off to the infamous prisons and torture chambers of the regime. The most dramatic events took place in Shiraz, where the demonstrators directed a chant toward Washington: "Bush, you told us to rise up, and so we have. Why don't you act?"
Which is precisely the right question. The president publicly promised the Iranian people that the United States would support them if they acted to win their own freedom, and the Iranians are now calling on Bush to make good on that promise.
The problem is that the administration may have outwitted itself, as has happened in the past. It seems that our current tactic is to set a series of traps for the Europeans and the terror masters. The Europeans are told that we will support their nuclear negotiations with the Iranian regime for the time being, but they must join with us in strong action if the talks fail. The Syrians are invited to leave Lebanon, and Hezbollah is invited to abandon terrorism, and are warned of harsh consequences if they do not. The president quite clearly doesn't expect the negotiations to succeed, doesn't expect Syria to accept a free Lebanon, and doesn't for a minute think that Hezbollah can renounce its terrorist essence. In each case, we have convinced ourselves that, by taking a sweet and reasonable position today, we will be in a stronger position for tough action tomorrow. It will make it easier for at least some of the Europeans to join with us, whereas they would oppose tough action right away.
All that may well be true, but even so, it is the wrong thing to do. First of all, it enables the terrorists and their masters to buy time, and this is a moment of enormous risk for them. Every day they remain in power encourages them, and discourages the forces of freedom in their countries. When the people of Shiraz ask President Bush "why don't you act?" they are reflecting this reality. Carpe Diem, Mister President.
But above all, the clever stratagem adopted by the administration ignores Machiavelli's greatest lesson: Leadership is all about winning and losing, not about elegance and deep thinking. If we win the Europeans and lose the Middle East, we will have lost. But if we win the Middle East, the Europeans will hail us, as we see from their grudging tributes to Bush's successful liberation of Afghanistan and Iraq. "If you are victorious," Machiavelli says in his uncompromising way, "people will always judge the means you used to have been appropriate."
Syria and Iran are tottering, and if they fall, the terror network will break into relatively impotent shards that we will be able to destroy. Forget about diplomacy, this is war. Every day we hear about plans to attack the United States directly, and every day more Americans die in Iraq. Is it not too clever by half to resort to cunning diplomacy at such a time? Is it not immoral to leave American fighting men and women in harm's way an hour longer than is absolutely necessary?
The fires of freedom are burning all over Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. Don't stand back and admire the flames. Push the dictators in, and then cheer as free societies emerge.
Faster, confound it.

Fighting back

Stefania at http://freethoughts.splinder.com/ links to this story of a Pakistani woman fighing back. Check it out. Freedom for women in the middle east is critical.

3 new Syria blogs

check out these blogs on Syria.
good stuff
http://www.reformsyria.org/
http://syriaexposed.blogspot.com/
http://damascene.blogspot.com/

Free Syria Petition

Hi all,
check out the new petition for Syrian freedom.

Big Pahraoh comments on the Iraq post

Husayn, an Iraqi blogger, tell us about his feelings 2 years after the war in Iraq. His post is a masterpiece and I believe it should be published in newspapers worldwide. Reading about Husayn's feeling is special because he lost his cousin in the Hilla terrorist bombing.

Husayn Uthman from Democracy in Iraq.blogspot.com reflects on 2 years of war in Iraq

It has been now two years since the United States, UK and other countries invaded our nation. It has been two years since Iraqis have had to live with daily violent attacks and rampant terrorism. It has been two years since our nation began being turned upside down. It has been two years since the road to democracy began.It has been a very hard two years. So many people have died, so much has been destroyed, so many drops of tears and blood have been shed, so many have been robbed of loved ones, and so many words have been spoken about Iraq, it's future, and this war.Two years...seems like yesterday that I was awoken by bombs going off in Baghdad, and the realisation that my life and that of my country was going to change. That very day I remember being scared that my house might be destroyed by a bomb, or that my relatives who were forcibly put into the Iraqi army might be killed.Two years since Saddam came on TV, and pledged that Iraq would never fall. Little did he know, he surrendered like a rat in a whole only months later. Two years since my father had a heart. Two years is about 730 days. In those days what have I seen. My eyes have seen more than I had ever hoped, more blood, more death and more pain, then I ever imagined or hoped I would have seen.In those days I have seen the worst of humanity, the animal that lives in all humanity, the ability of humanity to destroy at will others, and rob the life given to others by God almight himself. So you ask me, Husayn, was it worth it. What have you gotten? What has Iraq acheived? These are questions I get a lot.To may outsiders, like those who protested last year, who will protest today. This was a fools errand, it brought nothing but death and destruction. I am sheltered in Iraq, but I know how the world feels, how people have come to either love or hate Bush, as though heis the emobdiement of this war. As though this war is part of Bush, they forget the over twenty million Iraqis, they forget the Middle Easterners, they forget the average person on the street, the average man with the average dream.Ask him if it was worth it. Ask him what is different. Ask him if he would go through it again, go ahead ask him, ask me, many of you have.Now I answer you, I answer you on behalf of myself, and my countrymen. I dont care what your news tells you, what your television and newspapers say, this is how we feel. Despite all that has happened. Despite all the hurt, the pain, blood, sweat and tears. These two years have given us hope we never had.Before March 20, 2003, we were in a dungeon. We did not see the light. Saddam Hussain was crushing Iraq's spirit slowly, we longed for his end, but knew we could not challenge him, or his diabolical seed who would no doubt follow him and continue his generation of hell on Earth.Since then, we now have hope. Hope is not a tangible thing, but it is something, it is more than being blinded by darkness, by being stuck in a mental pit without any future. Hope has been the greatest product of the last two years. No doubt, many have died, many have died by accident or due to crimes. But their sacrifices are not, and will not be for nothing. I refuse to let it be, and my countrymen stand with me. Our cities are smoking, our graveyards full, and terrorists in our midst. But we are not defeated. We are not down, we are not regretful. We are not going to surrender. For all that the two years have brought, the greatest thign they have given us is a future, and a view of the finish line.Iraqis see the finish line, the finish line of freedom and democracy and a functioning nation. We can smell it, taste it, and like a sprinter, one who has broken his legs, but who has a heart full of passion, we will crawl there no matter what the cost. No matter what we must endure, we have realized what we can become, and that is the biggest result of the last two years.Noone can take that from us. Not the terrorists, not those who want to question the good of the removal of Saddam, not those who want to reduce our glory for politics, none. We have been brought from darkness to light. And not only has the future been made better for Iraq, but the martyrs of our nation, their blood is watering the roots of democracy across the world. We are watching our neighbors come closer to the light, and this only pushes us more, and makes us stronger in our burning desire to reach the finish line, to realize the dream that our people have had for so long.No, we will not give up, and we will not say that the last two years were a waste. They for all their trouble have been momentus. They for us, have been a turning point in history. Whether or not you agree, this is how it looks from Iraq.

London Times article on Hariri investigation

'Something was going to happen – it was going to be me or him'

By Nicholas Blanford, Richard Beeston and James BoneAn

Investigation by The Times finds clear evidence that Syria assassinated Rafik Hariri, the Lebanese politician

DAYS before Rafik Hariri’s assassination last month, the Lebanese politician had played host to Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader, at his mansion in west Beirut. Mr Hariri had a warning for his old friend: the Syrians were after them.
“He told me that in the next two weeks it was either going to be me or him,” Mr Jumblatt told The Times. “Clearly he thought something was going to happen.”
Something did. On February 14 Mr Hariri was killed when 600lb of explosives apparently buried in the road outside St George’s Hotel in Beirut blew up beneath his car.
The blast has echoed round the world. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have demonstrated in Beirut, the world has united in demanding Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon and the drive for democracy in the Middle East has been given a huge boost.
Syria has repeatedly protested its innocence and no irrefutable evidence of its involvement has yet emerged. But a reconstruction of events leading to Mr Hariri’s murder, and interviews with at least a dozen Western, Lebanese and even Syrian officials, leave not the slightest doubt that the plot was hatched in Damascus.
The Times has learnt that Mr Hariri had enraged the Syrians by inspiring a UN resolution demanding that Syria stop interfering in Lebanon. US and UN officials repeatedly warned Syria not to harm Mr Hariri in the months before his death.
In mid-January, under pressure from Damascus, the Lebanese Government withdrew his 70-strong security detail, and immediately after his death the scene of the bombing was swept to remove any evidence of Syrian complicity.
“There does seem to be no other scenario,” a senior Western diplomat said.
The murder of Mr Hariri, an immensely wealthy Lebanese businessman who had rebuilt his country after a 15-year civil war, followed the collapse of his relations with President Assad of Syria last summer.
In August, under pressure from America to withdraw its forces from Lebanon, Syria had engineered changes to the Lebanese constitution to allow its ally, President Lahoud, to extend his term of office.
Mr Hariri, then Prime Minister, was a bitter rival of Mr Lahoud and strongly opposed the move. But Mr Assad summoned him to Damascus. In a 15-minute meeting the Syrian leader told him that the decision had been taken and that he was expected to vote for it in the Lebanese parliament.
Mr Hariri returned to Lebanon and drove straight to his summer residence in the mountains above Beirut. A former aide recalled that his mood was very bleak. “To them (the Syrians), we are all ants,” he quoted Mr Hariri as saying.
But Mr Hariri had his revenge. Using his close ties to President Bush and President Chirac of France, he secretly helped to bring Resolution 1559, calling for Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon, before the UN Security Council. “1559 was his baby. He was very proud of it,” a UN official said, though Mr Hariri’s aides played down his involvement.
On October 1 Marwan Hamade, a former minister and friend of Mr Jumblatt, was seriously wounded when his car was bombed in a Beirut street. His bodyguard was killed.
The bombing was interpreted as a warning to Mr Jumblatt. “Hariri was in Paris at the time and went crazy when he heard the news,” the aide said.
Two weeks later, Mr Hariri resigned as Prime Minister. He instantly became a magnet for growing opposition to Syria and was expected to use his political and financial muscle to lead the anti-Syrian camp in May’s parliamentary elections.
After the assassination attempt, Paris and Washington sent messages to Damascus warning the Syrians not to harm opposition leaders, specifically Mr Hariri and Mr Jumblatt. Richard Armitage, the US Deputy Secretary of State, reiterated that warning during a meeting with Mr Assad in Damascus on January 2.
But in late January Mr Hariri’s security detail, 70 members of the Lebanese Internal Security Forces, a paramilitary police unit, was withdrawn. He was repeatedly attacked in the media by pro-Syrian figures. Several workers from one of his charities were arrested.
Mr Hariri was confident that the Syrians would not dare to touch him because he was protected by Washington and Paris. “Hariri was not worried at the time,” his former aide said. “He used to say, ‘You only die when you die’.” But that sense of invulnerability was soon to change. On February 10, Terje Roed-Larsen, a UN envoy, met Mr Assad in Damascus and told the Syrian leader to rein in his intelligence apparatus in Lebanon. He tried to persuade Mr Assad to hold a secret meeting with Mr Hariri to reconcile their differences, fearing that there would be further violence if the situation was not quickly defused.
“Larsen knew if there was no dialogue, it would end badly,” a UN source said. “He knew he had to move fast.” That night he saw Mr Hariri in Beirut for dinner. The Lebanese politician was prepared to talk to the Syrians, but only as an equal and not as a subordinate.
Two days later Mr Hariri met Mr Jumblatt at his home, and correctly predicted his own death. The huge blast shortly after noon on St Valentine’s Day was heard all over Beirut — a thunderous explosion that reverberated around the streets and into the hills, rattling windows and bringing anxious Lebanese out on to their balconies. A column of smoke climbed into the sky from the city centre, marking the spot where Mr Hariri and 18 others perished.
Lebanese security forces swiftly sealed off the area. “They cleared up the crime scene after the explosion,” one senior British diplomat said. “They are hampering the investigation.” Initially they tried to pin the killings on Islamic militants and said that a suicide bomber was responsible.
Three Syrian ministers interviewed by The Times this month all denied that Damascus killed Mr Hariri. But none put forward a convincing alternative theory, even though Syria has a vast intelligence network in Lebanon.

Beginning of Independent.co.uk article on Hariri

UN finds evidence of official cover-up in Hariri assassination
By Robert Fisk in Beirut
14 March 2005
As the United Nations' Irish-led special investigation team here prepares to report that the Lebanese authorities have covered up evidence of the murder on 14 February of the former prime minister Rafik Hariri, his two sons have fled Lebanon after hearing that they too are in danger of assassination.

Beirut Spring analyzes the coming UN report on the Hariri car bomb, and the effects on Syria

Beirut Spring:

Saturday, March 19, 2005

Hey Tony, Tell them about that UN thingy:
Ok, You’re the world’s greatest superpower, and you have a problem:You want to influence a people into a rebellion, but you also want to keep a low profile because your ‘perceived’ meddling weakens your allies. You just learned that the UN Security Council is about to release a report that will have a dramatic impact on the ground; you know that such a report calls for laying the groundwork by ‘leaking’. This brings another problem: your media lack credibility in that region of the world.What do you do?The Americans seem to have found the solution: Send in your friend’s media.After ‘The Independent’, it’s London’s ‘Times’ newspaper‘s turn to talk about the Syrian hands in the Hariri Slaying, a few days before the widely anticipated Koffie Annan report.The Times mentions some comments Hariri made to Jumblat about “The Syrians Following Us”, and “one of us will be hit in the next two weeks”, it also adds the warnings terry Roejd Larsen gave to Hariri about his security, and talks about the complication of planting 600 pounds of explosives into the asphalt, and reaches to an incontestable conclusions: The Syrians did it. Meanwhile, the groundwork in Beirut is being laid too: Annahar’s Ali Hmedeh (who is now also the host of future tv’s main political talk show) warns the regime of resolution 1566 (In a nutshell, this is a recent chapter-7 security council resolution that has a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, and which classifies political assassinations as such. A chapter-7 resolution is the highest kind of severity the international community can afford, it involves military action in the case of non-compliance, like in the case of Iraq and the Libyan Lockerbie case). Also, all analysts are reading the surete general chief Jamil Sayyed’s latest move of presenting a case against himself as a sort of political hedging against what is to come…In short, if you thought you’ve seen a lot, wait till next week.
posted by Mustapha

car bomb reactions from the Lebanese Blogger Forum

Explosion in Beirut
Updates:Explosion occured at 12:35 am.6 injured.The car was a Datsun, License plate 230463.Members of the Syrian Baath Party branch were spotted loitering around the area earlier in the day.The government is already arresting people. This spells trouble. They are going to blame it on somebody from the opposition, that's what my gut tells me.I'll be getting a link to the pics in the next few minutes. A link to the pics is on my blog.
posted by Tempest @ 4:19 PM 1 comments

F$CK YOU LAHOUD!
n explosion was heard around 12:30am Lebanese time (1:30 am Kuwait time), in Jdeideh, Lebanon. Reports of an explosion has been confirmed by the media. It seems like the tv crews haven't reached it because there still is no footage of anything. Some reports claim an entire building collapsed as a result of the explosion. Some say it only is one car. I am still waiting for some more news on the topic.I hope things don't turn bad...Updates:2:09 LBC just reported that the car that exploded is a Datsun and several people have been wounded. My sources tell me that the explosion took place at the square in New Jdeideh. The square is next to a centrale, and amn il 3am. People are suprised that an explosion would take place at this time. Who would it target?2:20 am I just got confirmed reports that a building has collapsed as a result of the explosion. This is too absurb to me. Allah yestor!2:27 am LBC just shows the first footage of the explosion. It doesn't look like a building has collapsed but several seem to be injured.2:30 am More on LBC ... no dead people reported. The building is partially damaged. The car is appears to be a Honda. Wounded people might have been transferred to St. Joseph hospital.2:41 am More from LBC.... more footages show a huge amount of people there. The car flew from the explosion and landed near a car rental place. 230463 is the license plate number which is really easy to read. LBC just announced that a few minutes after the explosion, in Zalka, a few armed men kidnapped a man from his car which is a Xtrail or a Grand Cherokee. The names are unknown still. It is obvious the explosion was a strong one.. external walls of the first few floors have collapsed from the building. Fortunately, this explosion took play this late at night since the area is a commercial and residential area. People from the neighborhood look shocked and frightened.2:51 am The exploded car belongs to a person who lives in the building and is wounded as a result of the explosion. He claims that he parked his car at around 7pm and knows nothing of this.

Car bomb explosion in Beirut

Around an hour ago (10:35 GMT), an explosion rocked Beirut. A booby trapped car (make: Datsun, license plate: 230463 LB) exploded in a residential area. 6 reported injuries so far, no casualties, but some material damage.I'm disgusted. The freedom loving Lebanese have been expecting something like this from the Syrians and their puppets in Lebanon. They think they can turn Lebanon into some battleground, they've got something else coming. We are very good at getting our point through peacefully. But being cultured doesn't mean we're going down easy.I'm certain that a lot of people in the blogosphere (angryarab, queerarab, etc) will either ignore this news, or blame it on Israel or America. I'm sure these people don't care about what's happening to Lebanon. Syria promised to burn Lebanon before it leaves. It is trying hard to do that. They will fail.Further reports that I got through some personal contacts: Members of the Syrian Baath party in Lebanon (how sarcastic) were seen in the area today. They lingered in that spot for a long while. I guess I'll be blamed of spreading rumors for this bit.God knows how many people were left homeless after this explosion. I know that doesn't count in the big picture, but these poor people are homeless because some bastards are only capable of hate. Some bastards are terrorists, and only have a capacity for death and destruction. We Will NOT Be Subdued. WE WILL PREVAIL. Earliest photos can be seen here.

Even though the Saudi regime may not want treu freedom for their people, the door is opened...

A democratic door the Saudi regime won't easily closeBy Rasheed Abou-Alsamh Commentary by Saturday, March 19, 2005
The municipal elections currently under way in Saudi Arabia are the kingdom's first since 1963, when the last municipal races were held in the Western Province.
The electoral law was formulated in 1977 but never implemented due partly to the country's spectacular oil revenues, which generated unprecedented wealth and took the edge off demands for power sharing. There was an unspoken compact between the Saudi population and the rulers: leave the Al-Saud rule unchallenged and they would take care of all of the citizens' needs. This compact held until the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent stationing of thousands of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia.
An Islamic resurgence among Saudis, especially those who fought in Afghanistan against the Soviets in the 1980s, fueled anti-American sentiment and opposition to the royal family's decision to allow American troops into the country, considered holy ground by Muslims.
For a brief moment during and just after the 1991 Gulf war, Saudis found a measure of freedom to question and demand more participation in running the country's affairs. The royal family promised that reforms would come if the population accepted the presence of U.S. troops during the crisis. Yet the only reform steps that materialized were the 1992 establishment of the Shura Council (a consultative body appointed by the government to advise on legislation) and the enactment of the basic law, the kingdom's first written Constitution guaranteeing basic rights.
It was not until the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, in which 15 of the 19 hijackers turned out to be Saudis, that reformists found a new opportunity to push for change. The realization that an overemphasis on religious education had produced a generation of Saudis who were rabidly anti-American, anti-royal family, intolerant, and extremist - in addition to pressure from the U.S. administration and media - forced the ruling family to admit that change was necessary. Hundreds of Saudi reformists began circulating petitions calling for reform and sending them to the ruling family. In October 2003, the government announced that elections for half the seats on municipal councils (the other half being appointed) would finally be held across the country.
The forward movement toward municipal elections, however, has been accompanied by a number of backward steps as well. The March 2004 arrest of 10 prominent reformists (who had been calling for Shura Council elections, a constitutional monarchy and an independent judiciary) caused many to doubt the government's sincerity regarding reform. Seven of the reformists were released after signing undertakings not to discuss reform anymore, while the other three remain imprisoned during their trials.
In addition, so far Saudi women are barred from participation in the elections. When the text of the electoral law was released in mid 2004, its gender-neutral language encouraged five Saudi women to declare their intent to run. By the end of November 2004, however, Prince Mansour bin Miteb, the head of the Higher Local Election Committee at the Municipal Affairs Ministry, announced that women would not be allowed to vote or run as candidates. Although the law did not exclude them, the justification was alleged logistical problems in staffing voting centers for women and the lack of photo ID cards among women.
Women have since been promised the vote in the next municipal elections in 2009. Saudi women's-rights activists are hoping that the government will appoint some women to the municipal councils, although some were discouraged by Shura President Saleh bin Humaid's refusal to appoint women to the Shura Council during the upcoming expansion of that body.
Municipal elections were held in Riyadh on February 10 and in the Eastern and Southern provinces on March 3. The Western Province, which includes Mecca, Medina, Jeddah and the Northern region, will be the last to vote on April 21. In the capital, seven Islamist candidates won all available seats on the municipal council after forming an informal alliance, a result the government was keen to avoid but unable to stop. In Qatif, the traditional stronghold of the marginalized Shiite minority in the kingdom, Shiites won all of the seats up for grabs, as well as five of six seats in the mixed Sunni-Shiite area of Al-Hasa. The two rounds of municipal elections so far featured vigorous campaigning and a healthy turnout of registered voters at the polls, although voter registration was low in some areas.
Many Saudis remain deeply cynical about the powers of the partially elected councils, but this baby step toward democracy has nonetheless given hope to some that they will see elections for the Shura Council, which is currently being expanded from 120 to 150 members, during their lifetimes. They also believe that the municipal elections have opened the door to further reforms, and say it is a door the government will not be able to close again easily.
Rasheed Abou-Alsamh is a senior editor at the Arab News newspaper in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. He writes on Saudi affairs regularly for The Washington Times and Al-Ahram Weekly. This commentary is reprinted with permission from the Arab Reform Bulletin Vol. 3, issue 2 (March 2005) www.CarnegieEndowment.org/ArabReform (c) 2005, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

US Congress calls for Syria to free Lebanese Prisoners

U.S. House calls for release of Lebanese held by Syria

By James Fitz-Morris Special to The Daily StarSaturday, March 19, 2005

BEIRUT: The United States House of Representatives has passed a strongly worded resolution condemning the "continuing gross violations of human rights and civil liberties of the Syrian and Lebanese people by the government of Syria."
House Resolution 32, among other points, calls on U.S. President George W. Bush to seek "a United Nations Security Council Resolution classifying Lebanon as a captive country and calling for the immediate release of all Lebanese detainees in Syria and Lebanon."
It also seeks sanctions against those the U.S. blames for propping up what it calls Syria's "proxy government and president."
Resolution 32 states: "The President should freeze all assets in the United States belonging to Lebanese government officials who are found to support and aid the occupation of Lebanon by the Syrian Arab Republic."
Although the resolution does not use the term, it is clear it ultimately seeks a regime change in both Beirut and Damascus.
It states: "The occupation of Lebanon represents a long-term threat to the security of the Middle East and U.S. efforts to liberalize the economy and policy in the region."
Congress is encouraging the U.S. President to "reach out to dissidents, human rights activists and the non-violent democratic opposition in Syria."
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Republican from Florida, introduced the resolution and it was passed on Thursday with nearly unanimous support in the House.
Those working to free Lebanese prisoners held in Syrian prisons are applauding the Congress.
Ghazi Aad, the general director of Support for Lebanese Detainees and Exiles (SOLIDE) said: "Somebody, finally, on the international scene is acknowledging the presence of these prisoners."
SOLIDE has been lobbying the U.S., among other nations and organizations, for years to help with this cause.
Aad says: "We went to the U.S. in 2001 and in 2003 to lob
by (for help in getting the release
of Lebanese prisoners in Syria), plus there are Lebanese-American groups over there lobbying. After so many years, finally someone is doing something."
In its Resolution 32, the U.S. House states: "it is widely reported that Syria has utilized the practices of kidnapping and arresting Lebanese citizens, using torture against them, and causing their virtual disappearance."
SOLIDE says it has more than 30 files on Lebanese prisoners thought to be in Syria and there could be hundreds more.
So far, the White House has not said if President Bush will act on Congress' request.
Ros-Lehtinen is also the co-author of the "Lebanon and Syria Liberation Act," which is now being debated in Washington.
If passed, it would strengthen sanctions the U.S. has brought against Syria.
Ros-Lehtinen said when she introduced the bill: "Through the introduction of the Lebanon and Syria Liberation Act (LASLA) we seek to intensify the pressure on the Syrian regime."

Bahrain Tribune: People are working towards their own freedom, sometimes against their own governments

Arab leaders gather as wind of democracy blows over region

ALGIERS: Arab leaders were pre­paring for their summit next week in Algeria with a wind of democracy bringing hesistant change to some of their countries, spurred by internal and external pressure.
A year after pledging to push ahead with reform, at their own pace, Arab leaders in several countries went ahead with changes.
Landmark municipal elections have been held in stages in Saudi Arabia since February. But women were barred from voting and half of the members of the municipal councils are appointed by the authorities.
Late last month Egyptian Presi­dent Hosni Mubarak asked lawmakers to amend Egypt’s constitution to allow for multi-candidate and direct presidential elections – for the first time.
External pressure has come particularly from US President George W. Bush who devoted part of his State of the Union speech last month specifically to reform in the Middle East.
The US would "encourage a higher standard of freedom", he said, adding that hopeful reform was already taking hold in the Arab world.
Analysts point too to the elections which were held in January in the Palestinian territories and in Iraq, even if voting took place under foreign occupation.
Meanwhile, Kuwait has launched debates on empowering women in its male-dominated political life.
In Beirut, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese took to the streets after the assassination last month of former prime minister Rafik Hariri demanding an end to Syria’s domination of the country.
"The Arab people are thirsty for freedom. That is why we are seeing this thrust for democratic reforms. It has nothing do with resolutions adopted by Arab summits," said former Lebanese prime minister Selim Hoss, adding: "The reasons for these changes are internal.
"Thanks to satellite television channels and the Internet, the people are monitoring what is happening in the world and are beginning to be conscious of their natural rights and of freedom," he said.
Former Arab League ambassador to the United Nations Clovis Maksoud believes that "civil societies", rather than decisions by Arab leaders, triggered the bid for change in the region.
"Civil society braved their initial reluctance to face the status quo in Arab countries, prompting Arab regimes to act in order to contain further despair," said Maksoud.
The situation was encouraged by a "favourable international climate", he said, adding that the West, through its powerful media, put pressure on Arab governments to force them to respond to calls for reform.
nn TRIPOLI: Libyan leader Moam­mar Gaddafi is considering a boycott of next week’s Arab summit in Algiers and the hosts are leading efforts to persuade him to change his mind, Arab diplomats said yesterday.
"President Abdelaziz Boutef­lika is hoping to use his close relations with Gaddafi to convince him not to stay away," one diplomat said. The maverick Libyan leader has made headlines at the past two Arab summits.
Last year in Tunis, he stormed out of the opening session, saying: "Libya feels obliged to boycott the Arab summit as it does not agree with the agenda."
– Agencie

MEMRI highlights Egyptian govt. media attacks on President Bush and the Freedom agenda

Growing Egyptian-U.S. Tensions: Egyptian Press Attacks President Bush

Reports in the Arab press have recently discussed tension between Egypt and the U.S. The Arabic-language London daily Al-Hayat reported that Egyptian diplomatic sources said that Egypt had expressed concerns about the "frivolous discussion in the [American] media" of Egypt's domestic affairs, which, according to them, is not appropriate in relations between two allied nations.
The sources claimed Egypt used diplomatic channels to express its dissatisfaction with the "negative atmosphere" created by leaks to the American media from various circles within the U.S. administration. The latest of which quoted American intelligence sources suggesting Egypt had been a partner in the development of Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons programs.
The sources also claim that Egypt postponed the G8-Arab League Summit, scheduled to take place on March 3, 2005, as a response to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's statements about the arrest of Egyptian parliament member Ayman Nour. The postponement of Rice's visit to Egypt was mentioned as another source of tension between the two countries. [1]
In addition, another Arabic-language London daily, Al-Quds Al-Arabi, wrote that Egyptian Presidential Spokesman Suleiman 'Awwad stated President Hosni Mubarak would not hold his annual visit to the U.S. this year. [2] The following are excerpts from the press reports in addition to cartoons devoted to the same subject:
Anti-American Cartoons
In light of Egyptian-U.S. tensions, Egyptian government newspapers published a number of anti-American cartoons in recent days. The daily Al-Akhbar published a cartoon on March 14, 2005, in which Bush looks in a mirror and sees the image of Adolph Hitler. [3]

On March 15, 2005, Al-Akhbar published a cartoon showing a tidal wave patterned like the American flag. The caption read: "This is a black day: the American tsunami:" [4]

On March 16, 2005, Al-Akhbar published a cartoon showing President Bush as a gun-toting cowboy standing on top of a pile of bodies, with the caption: "Allah knows that I want to liberate human beings in this world from their errors, to reform the recesses of their souls and the stupidity of their minds and to give them eternal rest from their unruly thoughts..." [5]

The weekly Akhbar Al-Yawm published a cartoon on March 12, 2005, in which President Bush is portrayed as an angel, but with cloven hooves and a pointy tail: [6]

Egyptian Displeasure with Condoleezza Rice's Statements about Ayman Nour's Arrest
One of the main causes of the Egyptian-U.S. tension was the statements by Condoleezza Rice about the arrest of Egyptian MP Ayman Nour. The MP, arrested on January 30, 2005, and released on bail on March 12, 2005, is suspected of forging signatures in order to establish his political party Al-Ghad ["Tomorrow"], but some believe his arrest to be politically motivated, following his calls for reform in Egypt.
At a press conference held during Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al-Ghait's mid-February visit to Washington, Secretary Rice expressed concern about Nour's arrest and called for a rapid solution to the problem.
Egyptian diplomatic sources told Al-Hayat that during his visit Abu Al-Ghait felt an "uncomfortable atmosphere", especially because of Rice's public criticism of the arrest.
The sources also reported that Egypt was astonished by Congressman Adam Schiff's proposal for a congressional resolution to condemn Egypt for the arrest and to call upon it to release Ayman Nour. [7]
Also there was sharp criticism in the Egyptian government press about Rice's statements, which were perceived as blatant interference in Egypt's internal affairs, casting a cloud over relations between the two countries.
Government Daily: U.S. Actions Worse than Hitler's Nazis
Columnist 'Adli Barsoum wrote in the government daily Al-Gumhuriyya: "Egypt staunchly rejected American attempts to interfere in the MP Ayman Nour affair. America does not have any right to impose upon us its false role of defense of human rights, democracy, and free speech, when it has [both] an early and recent history of human rights violations in forms unknown to [even] Hitler's Nazis.
"The Ayman Nour affair is an internal Egyptian matter, whether a criminal affair, a political affair, or anything else. The Egyptian judiciary are the only ones who may express an opinion on this matter, and the Egyptian people are the only ones who may express criticism about it." [8]
In a similar vein, government daily Al-Akhbar Editor Galal Dweidar wrote: "American Foreign Minister Condoleezza Rice's statements concerning the judicial investigations into the charges against the head of the Al-Ghad party, Ayman Nour, are unacceptable by any standard, since this is an internal affair and [outside interference] damages the transparency and independence of the Egyptian judicial system." According to Dweidar, Rice's statements "completely contradict the good relations woven between Egypt and the U.S."
Dweidar added: "Condoleezza needs to understand that her crude intervention in Egyptian judicial matters has the opposite effect on the Ayman Nour affair [than intended]... If [in the past] Washington found pretexts for expressing its opinion on the accusations against Sa'd Al-Din Ibrahim – since he has American citizenship, despite being originally from Egypt – [in this case] there is no justification for this interference... Interference in anything pertaining to Ayman Nour, who is accused of criminal forgery, is unacceptable." [9]
Egyptian Weekly to Bush: Egypt's Media Is Not the Government's Mouthpiece
Akhbar Al-Yawm Editor Ibrahim Sa'dah published an article titled "A Direct Appeal to President George Bush," dealing with the Egyptian-U.S. tension: "We have many reservations about the new [developments] in bilateral relations between the U.S. and us.
"For a number of reasons known to us and a few unknown to us, the U.S. media – especially the most popular and influential newspapers – have been publishing many lies and fabrications about Egypt, its positions, policy and reforms.
"It is astounding that many Congress members 'fish' for such fabrications in order to... present them to Congress and issue communiqués, recommendations, or decisions that at the very least are detrimental to the strong ties that existed and still exist between the two friendly countries.
"It is no secret that a well-known body in Washington translates what the Egyptian media publishes. It chooses fragmented and unintelligible lines from here and there so that they will constitute proof that the Egyptian media is out to harm the U.S. It publishes only what is harmful to Egypt, its administration and president. This body – which hopes to cause tension between the two countries – is distributing the [material] it chose to translate from the Egyptian media, in which it found things damaging to the U.S., to all Congress members and senior U.S. administration officials. This is [done] in order to present a distorted picture of what is being said and written in the Egyptian media.
"The most dangerous thing is that most top American officials believe that the Egyptian media is not free and that the Egyptian government compels columnists to write the things they write and publish...
"The problem with those around you, Honorable President, is that they think that the Egyptian press is subject to government supervision and does not publish any word that is not according to [the government's] directions, instructions and positions. It is as if the American press is the only press that enjoys freedom of expression, while the Egyptian press does not. [These people believe that] when there is legitimate and objective criticism of U.S. policy [in the Egyptian media], it has necessarily been imposed by government orders from above..." [10]
[1] Al-Hayat (London), March 15, 2005.
[2] Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), March 15, 2005. The article cites a report from United Press International.
[3] http://www.elakhbar.org.eg/issues/16502/1300.html.
[4] http://www.elakhbar.org.eg/issues/16503/1300.html.
[5] Al-Akhbar (Egypt), March 16, 2005.
[6] http://www.ahbarelyom.org.eg/akhbarelyom/issues/3149/0110.html.
[7] Al-Hayat (London), March 15, 2005.
[8] Al-Gumhuriyya (Egypt), February 22, 2005.
[9] Al-Akhbar (Egypt), February 20, 2005.
[10] Akhbar Al-Yawm (Egypt), March 12, 2005.

My blog name

I seem to be having a slight issue with my blog's name...I of course am very interested in freedom for Lebanon, but much like the lbog daytonvkennedy, once you name a blog, you're pretty much stuck...which is why I kep my address americansforefreedom.........but by hacing my header name different has confused some folks, so I've updated it. Please dont think that im moving my focus from Lebanon, cause right now, it's very important...i'm just doing some slight web positioning.

egypt Freedom Update - Ayman Nour to run against Mubarak

Historic candidate hopes to usher in change
By Betsy HielTRIBUNE-REVIEWThursday, March 17, 2005
CAIRO — To the cheers of hundreds of supporters, Egyptian opposition leader Ayman Nour declared his candidacy for president this fall, the first multi-candidate election for the office in Egypt’s history.
“We are here to spread freedom,” declared Nour, whose arrest by Egyptian officials prompted U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to cancel a trip here last month.
Four days after his release from prison on bail, Nour addressed a rally at the downtown headquarters of his Al Ghad (Tomorrow) party. Strands of blinking colored lights stretched over the building’s courtyard, and posters in Arabic proclaimed “Al Ghad … is Coming.”
Supporters lit fireworks, danced and threw candy to the crowd, while a heavy security contingent carrying truncheons surrounded the building. Egyptian police and Nour’s supporters scuffled before his arrival.

Afterward, many riot police watched the rally on nine television screens Al Ghad workers set up facing the street, so an overflow crowd outside the courtyard could watch.
The government of President Hosni Mubarak has charged the populist Nour with forging thousands of signatures to register his party. Nour denies that and accuses the government of trying to eliminate him as a political rival.
Seven Al Ghad members sit in Egypt’s 454-seat parliament. They attended the rally, along with prominent Egyptian artists and intellectuals.
Nour’s announcement follows Mubarak’s decision early this month to change Egypt’s constitution to allow multiparty presidential elections. Egyptians now vote every six years on a single candidate, nominated by the government-dominated parliament.
Nour promised supporters that Mubarak’s “party will fall,” but said political change must come without violence. “Change — it is not my dream, it is the Egyptian people’s dream,” he declared.
Mubarak has not announced his candidacy but is widely expected to run again — although some political analysts here think he is grooming his son, Gamal, to run. Most experts believe Mubarak would easily win a fifth term regardless of opposition. Nour, however, is widely seen as the most viable challenger. Shahinda Masri, 23, said she attended Wednesday’s rally because Nour “is from the people. He wants reform, and to make things like education and living conditions better.
“I will not only vote for him, I will work on his campaign,” she said.
Dr. Adel Sayed, a Cairo University chemistry professor attending the rally, said Nour “represents change, change for freedom.”
“The winds of freedom are going around the world, and the leader here (Mubarak) wants to isolate us — and that is why they enclose us like animals,” Sayed said, pointing to riot police surrounding the rally.
As speakers shouted for freedom and democracy over the rally’s loudspeakers, riot police held back pedestrians who stopped to watch. Other Egyptians watched from apartment windows overlooking the street and courtyard.
Betsy Hiel is a Middle East correspondent for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. She can be reached at hielb@yahoo.com.

United Arab Emirates Freedom Update

POLITICS:'Kifaya' Mantra Resounds in UAE Too Meena S Janardhan DUBAI, Mar 17 (IPS) -

A new word is resounding in the Arab world - 'kifaya', Arabic for 'enough'. Many Arabs are fed-up and want their freedom and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's startling announcement that his country is ready to hold its first-ever secret, multiparty presidential elections later this year indicate that the winds of change are blowing through the Middle East. And the 'kiyafa' fever, too, seems to be catching on in the United Arab Emirates as well. The stern call for change made last December by Gen. Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai crown prince and UAE minister of defence, seems to have set the tone. At the Arab Strategy Forum, he said ''I say to my fellow Arabs in charge: If you do not change, you will be changed!'' ''If you do not initiate radical changes, responsibly discharge your duties and uphold the principles of truth, justice and responsibility, your people will resent you. More than this, the verdict of history on you will be severe,'' he added. The resonance of this call and of 'kifaya' is reflected in the recent statements made by leading academics and professionals in the country. ''It has become the ambition of every citizen to have a say in the working of government, either as an elected official or as a voter,'' said Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, a professor at UAE University. ''This is a powerful empowering tool. It ensures a free and healthy participation in politics,'' added Abdullah. As of now, no political parties are allowed in the six Gulf Cooperation Council States, but Oman and Qatar have taken initial steps towards democratisation albeit slowly and Bahrain and Kuwait now hold parliamentary elections. In a rare nationwide vote, Saudi Arabia has also been holding municipal polls as part of a cautious reform, allowing only male citizens to vote. ''At a time when more than 10 million Arabs in Palestine, Iraq and Saudi Arabia exercised their right to vote and participated in elections, it is completely unacceptable that the UAE still has an appointed legislature,'' said Abdullah. The Federal National Council (FNC) theoretically is the legislative body of the country and just celebrated its 33rd anniversary. According to the constitution, federal draft laws have to pass through the FNC for review and recommendations, which, ironically, are not binding on the government. Furthermore, the FNC has no power to suggest any law and may not discuss any issue without permission from the cabinet. Saeed Hareb, professor at UAE University, said in a statement, ''It is strange that Iraqis registered and voted in the UAE for their country's election. Yet UAE citizens do not have the right to vote.'' ''With elections being held in Egypt, the UAE will be the only country in the region that does not have elections,'' he added. Hareb said the time was right to have a fully elected FNC. ''We've had enough of an appointed council without legislative powers. It lags behind in development and fails to express the people's concerns.'' According to UAE University's Abdullah, it has ''become embarrassing for the UAE to lag behind others politically in the region''. ''This does not fit the country and its stature,'' he added. ''The FNC should have full legislative powers. It can never remain a consultative House without controlling powers.'' Stressed Abdullah: ''Women must also be represented in the council and its members must be increased to be proportionate to the population.'' The FNC is, however, a forum where members have freedom of speech and the right to question ministers under the rules of the council. Cabinet members are often grilled and criticised by members during debates. Reiterating the need for elections, Khalifa Bakhit Al Falasi, a leading intellectual and a diplomat, wrote in the Arabic daily 'Al Bayan' that the UAE people must be rewarded for their efforts, patience and loyalty by being given the right to elect FNC members in line with the UAE's constitution. But Abdullah pointed out that reforms cannot be initiated from within the FNC. ''It is not powerful enough as a lower house to reform itself,'' he stressed. ''All FNC members are looking forward to a government initiative for political reform that matches the economic and social advancement. But the government will not move unless the grassroots demand reform,'' the university professor pointed out. In a landmark statement Sheikh Sultan Bin Mohammad Al Qasimi, the ruler of Sharjah - one of the seven emirates making up the country - announced the formation of municipal elections. He said this move was a prelude to civic elections in the emirate. Speaking at the swearing-in of the 88 members - which included two women - chosen for the nine councils, the chairman of the Sharjah Municipal Council, Mohammed Salim Al Owais, said, ''This is a clear manifestation of the 'Shura' (parliamentary) principles.'' The move has been described as a step towards democracy and a definite sign that change is on its way. ''I hope that this will enhance ties between the authorities and the people. This is a harbinger to similar developments at the local, national and regional levels,'' said Ahmed Al Gobaisi, a Sharjah national. ''This announcement will pave the way for reforms and is a call for nationals to share the responsibility of governing our country. We must rise to this challenge and prove that we are worthy of this trust,'' he added. (END/2005)

Yemen Observer story

really wanted to link to a yemon Observer.com story called "Change at the speed of Rice" but I can't....so I'll try to do so tomorrow. sorry.

My mission statement

I'm starting to get a bunch of traffice here, so I thought I'd restate my purpose in writing this blog.
I live in New York City, which is why I am writing this blog. I've been following blogs for years really. I think I was introduced to them by an article I think that included Andrewsullivan.com, and I think he introduced me to many other sites, instapundit, etc. For a long time, I've wanted to start writing, but I've felt that it wasn't for me, but that ended early this year, when I realized that there was a gap, between American blogs and the related neocon'ish european blogs, and the blogs located in the middle east, who are now the frontline for getting good info on freedom efforts in Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the rest. These efforts are critical, and I'll get to that in the next paragraph. So i thought that it would be good to start highlighting middle eastern blogs here...then the Hariri attack heppened, and all the lebaneese blogs got traffic through INstapundit, etc, and my efforts were slightly less important, because the link was established. Anyway, I;m still here cause the dam is broken i guess. I kind of like blogging now. Its a bit liberating. Anyway, I left the comment below on a new Iraqi freedom blog that Glenn Reynolds highlighted. Feel free to browse !

Many Americans now realize that our security depends on your freedom, and that freedom spreads throughout the middle east - so that your leaders are held responsible for their policies by you and your people. Without this, they are free to spread your disappointment, rage, fear, etc through terrorism. With freedom and jobs come peace. After an unprovoked murderous attack, Americans throught the leadership of President Bush sacrificed more blood,so that you can live free. Know that we are standing with you and everyone standing for freedom in the middle east.

Wictory Wednesday

This is more of a domestic politics post than usual for this site, but Polipundit.com is once again encouraging their readers to participate in "Wictory Wednesday" by contributing early and often to Mark Kennedy's campaign. The Minnesota race will be critical to increasing Republican margins in the Senate in '06.

Gateway Pundit links to Bahrain freedom news

Bahrain Joins Democracy Push
The tiny country of Bahrain, home of the US Navy's 5th Fleet, can't help but notice all of the commotion in the area. Not to be left out,... Bahrain passes democracy legislation on Monday:The Cabinet yesterday appr­oved the Chamber of Deputies’ decision to introduce human rights and democracy as subjects at the intermediate and secondary levels and asked the Ministry of Education to consider both subjects in its curricula development plans.And, more good news- The Bahrain Government also released the three detained bloggers today...Bahrain has freed three men detained for running a website critical of the government, though they still face charges over stirring hostility towards the government. "They freed all of us and now I am at home with my family," Ali Abd al-Imam, who ran www.bahrainonline.org, said. This is great news, and a positive sign, yet, Bahrain has a ways to go...The government has banned the website, which frequently changes its address to circumvent blocking by Internet provider Bahrain Telecommunications Co. Bahrain, the Gulf's banking hub and home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, has introduced some reforms, but the opposition, led by the country's majority Shia Muslims, wants more rights in the small Sunni-ruled kingdom.Update: (8:00 AM) The "Great One" Instapundit is linking to this news from Bahrain.

Good progress with protests in Egypt too, as Across the Bay points out

"One of the most interesting things to observe in the aftermath of Hizbullah's rally, and the opposition's counter-rally today, was not the numbers per se, but how those numbers were interpreted by commentators, especially by western Third Worldists."

he quotes a 3rd blog,

In a post on H&R, Charles Freund made an interesting point:
[T]he groups that have been demonstrating in Cairo and Kuwait are far, far smaller -- hardly "crowds" at all -- but they yield greater potential political meaning: That such popular-empowerment groups have assembled at all represents a challenge to long-standing, top-down political norms. Indeed, the significance of the Egyptian Kifaya protests is not that they involved tens of thousands of marchers, but that they were an unanticipated phenomenon that quickly went from negligible to noticeable. No one doubts that Egypt's Mubarak could conjure up a counter-crowd of a million people to chant his name, but that wouldn't change the significance of the smaller protest gatherings.Just such a conjured counter-crowd is what marched Tuesday in Beirut. The Hizbollah crowd that gathered to protest U.S. and French pressure for a full Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon (and also against UN Resolution 1559, which would disarm Hizbollah) has impressed some Bush critics by its size. The size of the crowd matters -- it reflects the strength of the crowd's organizers -- but so does the nature of the crowd. Indeed, the point of such conjured crowds is that they are about their organizers far more than they are about their participants....Different crowds, different meanings.This is an important reminder to people smitten by numbers. It's not that numbers don't matter, it's that the meanings people assign to them often do nothing but expose their underlying ideological premises.

The Proud Lebanese

I am not Lebanese, but I can definitely say that I am about as proud of a foreign country as one can be. Standing up with your countrymen for your freedom is pretty much the most important thing you can do as a person. And lots of Lebanese are doing it now. As my previous post indicated, people of the middle east are starting to realize that America is on the side of freedom and liberty in the world....or at least not on the side of homicidal, kleptomanic, despotic, nepotistic dictatorships.
Additionally, Iraqis have now for the past year realized that terrorism is bad, as the Israelies always have known. Slowly, America is moving the region to a new perspective. And none of this would have happened without President Bush. Martyrs square, meet Bush square.

Millions of ordinary Arabs openly embrace Bush’s unvarnished threats against Syria - Gulf News.com

Democratic thoughts run through the Arab land
By Youssef M. Ibrahim, Special to Gulf News.com
Published: 15/3/2005, 00:00 (UAE)

Poke around conversations in the cafés up and down Dubai’s creek, the gold souks of downtown Jeddah, or in the privacy of a million homes across the vast Arab landscape and you might hear good things being said about the US President George W. Bush.
Intellectuals, businessmen and working class people alike can be caught these days lauding Bush’s hard-edged posture on democracy in Arab lands, cheering his irreverent handling of Middle Eastern rulers who are US allies as he puts pressure on them to hold free elections, release political prisoners and open trade.
And, it is very much an open secret that millions of ordinary Arabs openly embrace Bush’s unvarnished threats against Syria should it fail to pull its soldiers and spies out of Lebanon before the elections there next month.
It may not add up to a love fest for Bush in Arabia as much as it is a celebration by exponentially growing numbers of Arabs of their own liberation.
From Casablanca to Kuwait City, what Bush says mirrors, reinforces and, in fact, reflects what has long been in the heart: A yearning for human rights, justice, freedom, rule of law, transparency, limits on power and women’s rights. In short civilisation as we know it today in the 21st century.
The call for these most basic of rights has been murmured for a long time, but a confluence of events starting with the Arab satellite revolution of the past decade to the most recent assassination of Rafik Hariri on February 14 has transformed it into something resolute.
Its intensity differs vastly from country to country, but a common feature underpinning everything is the lifting of that fear which for decades has constricted the Arab mind.
People, men and women, are less worried about getting hurt or arrested than about conveying what is on their minds.
Regardless of Bush’s intentions - which many Arabs and Muslims still view with suspicion - the US president and his neoconservative crowd are helping to spawn a spirit of reform and a new vigour to confront dynastic dictatorships and other assorted ills in the Greater Middle East.
It is enough for someone like me and most of my liberal friends, who have long felt that Bush’s attitude toward the Middle East was all wrong, to wonder whether his idea of setting the Arab and Muslim house in order first may not in fact be the right approach to wider justice in the region.
Of course it is still early for congratulations.
Bush may feel inspired by the example of Ronald Reagan who told Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to "tear down this wall" in Berlin in 1989, but the Middle East may more closely resemble Beijing where a totalitarian Chinese Communist government crushed the liberation movement that same year.
One cannot but wonder what will the US policy in the Middle East look like if the autocrats and religious fundamentalists make a stand against the voices of freedom heard all over the place.
Demonstrations
The answer will have to be found in the Arab streets, in free elections in Palestine, Iraq, and hopefully elsewhere, in the demonstrations of Beirut and Cairo and many more and in the courageous stand taken by Kuwaiti women last week when they demanded in public demonstrations too the right to vote.
"The answer is within us, not anywhere else,’’ said a nameless young man, one of the thousands who waved Lebanese flags in Beirut’s Martyrs Square the other day to a television interviewer.
In other words, the groundswell itself is the only guarantee of its survival, with more Arabs than ever baring their souls, showing no fear.
By now all the world knows the slogan for this nascent peoples’ Arab revolt is kifaya (enough) a word which will enter dictionaries, just as the Palestinian intifida did.
It is both emphatic and vague enough to be all encompassing yet effective: enough of autocrats, enough corruption, enough occupation and enough repression. It has acquired magical and perhaps lasting power.
The Americans saw it and came to give a push for their own motives and reasons. That is nice, but whether they stay or not should not be a determining factor. What does matter is the staying power of the movement itself.
An analyst of the Arab condition, Abdulmoneim Saeed, argued last week in the Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq al Awsat that the "enough" movement can already claim an important achievement - sweeping aside the tired arguments that Arabs and Muslim societies have "special circumstances, special traditions and special cases" which preclude those societies from sharing universal democratic principles.
Indeed, a notable voice, Egypt’s guru of Arab nationalism, author and writer Mohammad Hassanein Haykal, has pronounced 2005 "the year of the big scare".
In his second inaugural address this past February, Bush proclaimed America’s commitment to spreading democracy by saying: "All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: The United States will not ignore your oppression, or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you."
Maybe so and there are numerous indications he meant what he said. But this isn’t the first time that Bush has encouraged Arabs to rise up against their oppressors.
In 1991, Bush’s father, President George H.W. Bush egged on Iraqi Shiites and Kurds to revolt, only to abandon them when Saddam Hussain cracked down.
Arabs must not wait for Bush but lead the way and not shrink away when the counter attack begins, remembering well that not a single autocrat will ever be a willing participant in democratic reform.
So one is left to wonder if this moment will last more than a moment, whether it will turn into a repeat of the tearing down of the Berlin Wall or whether it will be a reprise of the truncated Beijing Spring.
For now, all the Middle East has are demonstrators and brave voters who, ballot by imperfect ballot, e-mail by e-mail are burying a culture of fear. And for the moment, that may be enough.
Youssef M. Ibrahim, a former Middle East correspondent for the New York Times and Energy Editor of the Wall Street Journal, is Managing Director of the Dubai-based Strategic Energy Investment Group. He can be contacted at ymibrahim@gulfnews.com

Bad news - Carter to Monitor the Lebanese Election

Potentially bad news from Lebanon.....Jimmy Carter has agreed to oversee the elections ...for newly installed President Karami. Bad news, as we all know Carter ok'd the fraudulent elections in Venezuela recently.

via Lebanese Blogger Forum
(Naharnet-AP)
Karami Accepts U.S. ex-President Jimmy Carter to Monitor Lebanon's Elections Premier-Designate Omar Karami has reversed Lebanon's official rejection of international observers to monitor the parliamentary elections in spring, welcoming a team headed by U.S. ex-President Jimmy Carter to do the job.
Karami revealed the change of heart in an interview carried by the London-based Asharq Al Awsat newspaper and reproduced by The Associated Press. He warned, however, that the elections may have to be postponed if no new government could be formed within an adequate timeframe.
This was the first time that that the Beirut government publicly dropped its contention that allowing foreign observers to monitor the April-May elections was a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty although various opposition factions and the Maronite Church have been insisting on international observation.
Karami, a staunch ally of Syria, was re-designated to form the new government on Thursday, just 10 days after submitting the resignation of his previous cabinet in the wake of the quake-like aftermath of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's resignation a month ago.
The de facto invitation to Carter looked like a Karami goodwill gesture to the anti-Syria opposition front that has rejected his reappointment as a 'second assassination of Hariri' designed to keep Lebanon under Syria's tutelage even after the withdrawal of its army and its dreaded secret service apparatus.
Carter heads a private human rights organization called the Carter Center, which monitors elections worldwide, including the Palestinian elections that were held in January.
Karami said he was not hopeful about the prospects for forming a national unity government but would do his best to talk to the opposition.
"I will keep trying to start a dialogue with the opposition, without preconditions," Karami said, admitting that he is holding a ball of fire in his hands.
He warned that an opposition boycott of his government could create a prolonged power vacuum that would backfire on the nation's hard-pressed finances because he would not be able in a caretaking capacity to make necessary decisions.
"I am now heading a caretaker government ... and I might stay that way for a long time," Karami said.(Naharnet-AP)

Jane Novak and the power of Americans pushing for Freedom

Jane Novak is doing an incredible job leading the push for, among other things, freedom for Abdulkarim Al-Khaiwani, the editor-in-chief of Al-Shura Weekly. He was jailed as punishment for a series of articles on governmental performance. In a quick, secretive trail, without full legal council, during the judicial vacation, Al-Khaiwani was convicted and sentenced to a year of hard labor.
Jane had made it her quest to have him freed, and has corresponded via published article and email with him, in addition to starting a petition, signed now by over 550 people and has been kined to by dozens of blogs, highlighting his case. Please take a look at her site, Armies of Liberation, and sign the petition here:
http://www.petitiononline.com/khaiwani/petition.html

Good luck to Jane, and long live the blogosphere. A free press for all.
jp

Thanks to a new link from the Italian Neocon - Stefania

Great site, great pictures and tons of links on and around freedom for the middle east.
Check it out if you have a chance.

I defer to Big Pharaoh for analysis

I think this is another big step for Egyptian Freedom. Mubarak realized that relations with President Bush would have suffered greatly with Nour still in prison. Once again, change in the Middle East due to US pressure.

Big Pahraoh:

I was sure Ayman Noor would be released just like his predecessor human rights activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim. I was also speculating that Noor's release will come before President Mubarak's annual trip to Washington. It turned out I was correct.I credit Ayman Noor's release (if he won't be arrested again) for two main factors. First, the Egyptian elite who are not connected to the government were clearly sympathetic towards Noor. They just didn't understand why the government would arrest Noor in particular. They know why Islamists get arrested, but they just cannot comprehend the jailing of someone like Noor. It is worth mentioning that independent newspapers who are not tied to the government or have something against Noor were sympathetic towards him as well.The second factor is the US factor. Imagine if President Mubarak made his annual trip to Washington while Noor was still in jail. It would have been a huge embarrassment to President Bush. In addition, Mubarak would have probably faced an angry US media that reserved considerable space to Noor when he was arrested.I want to direct a few words to my president: You are greater than this Mr. President. As an Egyptian who respects you and believes that you are still the safety valve of Egypt, I ask you to give liberal democratic voices such as Ayman Noor the freedom to operate on a grassroots level. Mr. President, it hurts me to see Islamists and Nasserites (remnants of the Nasser era) as the only vocal opposition to you. Egypt deserves better opposition entities and you can help in creating them. Yesterday I was standing at a newsstand and I overheard a man asking for Al Ghad party's (Noor's party) newspaper. The seller told him that the weekly newspaper vanished from the market because of the high demand for it. You should be grateful that this man wasn't seeking an Islamist paper!To sum up, Noor should not have been arrested in the first place. My president is a very smart politician and he should have realized back then that what happened with Saad Eddin Ibrahim will happen again with Ayman Noor. In addition, President Mubarak should have understood that the US will not play by pre-911 rules any more. The resident of the White House today is so determined about this "democracy in the Middle East thing". His mind is as stubborn as a well done piece of steak. After all, he's from Texas remember.UPDATE:Ayman Noor refused to be released on bail. His lawyer said that Noor considers his case to be politically motivated and he will not accept to pay "a price for his freedom".

Ayman Nour Freed !!!

Egyptian Opposition Leader Freed on Bail
By SALAH NASRAWIThe Associated PressSaturday, March 12, 2005; 11:59 AM
CAIRO, Egypt - Opposition leader and presidential hopeful Ayman Nour walked out of Cairo's central security headquarters Saturday and was whisked to the shoulders of his supporters after posting bail in a case that angered Washington and undermined Egypt's talk of democratic reform.
Nour, in a white prison jump suit, stepped out looking frail, but blew kisses to the crowd of supporters. He flashed a V-for-victory sign from over their heads.
Judicial authorities announced earlier Saturday that bail had been set at $1,725.
"I am so happy. Ayman is of the people, for the people. He was never a stooge of the authorities," his wife, Gamila Ismail, said.
Nour was arrested on Jan. 29, accused of presenting fraudulent signatures in order to win the license for his party - but he was never formally charged and he and his supporters say the detention was political, aiming to eliminate him as a rival to the ruling party.
Washington had joined the calls for his release.
Nour last week announced his decision to run for the presidency since President Hosni Mubarak surprised the country last month by ordering a constitutional amendment to allow multi-candidate polls for president.
Egypt had previously held presidential referendums in which people vote "yes" or "no" for a single candidate approved by parliament.
Supporters trilled with joy, and threw candy in the air to celebrate Nour's release, bringing the main street in front of downtown Cairo's central security headquarters to a standstill.
The ailing Nour was carried to a pickup truck, his aides trying to keep the swarming crowds from crushing in too close. His wife quickly stole a hug before the vehicle sped off toward the offices of a charitable organization he founded in a nearby neighborhood.
Nour's Al-Ghad Party welcomed the prosecutor's decision.
"Now we hope that Ayman will be referred to a fair and quick trial," said Ragab Hilal Hmeida, the party's secretary general.
Al-Ghad has only seven legislators in Egypt's 454-seat parliament but the detention of the populist politician has drawn wide attention, partly because Nour champions a call for more than one candidate to be allowed to run in this year's presidential elections.
International human rights groups had called on Egypt to release Nour, saying his detention is politically motivated. The prosecutor general has denied this.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she raised "very strong concerns" about Nour's detention when she met Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit in Washington last week.

Here come the Sanctions - or a Free Lebanon

Top U.N. Envoy To Present Syria With Ultimatum
Nation Must Withdraw From Lebanon or Face Isolation
By Robin WrightWashington Post Staff WriterFriday, March 11, 2005; Page A01
A top U.N. envoy will tell President Bashar Assad that Syria will face political and economic isolation if he does not completely and quickly withdraw from Lebanon, U.N. and U.S. officials said yesterday.
In a meeting set for tomorrow, Terje Roed-Larsen plans to inform Syria that the international community is united in insisting that Damascus comply with U.N. Resolution 1559 -- and is prepared to impose wide punitive sanctions if it does not act quickly, the officials said.
"If he doesn't deliver, there will be total political and economic isolation of his country. There is a steel-hard consensus in the international community," a senior U.N. official said.
In preparation for the diplomatic confrontation, Roed-Larsen has met over the past week with top U.S., European and Arab officials to determine the positions and parameters of action. In a final round of talks, he met yesterday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and also won backing from the Arab League in talks with its secretary general, Amr Mousa, earlier this week -- discussions aimed at leaving Syria no political escape routes, the source said.
The U.N. official said Roed-Larsen had found "remarkable" support for a tough showdown with Assad. The fury over Syria's domination of Lebanon for almost three decades erupted quickly after the Feb. 14 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, who had resigned to protest Syria's political manipulation last fall to keep Lebanese President Emile Lahoud in power three years beyond the constitutional limit.
The timing of Hariri's death, apparently by a car bomb that killed 17 others, happened amid a new U.S. and European effort to promote democracy in the Middle East. Hariri, who led a growing opposition movement, had ties to top U.S., U.N., French and Saudi officials, many of whom now champion Lebanon as a top priority.
Roed-Larsen will tell Assad that he must take four steps, U.S. and U.N. officials say.
First, Syria must honor the independent sovereignty of Lebanon and not undermine its spring elections for a new parliament. Roed-Larsen "will imprint on everybody that there is a united demand from the international community for free and fair elections" that will include international observers, the U.N. source said.
Second, Assad must provide a complete timeline for a full pullout of troops. The international community will accept "sequencing," or a phased withdrawal, but it must be expeditious, the source said.
Third, Damascus must provide a timeline for the pullout of 5,000 intelligence agents in Lebanon.
Finally, Roed-Larsen will discuss other requirements in Resolution 1559, including the need to disarm and dismantle foreign and domestic militias operating in Lebanon, all of which Syria supports, U.N. and U.S. officials said. But the United Nations is prepared to wait until after the election to allow a new Lebanese government to deal with the militia problem.
"Clearly the presence of Syrian forces and Syrian intelligence agents is incompatible with a fully fair election, untainted by outside interference. And that's the basis of 1559," State Department deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said yesterday.
The impact of extensive sanctions on Syria could be devastating, U.S. experts and oil analysts said
"They're very, very worried about being isolated," said Theodore H. Kattouf, former U.S. ambassador to Syria. "Syria's economy is weak. It has a strong overlay of socialism and the limited capitalism is beset by cronyism and corruption. In the past, Syria has always had an economic savior, be it subsidies from the Gulf, free oil from Iran in the 1980s, large payments of gratitude from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for [military] participation in the first Gulf War [against Iraq], incredibly cheap oil from Saddam Hussein. So there was always someone to bail out Syria. Plus, there were all the years of cheap military equipment from the Soviet Union.
"When you look around now, who will bail out Syria's economy? The impact of isolation would further weaken a weak economy, lower living and thereby increase popular discontent," he added.
Syria was worried enough about being isolated after the U.S. Congress passed the Syrian Accountability Act -- which called for punitive steps against Damascus -- that it hastily concluded an economic cooperation agreement with the European Union to have a lifeline, Kattouf said.
Comprehensive sanctions have rarely been imposed by the United Nations or large groups of nations. Among the few countries to face widespread economic embargoes and diplomatic sanctions were Iraq during the final decade of Hussein's rule, North Korea, Libya and Iran during the drawn-out drama after the U.S. Embassy takeover from 1979 to 1981.
Iraq survived the most stringent U.N. sanctions because it sold oil illegally -- including to Syria. "But that would be more difficult for Syria because it doesn't have the same kind of middleman arrangements or pipelines, and everyone knows Lebanon doesn't produce crude so you can't export [Syrian crude] through Lebanon," said Jamal Qureshi, an oil market analyst at PFC Energy.
At a high point in the mid-1990s, Syria produced about 550,000 barrels of oil per day, but now produces about e 400,000, and most of it is for domestic consumption, he added. Syria exports about 150,000 barrels a day for an income of $200 million a month, a major source of badly needed foreign exchange for Syria. "If you could get U.N.-imposed sanctions, rather than just U.S. sanctions, then it would certainly hurt Syria," Qureshi said.
Roed-Larsen will also travel to Lebanon, first in a symbolic move before the Syrian stop to pay respects to Hariri's family. After his talks in Damascus, he will return to Beirut to meet Lahoud and Prime Minister Omar Karimi, who are aligned with Syria, as well as key leaders of the Lebanese opposition, U.N. officials said.

Three Cheers for the Bush Doctrine - Charles Krauthammer

Three Cheers for the Bush Doctrine
Charles Krauthammer, Time.com 3/7/05
History has begun to speak, and it says that America made the right decision to invade Iraq

Monday, Mar. 07, 2005
Jon Stewart, the sage of Comedy Central, is one of the few to be honest about it. "What if Bush ... has been right about this all along? I feel like my world view will not sustain itself and I may ... implode." Daniel Schorr, another critic of the Bush foreign policy, ventured, a bit more grudgingly, that Bush "may have had it right."
Right on what? That America, using power harnessed to democratic ideals, could begin a transformation of the Arab world from endless tyranny and intolerance to decent governance and democratization. Two years ago, shortly before the invasion of Iraq, I argued in these pages that forcefully deposing Saddam Hussein was, more than anything, about America "coming ashore" to effect a "pan-Arab reformation"--a dangerous, "risky and, yes, arrogant" but necessary attempt to change the very culture of the Middle East, to open its doors to democracy and modernity.
The Administration went ahead with this great project knowing it would be hostage to history. History has begun to speak. Elections in Afghanistan, a historic first. Elections in Iraq, a historic first. Free Palestinian elections producing a moderate leadership, two historic firsts. Municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, men only, but still a first. In Egypt, demonstrations for democracy--unheard of in decades--prompting the dictator to announce free contested presidential elections, a historic first.
And now, of course, the most romantic flowering of the spirit America went into the region to foster: the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon, in which unarmed civilians, Christian and Muslim alike, brought down the puppet government installed by Syria. There is even the beginning of a breeze in Damascus. More than 140 Syrian intellectuals have signed a public statement defying their government by opposing its occupation of Lebanon.
To what do we attribute this Arab spring? While American (and European) liberal and "realist" critics are seeking some explanation, those a bit closer to the scene don't flinch from the obvious. "It is strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt explained to David Ignatius of the Washington Post. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world. The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."
When Ronald Reagan declared that the unfreedom imposed by communism was simply unsustainable and that it should be not appeased or accommodated, but instead forced--by the power and will of free peoples--into the ash heap of history, he was ridiculed and patronized as a simpleton. Clark Clifford famously called him an amiable dunce. The amiable dunce went on to win the cold war.
Two decades later, another patronized President. Our intellectuals and Middle East "experts" have been telling us that Bush's grand project to democratize the region is the fantasy of a historical illiterate. Faced with the stunning Iraqi election, they went to great lengths to attribute this inconvenient yet undeniable success to the courage of the Iraqi people.
This is all very nice. But this courage was rather dormant before the American invasion. It was America's overthrow of Saddam's republic of fear that gave to the Iraqi people space and air and the very possibility of expressing courage.
Those now waxing rhapsodic about the courage of the natives and the beauty of people power need to ask themselves the obvious question: Why now? It is easy to get sentimental about people power. But people power does not always prevail. Indeed, it rarely prevails. It was crushed in Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968, Tiananmen Square 1989--and Iraq 1991. Matched against tyranny at its point of maximum cruelty, people power is useless.
In the 1991 uprising, tens of thousands of Shi'ites and Kurds were killed by the raw power of Saddam's helicopters and tanks and secret police. What was different this time? No Saddam. The American army had come ashore to disarm and depose him. After the sword, it provided the shield to allow 8 million Iraqis to revel in their first exercise of democratic self-governance.
Why now? Because until now the forces of decency in the region were alone and naked, cynically ignored by an outside world content to deal with their oppressors. Then comes America, not just proclaiming democratic liberation as its overriding foreign policy principle but sacrificing blood and treasure in the service of precisely that principle.
It was not people power that set this in motion. It was American power. People power followed. Which is why the critics of the Bush doctrine take refuge in a second Bush-free explanation. They locate the reason for this astonishing Arab spring, if not in people power from below, then in rot from above. These superannuated dictatorships, we are now told, were fossilized and frail, already wobbly and ready to fall, just waiting to be undone by the slightest challenge.
Interesting. If the rot was always there, why is it that these critics never said so before? They never suggested that we challenge these wobbly despots? In fact, they bitterly denounced the Bush doctrine for presuming to destabilize the region in pursuit of some democratic chimera? They opposed the Bush doctrine precisely because they preferred stability. They warned us darkly that the alternative to the status quo was the seething Arab street--an unruly mob, anarchic, anti-American, pan-Arabist or perhaps Islamist, ignorant of all liberal traditions and ready to rise up against America should it disturb the perfect order of things by "imposing democracy."
Turns out, the critics, liberal and "realist," got the Arab street wrong. In Iraq and Lebanon, the Arab street finally got to speak, and mirabile dictu, it speaks of freedom and dignity. It does not bay for American blood. On the contrary, its leaders now openly point to the American example and American intervention as having provided the opening for this first tentative venture in freedom.
What really changed in the Middle East? The Iraqi elections vindicated the two central propositions of the Bush doctrine. First, that the will to freedom is indeed universal and not the private preserve of Westerners. And second, that American intentions were sincere. Contrary to the cynics, Arab and European and American, the U.S. did not go into Iraq for oil or hegemony, after all, but for liberation--a truth that on Jan. 31 even al-Jazeera had to televise.
This was the critical event because Arabs have had good reason to doubt American sincerity: six decades of U.S. support for Arab dictators, a cynical "realism" that began with F.D.R.'s deal with Ibn Saud and reached its apogee with the 1991 betrayal of the anti-Saddam uprising that Bush 41 had encouraged in Iraq. Today, however, they see a different Bush and a different doctrine. What changed the climate in the Middle East was not just the U.S. invasion and show of arms. It was U.S. determination and staying power, and the refusal of its people last November to turn out a President who rejected an "exit strategy" but pledged instead to remain until Iraqi self-governance was secure.
It took this marriage of power, will and principle to produce the astonishing developments in the Middle East today. This is not to say that this spring cannot be extinguished. Of course it can. The dictators can still strike back, and we may flinch in defense of those they strike. History has yet to yield a verdict on the final outcome. But it has yielded one unmistakable verdict thus far: the idea that Arabs are not fit for or inclined toward freedom--the underlying assumption of those who denounced, ridiculed and otherwise opposed the democracy project--is wrong. Embarrassingly, scandalously, blessedly wrong.

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Charles Krauthammer writes a syndicated column for the Washington Post that appears in more than 125 newspapers worldwide. He writes an essay each month for TIME. [more]

Where Have All the Children Gone?, Pavel Kohout Tech Central Station

Pavel expands on a theory I mentioned several days ago around Europe's demographics problem - without immigration, Europe is shrinking. Shrinking populations have always been terribly bad, historically speaking. Especially now, with Europe's socialistic programs will exacerbate this problem. I believe that through democratic reform of the middle east, emigration from the middle east to europe will slow dramatically, thereby making europe's problem even worse.


Where Have All the Children Gone?
By Pavel Kohout Published 01/27/2005

TCS
In the third century AD there was a prophet called Mani. He preached a doctrine of conflict between Good and Evil. He saw the material world as the devil's creation. Marriage and motherhood was a grave sin in his view, since by bearing children people multiply the works of Satan. The Manichean ideal was to move mankind to a superterrestrial realm of Good by way of gradual extinction.
In the course of history, Manichaeism was ruthlessly eradicated as an heretical, ungodly doctrine. When looking at demographic statistics, however, one might think that the populations in developed countries have converted en masse to Manichaeism and decided to become extinct. The birth rate in most western countries has fallen bellow replacement level. In the so-called "New Europe", the situation is even gloomier. According to UN projections, Latvia will lose 44 percent of its population by 2050 as a result of demographic trends. In Estonia, the population is expected to shrink by 52 percent, in Bulgaria 36 percent, in Ukraine 35 percent, and in Russia 30 percent. In comparison with these figures, the projected population decline in Italy (22 percent), the Czech Republic (17 percent), Poland (15 percent) or Slovakia (8 percent) looks like a small decrease. France and Germany will lose relatively little population, and the population of the United Kingdom will even see a slight growth -- thanks to immigrants.
Why is the birth rate falling?
The question of why fertility has been falling so dramatically in continental Europe has been food for thought for both demographers and economists. The answer must be looked for in several important factors, which, to further complicate matters, do not simply add up in their impact. Nevertheless, it can be said with a fair amount of certainty that the existence of pay-as-you-go pension systems has had a very negative impact on birth rate. The National Report on Family published by the Czech Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs in August 2004 says:
"In terms of intergenerational solidarity, the importance of the child as an investment for material support in old age has been limited by the social security and pension insurance system, which has eliminated people's immediate dependence on children. The importance of the child's role in relation to its parents has transferred to the emotional sphere, which reduced the direct material indispensability of children in a family, while also allowing for them being replaced with certain substitutes bringing emotional satisfaction."
To put it straightforwardly, and perhaps a little cynically, in the past children used to be regarded as investments that provided their parents with means of subsistence in old age. In Czech the word "vejminek" (a place in a farmhouse reserved for the farmer's old parents) is actually derived from a verb meaning "to stipulate": in the deed of transfer, the old farmer stipulated the conditions on which the farm was to be transferred to his son. Instead of an "intergenerational" policy, there used to be direct dependence of parents on their children. This meant that people had immediate economic motivation to have a sufficiently numerous and well-bred offspring - whereas today's anonymous system makes all workers pay for the pensions of all retirees in an utterly depersonalized manner.
This system enables huge numbers of "free riders" to receive more than what would correspond to their overall contribution in their productive life. Those with incomes way above the average, on the contrary, are penalized, as the system gives them less money than they contributed to it. This is referred to as the "solidarity principle". In terms of birth rate, this arrangement is discouraging for both the low-income group and the high-income one. The latter feel that they are not going to need children in the old age, while the former believe that they can't afford to have them.
Today, children no longer represent investments; instead, they have become pets - objects of luxury consumption. However, the pet market segment is very competitive. It is characteristic that the birth rate decline in the 1980s, and especially in the 1990s, was accompanied by soaring numbers of dog-owners in cities. While in the past dog-owners were predominantly retirees, today there are many young couples that have consciously decided to have a dog instead of a baby. These are mainly young professionals who have come to a conclusion (whether right or wrong) that they lack either time or money to have a child. Thus, they invest their emotional surpluses into animals.
Taxes are pivotal
State pensions systems eliminated the natural economic incentive to have children. At the same time, the welfare state is an enormously costly luxury that has to be financed from taxes. High payroll-tax and social security contributions reduce the earning capacity of people in fertile age. Thus, they push down birth rates as well.
A reader of the Wall Street Journal wrote in a letter on the issue: "I am the son of a Pittsburgh steelworks worker. I was born at the end of the Second World War. I have three sisters. Our mother never went to work. After the experience of the Great Depression, our parents were reluctant to borrow; yet they could afford to own a house, and our father used to buy a new car once every three or four years. My parents paid for my university education and bought me my first car when I was twenty. We were by all standards part of the middle class, and I was proud of my parents' achievement. (…) Today both my parents have to go to work in order to maintain a middle-class living standard, due to the increase in taxation that has occurred in the past half-century. (…) This has produced a generation of children carrying a key around their necks, city gangs, and aggressive brats brought up by after-school child-care centers."
The tax burden in the United Stated has indeed grown significantly over the past 50 years. The birth rate has been falling proportionately, although not to the critical level that is now current in Europe. The birth rate in the US is nearing the replacement level -- about two children per woman. Even so, comparing to Europe, the United States still appears to be a confirmed and stable superpower.
"Even if we include immigration, the population of the original EU-12 will fall by 7.5 million over the next 45 years, according to the UN calculations. Since the times of the 'Black Death' epidemic in the fourteenth century, Europe has never seen such an extensive population decline," writes Niall Ferguson, a British historian. He also predicts that in 2000-2050, the US population will grow by 44 percent. It seems that the European Union will have to forget for good about its ambitious dreams of becoming a "counterbalance" to America.
The demographic trends in Europe are indeed worrying. In Italy, for instance, the birth rate has fallen to an average level of 1.2 children per woman. Why? A journalist from the Daily Telegraph describes the life of young Italians in the following terms:
"It is virtually impossible to make a living. Just take Rome. Life with a minimum of human dignity (a small rented apartment, occasional dinner in a
restaurant) requires a monthly pay of 3,000 euros before taxation, which accounts for some 1,800 euros after tax. If in the Anglo-Saxon world a majority of adults is expected to live an independent life on their own salaries, in Italy this is often not the case. An incredible 70 percent of unmarried Italians aged between 25 and 29 live with their parents, where they benefit from subsidized housing and where their poor incomes amount to a handsome pocket money."
When a modern young European has to choose between setting up a family of his own and a comfortable life without children, he is very likely to pick the latter option -- unless he belongs to a social class which regards children chiefly as a source of social benefits. A high amount of taxation combined with ill-functioning labor and housing markets is a truly genocidal mix. That is the case of Italy, but also Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. Its impact cannot be corrected by all sorts of government subsidies paid out to young families. On the contrary, under certain circumstances the benefits for families may even lead to a drop in birth rate.
The traditional model, which exists especially in Spain and Italy, but to a large extent also in East and Central Europe, emphasizes the successive steps in setting up a family. First, a young man graduates from a college or vocational school; then he secures his living, which is followed by marriage; and only then children are born. This succession not only conforms to social conventions but is also based on a profound economic
logic: it is simply foolish to start having children before getting a living. The taboo of sex in Western cultures has profound economic reasons.
The troubles start when one link of this chain breaks. In contemporary Europe, the main problem lies in the second link: making a living. Unemployment among young graduates tends to be much higher than the average of the working-age population as a whole. In countries such as France, Spain, Finland, Greece or Italy, 20 to 30 percent of young people are unemployed. What birth rate can we expect, if a fifth or even a third of young population is unable to make a living due to a distorted labor market?
But there is another problem. The payroll-tax and social security contributions are up, while investments in capital equipment are made tax-advantageous. The government support of the existing families comes at the cost of heavier tax burden for young people who have not yet founded a family. The so-called "support for families" thus hinders the creation of new families, and effectively reduces birth rate. If a young unmarried person is left with mere pocket money after his salary has been taxed, he will hardly be able to make sufficient savings to set up a family. The politicians of most European countries are living in a reality gap if they cannot see this trivial economic connection.
The pay-as-you-go system and its inevitable collapse
Some people believe that there is nothing wrong with a low birth rate, as the planet is at any rate overpopulated. Yes, one cannot set the "right" amount of population for a country or a continent by "scientific" means. What we can determine, however, is which age structure of population is favorable, and which is disastrous. In a few decades, a large part of Europe will be dominated by a very unfavorable age structure, typical with an enormous increase in the number of retirement-aged people.
To be accurate, it is not yet clear at what age today's young people and children will retire -- if they retire at all. The pay-as-you-go pension systems will inevitably undergo a long and severe crisis, the result of which can, to a certain extent, be reckoned today. There are several scenarios, the most likely of which suggests that retirement age will gradually have to be raised. The most recent Insurance-Mathematic Report on Social Insurance produced by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs in 2004 suggests that "the gradual raising of the age limit for the eligibility for old-age pension could substantially eliminate the impact of the expected ageing of the Czech population. It is also clear that a freezing of this age limit would lead to a sharp growth in the level of elderly dependency."
Translated into a simple and straightforward language, this means that retirement age will have to be constantly raised: at first to 65 years, then (sometime in the early 2030s) to 67, and so on. To stop this growth would drag the system relatively quickly into a crisis. In other words: a pay-as-you-go system may work for another few decades, before being gradually marginalized by the rise in retirement age. The pay-as-you-go system was a huge political and economic experiment; and the generation of today's children will witness its failure.
But perhaps people will just return to the 1880s, when in Bismarck's Germany the retirement age was 70 years -- with an average life expectancy of less than 50 years. If in 2050, for instance, the official retirement age becomes 90, with an average life expectancy around 80, then the pay-as-you-go system can be sustainable in the long term. But a good social security at an age of around 60 will be completely out of the question for those who are now children.
On the other hand, if the retirement age remains unchanged, the tax burden could eventually rise up to 70-75 percent of gross wages. In such a case, however, the younger and more educated portion of working-age population would undoubtedly migrate to countries with lower taxes: particularly to Britain, Ireland, or the United States. These countries also have much less trouble with their demographic structure. Over the next 50 years, the United States may hugely benefit from accepting a wave of emigrants who will have been chased out of Europe by high taxes -- and maybe not only high taxes.
The end of democracy in Europe?
The prophet Mani is dead. But another prophet's teaching is still very much alive. In 2002 the most common first name given to newborn babies was Mohamed. The name Osama finished at a handsome 12th position.
In the 1960s there were only about 350,000 North-African Muslims living in France, with some 1.25 million French living in North Africa. Since then, the notion of "colonialism" has completely reversed. There are almost no French living in North Africa, but the number of Muslims of African or Middle-Eastern origin in France is estimated at 4 to 10 million. The exact number of legal and illegal immigrants is unknown, for the sole reason that French statisticians are not allowed to collect information on ethnic and religious patterns of population.
Nevertheless, some estimates suggest that one in three births in France occurs in a Muslim family. That would explain, among other things, why France has a much higher birth rate (about 1.7 children per woman) than Spain or Italy. Stripped of this influence, the French birth rate would be around 1.2 children per woman, which is a figure similar to those in the countries of South and East Europe.
A Russian-Israeli journalist Shlomo Groman writes:
"Go to any child-care store in Vienna. Its clients will be predominantly Arabic, Iranian, Pakistani, Turkish, Japanese, Korean, and Black African. Viennese women never bear children -- they cherish their figures and careers instead. The Western-European pension systems made the bringing up of children less advantageous than social climbing and maximization of income."
Culture seems to play an even more crucial role than taxes or pension systems. The countries of the former Soviet Union are an interesting "demographic laboratory" in this respect. We have already mentioned Ukraine, Baltic States, and Russia. The situation in the Muslim republics
-- Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan -- is completely
different: almost all of them are living a population explosion. The living standard in these countries is close to that of Georgia or Armenia, i.e. poor. But Georgia and Armenia suffer from the same demographic shock as, for instance, the Baltic States. The difference lies in the traditionally Christian character of the latter countries. The position of women in society is perhaps a little different from that of the rich European countries, but comparing to Muslim countries these differences do not count much. In terms of birth rate, they are almost negligible. Armenia will lose a quarter of its population by 2050, while the population of the neighboring Azerbaijan will surge by a third.
The international demographic context will see huge changes: in 2050, Yemen will have more population than, for example, Germany. These people will quite understandably long for the standard of living that currently prevails in Europe. The immigration pressure on Europe will be immense. Given the European liberal laws on family reunification, the exodus from Middle East and North Africa will have enormous dimensions.
Instead of integration of immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa into a majority European society, the opposite will occur: the immigrants will integrate the existing European culture into their own civilization. After some time, it will be their civilization that will become dominant. One does not have to be a supporter of Jean-Marie Le Pen to feel a little anxious about that. It is not a problem of ethnics and their mingling. It is a matter of society, its values, and democracy as such. European tolerance competes with Islam, which is not always a religion of peace, as many Europeans would like to believe. Radical Islamic preachers openly condemn democracy. They interpret it not as a social system but as a pagan cult, which prefers the voices of people to the voice of God. This and other theories of Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi and his conservative fellow-believers are proclaimed in many mosques throughout Europe.
If as a result of demographic trends a large part of future Europeans will have dark skin and go to mosque, why not? But if they become a threat to the European tradition of democracy and tolerance, it will be a tragedy.
The author is an associate of the Center for Economics and Politics (CEP), Prague.

Yemen & Womens Rights

Show me the Muslims!
By Sarah Hullah
Yemen Observer
Feb 19, 2005 - Vol.VIII Issue 07
''Tell the believing men to lower their gaze and to be mindful of their
chastity: this will be most conducive to their purity—verily, God is aware of all that we do. And tell the believing women to lower their gaze and to be mindful of their chastity." (Qur'an, 24: 30-31) As the streets of Sana’a become increasingly intimidating and even dangerous for women, I ask you: When was the last time you averted your eyes?
The Qur’an may set different duties for men and women, but in the above verse the obligation for both is the same: women must turn their eyes away from a man’s presence, men must turn their eyes away from a woman’s presence.
How does it happen then, that I—as well as every Yemeni woman I have spoken to—am constantly harassed when men should not even be looking at me? Every single day in Sana’a I suffer horrendous verbal abuse. Often I suffer physical abuse.
These are not isolated incidents. These are not trivial matters which can be ignored, let alone borne. These attacks are criminal acts which are going unnoticed in a hypocritical society.
As an outsider looking at Yemen, I find it strange that with regard to abuse, women are the only ones who are obligated to take preventative action by covering. Not that this works—men here shout obscenities, or worse, regardless of what a woman is wearing. But as far as I can tell, men aren’t expected to exert themselves even by thinking before opening their mouths—let alone feeling any remorse for their actions. It seems illogical to me that the gender that is stared at, ogled, harassed, molested or even spat upon in wholly unprovoked attacks is expected to cover with the sole intention of preventing these occurrences, while the harassment—the crime—is taken as a cultural normality. How can it be so accepted that it is the victim alone who must take the action, and therefore the blame, in these situations?
When the victim of a crime is made to accept total blame for the actions of the aggressor, we reinforce the notion that the perpetrator is doing no wrong. We clear the guilty minds of the offenders by removing all responsibility for their actions. This ensures that the problem will never be addressed, and therefore never stop. In this country it is not even considered a problem; it is "just the nature of Yemeni men"—which they can hardly be considered responsible for. The focus has been moved to covering up anything which may provoke them. This method of dealing with the situation plainly shows that they have no control over their criminal urges and are not expected to.
People have argued that what separates us from the animals is that we deal with our urges and base instincts in different ways: humans have evolved and can curb theirs. So ask yourself: Are you a human or an animal?
There are duties for those who are tempted to behave like uncivilized beasts. The abovementioned verse does exist—it is in the Holy Qur’an no less—and therefore must be adhered to. People are reading this verse every day. What I cannot understand is why it is read but not practiced.
I have been to over forty countries on six continents and have lived in many of them, but before I came here I had no idea there existed a country with so little respect for others. Never have I felt as defeated as I have in this country. I have to force myself to leave my home every day, as I know there will be the inevitable barrage of abuse from the moment I leave the house. There has not been a single day without these offensive incidents, though the days do vary in their severity.
Most days I am stared at for the entire half-hour bus ride to work. This never used to bother me, but since being physically assaulted I find even this hard to bear. Every day I have repulsive insults screamed at me either in English or in Arabic. These are usually of a sexual nature and are hurled at me by groups of men, sometimes walking with their children. Other times I have been touched—sometimes the cowards pretend it is an accident and sometimes they touch me and run. Sometimes they touch themselves, which is just as disgusting. We have deviated a long way from the word of God when physical contact—either touching yourself or touching a woman you don’t know—has become accepted in this society.
I try and put myself into these men’s minds, but find that I cannot think like somebody who revels in intimidating another person. In fact, I cannot think of anyone from my country, or for that matter from any one of the other countries I have been to, where people try to hurt others at random—except perhaps schoolchildren. Children everywhere try and put others down to make themselves feel good or important.
When I talk to Yemeni men about these daily problems, only a small minority grudgingly agree that it happens here, even though the majority of men say they refuse to let their sisters and daughters walk alone because "it is bad out there". Those who do admit the fact usually suggest that it happens like this in my country, too. I say no. No way. In my country harassment is not only spurned on moral grounds, but it is illegal—verbal as well as physical and sexual harassment. People would be immediately picked up by the police for any such actions. Here in Yemen, not only am I afraid of going to the police, but it is often the police who harass me in the first place.
Even if this harassment is not instigated by every citizen, it does affect the entire society. It reflects badly upon the men who look on and do nothing as others are attacked, the women who don’t complain but just accept it when they are harassed themselves, and the mothers and fathers who do not teach their sons and daughters that this is wrong. I often wonder if children here are brought up to respect their fellow human beings at all—they seem to have nothing but contempt for women, at any rate. It is still incomprehensible to me that a man or child in a conservative Muslim society could even get the idea of grabbing a woman on the bottom.
Every time a citizen behaves like a boor in front of a foreigner it confirms the misconception that Islam is offensive towards women. Many foreigners do come here with an open mind, ready to believe what they see with their own eyes—not what they have heard secondhand in the media. I cringe to think of how they must feel, and what they must tell their friends when they go home, after constantly seeing and experiencing such disgusting incidents as these occurring on the streets. No amount of Yemeni hospitality or generosity will erase those memories. I, for one, am leaving Yemen with a very sour taste in my mouth. Copyright (c) 2004 - 2005 Yemen Observer Newspaper

Womens Rights and Kuwait

Kuwait’s Islamists vow to thwart women's rights
By Omar Hasan - KUWAIT CITY
Middle East Online

Hardline Islamists kick off anti-women rights campaign citing sharia law that prohibits their participation in politics. Kuwait's hardline Islamists, citing foreign interference, have embarked on a counter-offensive in the face of a determined government-led drive to grant disenfranchised women their suffrage.
The anti-women rights campaign kicked off late Tuesday with a public rally hosted by tribal-Islamist lawmaker Daifallah Buramya under the slogan that "based on Islamic sharia law, women have no political rights".
Buramya vowed to oppose a government-sponsored draft law that would grant women the right to vote and run for public office, citing fatwas, or religious edicts, that prohibit participation of Muslim women in politics.
"Ninety percent of Kuwaiti women reject political rights because they know it is against religion," said the lawmaker who warned MPs of a "big shame" if they approved the bill.
The leader of the fundamentalist Islamic Salaf Alliance, Khaled al-Issa, criticised liberals and what he branded "agents of some foreign embassies," who are trying to distance Muslims from their religion by forcing women's rights.
"The constitution must represent the will of the Kuwaiti people and not foreign demands to change the political course we have chosen," said Issa, speaking at the same rally.
More rallies are scheduled before parliament votes on the draft legislation and Islamist activists have started using SMS text messages in their campaign.
Kuwait's Islamist Ummah Party however announced on February 21 its total backing for women's full political rights, becoming the first Sunni Muslim group in the Gulf emirate to support women's suffrage.
A second group, the Islamic Constitutional Movement, or Muslim Brotherhood, said it was still considering the issue as some of its leaders have publicly supported women's right to vote.
The bill, approved by the cabinet last May, calls for amending the election law, which limits voting and candidacy to Kuwaiti males while the emirate's constitution stipulates complete gender equality.
The Kuwaiti government in February called on parliament to hold a special session to debate the bill. State Minister for Cabinet Affairs Mohammad Daifallah Sharar said it will be debated this month.
Parliament is due to look into the government's request at its next session on March 7 when a date for the special session could be set. Parliamentary sources said the draft legislation could be debated on March 12.
The government is reported to have formed a three-minister committee to garner support among MPs for the bill.
Liberal-leaning Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah reiterated Wednesday the government's resolve to see the bill approved by parliament and for women to attain full political rights.
Energy Minister Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah said earlier in the week that women will be appointed in the cabinet once the law is enacted.
"The government is absolutely determined this time. It is exerting efforts, making contacts and throwing its full weight behind the bill," said Sami al-Nesf, media advisor to the Kuwaiti premier.
"It is unthinkable to be in the 21st century and Kuwaiti women are still deprived of their political and civil rights," Nesf said.
To pass, the bill requires a simple majority of the 49 elected MPs and the 16 ministers who are entitled to vote. One of the ministers is an elected deputy.
A similar bill, tabled by Emir Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Sabah, was narrowly defeated in November 1999 by an Islamist-tribal alliance which opposed women's rights on religious and social grounds.
Kuwait's next parliamentary elections are scheduled for July 2007.

Kuwaitis demand women's suffrage - Al Jazeera

ALL PEOPLE YEARN FOR FREEDOM



Kuwaitis demand women's suffrage
Monday 07 March 2005, 16:38 Makka Time, 13:38 GMT
Al Jazeera.net
About 500 Kuwaiti activists, mostly women, have demonstrated outside parliament to demand female suffrage amid tensions in the Gulf Arab state over a government drive to grant women political rights.

"Women's rights now," chanted the crowd, which included women dressed in abayas, or traditional long black cloaks. Some of the demonstrators wore veils over their faces.
"Our democracy will only be complete with women," said a placard written in Arabic. "We are not less, you are not more. We need a balance, open the door," said one written in English.
The crowd later attended a parliamentary session that approved a state request for a committee to speed up reviewing a bill allowing women to vote and run for parliament.
Parliamentary bloc
"In all Muslim countries from Indonesia to Morocco, voting and running for office are among women's rights, but we in Kuwait alone say 'No' ... Is it possible that 1 billion Muslims are wrong and we in Kuwait are right?" lawmaker Muhammad al-Saqr said to applause from female activists in the public gallery.
But the 50-man assembly, in which Islamists have a powerful bloc, did not set a date to discuss the draft law.
"We are not less, you are not more. We need a balance, open the door"
Protester's placard
During the session, 10 liberal and independent lawmakers withdrew a motion to refer the election law to the Constitutional Court, Kuwait's highest court that rules on the constitutionality of laws and amendments, saying they did not want to slow the state initiative.
Kuwait's constitution stipulates gender equality, but parliament has blocked previous government attempts to give women suffrage.
US-allied Kuwait proposed legislation in May allowing women to vote and run in parliamentary polls after a previous attempt in 1999 was blocked by Islamist and tribal lawmakers.
Government support
Kuwaiti newspapers said Prime Minister Shaikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah had threatened to dissolve parliament if it failed to approve the latest bill.
"I am very optimistic this time around that we will get our rights because ministers and deputies are working for this," said 55-year-old Mariam al-Jassar, a retired civil servant.
"Islam does not deny women's rights," the mother of seven said.
Some lawmakers have said they will back women voting but not running. Other Islamists and tribal legislators oppose the bill.
Washington has been pressing its allies in the Middle East to bring in political reforms, saying lack of freedom and democracy have fostered violent religious militancy.
Kuwaiti women traditionally have been more liberal and educated than those in other Gulf states, who have already won political rights in Bahrain and Qatar.

The President Speaks

President Bush delivers remarks at the National Defense University about the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
BUSH: Thank you all. Please be seated.
It is great to be back to this fine university. Many great military leaders of the 20th century, from Dwight Eisenhower to Colin Powell, studied on this campus.
And today, the National Defense University is training a new generation of leaders who will serve and defend this nation in a new century.
Americans are grateful for your devotion to duty and so is your commander in chief.
(APPLAUSE)
I am honored that two influential and important members of the United States Congress have joined us. First, Senator Joe Lieberman, a strong defender of freedom.
Thank you for coming, Senator.
(APPLAUSE)
And the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Congressman Duncan Hunter.
Proud you're here, Duncan. Thank you for coming.
(APPLAUSE)
In the midst of what we hope will be the final snow blizzard of 2005, I'm honored you two men slushed here to this event.
I appreciate very much Lieutenant General Michael Dunn (ph) and his wife Pam for greeting me and for serving our nation.
I want to thank all the National Defense University students for being here.
I appreciate the staff for joining us.
I want to thank the members of the diplomatic corps who have come today.
It is an honor to see you all again.
I want to thank my fellow Americans for caring about the subject of peace. And that's what I'm here to discuss.
We meet at a time of great consequence for the security of our nation, a time when the defense of freedom requires the advance of freedom, a time with echoes in our history.
Twice in six decades a sudden attack on the United States launched our country into a global conflict and began a period of serious reflection on America's place in the world.
The bombing of Pearl Harbor taught America that unopposed tyranny, even on faraway continents, could draw our country into a struggle for our own survival. And our reflection on that lesson led us to help build peaceful democracies in the ruins of tyranny, to unite free nations in the NATO alliance, and to establish a firm commitment to peace in the Pacific that continues to this day.
BUSH: The attacks of September 11, 2001, also revealed the outlines of a new world.
In one way that assault was the culmination of decades of escalating
violence: from the killing of U.S. Marines in Beirut, to the bombing at the World Trade Center, to the attacks on American embassies in Africa, to the attacks on the USS Cole.
In another way, September the 11th provided a warning of future dangers, of terror networks aided by outlaw regimes and ideologies that incite the murder of the innocent, and biological and chemical and nuclear weapons that multiply destructive power.
Like an earlier generation, America is answering new dangers with firm resolve. No matter how long it takes, no matter how difficult the task, we will fight the enemy and lift the shadow of fear and lead free nations to victory.
(APPLAUSE)
Like an earlier generation, America's pursuing a clear strategy with our allies to achieve victory.
Our immediate strategy is to eliminate terrorist threats abroad so we do not have to face them here at home.
The theory here is straightforward: Terrorists are less likely to endanger our security if they're worried about their own security.
When terrorists spend their day struggling to avoid death or capture they are less capable of arming and training to commit new attacks.
BUSH: We will keep the terrorists on the run until they have nowhere left to hide.
In three and a half years, the United States and our allies have waged a campaign of global scale, from the mountains of Afghanistan to the border regions of Pakistan, to the Horn of Africa, to the islands of the Philippines, to the plains of north-central Iraq.
The Al Qaida terror network that attacked our country -- it still has leaders, but many of its top commanders have been removed. There are still governments that sponsor and harbor terrorists, but their number has declined. There's still regimes seeking weapons of mass destruction, but no longer without attention and without consequence.
Our country is still the target of terrorists who want to kill many and intimidate us all. We will stay on the offensive against them until the fight is won.
(APPLAUSE)
Members of our military are undertaking difficult missions in some of the most dangerous and desolate parts of the world. These volunteers know the risks they face and they know the cause they serve.
As one Marine sergeant put it, "I never want my children to experience what we saw in New York, at the Pentagon and in Pennsylvania." He said, "If we can eliminate whatever threat we can on foreign soil, I would rather do it there than have it come home to us."
In this vital cause, some of our men and women in uniform have fallen. Some have returned home with terrible injuries.
BUSH: And all who sacrifice will have the permanent gratitude of the United States of America.
(APPLAUSE)
In this war on terror America is not alone. Many governments have awakened to the dangers we share and have begun to take serious action.
Global terror requires a global response and America is more secure today because dozens of other countries have stepped up to the fight.
We're more secure because Pakistani forces captured more than 100 extremists across the country last year, including operatives who were plotting attacks against the United States.
We're more secure because Britain arrested an Al Qaida operative who had provided detailed casing reports on American targets to senior Al Qaida leaders.
We're more secure because German authorities arrested extremists who were planning attacks against U.S. and coalition targets in Iraq.
We're more secure because the Philippines' new anti-terrorism task force has helped capture more than a dozen terrorist suspects, including seven members of Al Qaida and affiliated networks.
We're more secure because Poland is leading a 15-nation multinational division in Iraq and forces from 23 countries have given their lives in the struggle against terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Our allies in the war on terror are making tough decisions and are taking risks and they're losing lives. These countries have proven themselves trusted friends and reliable allies.
So I urge the Congress to pass the solidarity initiative I have proposed to stand by the countries that are standing by us in the war on terror.
(APPLAUSE)
BUSH: Our strategy to keep the peace in the longer term is to help change the conditions that give rise to extremism and terror, especially in the broader Middle East.
Parts of that region have been caught for generations in the cycle of tyranny and despair and radicalism.
When a dictatorship controls the political life of a country, responsible opposition cannot develop and dissent is driven underground and toward the extreme.
And to draw attention away from their social and economic failures, dictators place blame on other countries and other races and stir the hatred that leads to violence.
This status quo of despotism and anger cannot be ignored or appeased, kept in a box or bought off.
Because we have witnessed how the violence in that region can easily reach across borders and oceans, the entire world has an urgent interest in the progress and hope and freedom in the broader Middle East.
The advance of hope in the Middle East requires new thinking in the region.
By now it should be clear that authoritarian rule is not the wave of the future, it is the last gasp of a discredited past.
It should be clear that free nations escape stagnation and grow stronger with time because they encourage the creativity and enterprise of their people.
It should be clear that economic progress requires political modernization, including honest representative government and the rule of law.
BUSH: And it should be clear that no society can advance with only half of its talent and energy. And that demands the full participation of women.
(APPLAUSE)
The advance of hope in the Middle East also requires new thinking in the capitals of great democracies, including Washington, D.C.
By now it should be clear that decades of excusing and accommodating tyranny in the pursuit of stability have only led to injustice and instability and tragedy.
It should be clear that the advance of democracy leads to peace because governments that respect the rights of their people also respect the rights of their neighbors.
It should be clear that the best antidote to radicalism and terror is the tolerance and hope kindled in free societies.
And our duty is now clear: For the sake of our long-term security, all free nations must stand with the forces of democracy and justice that have begun to transform the Middle East.
Encouraging democracy in that region is a generational commitment. It's also a difficult commitment, demanding patience and resolve when the headlines are good and when the headlines aren't so good.
Freedom has determined enemies who show no mercy for the innocent and no respect for the rules of warfare.
Many societies in the region struggle with poverty and illiteracy. Many rulers in the region have long-standing habits of control. Many people in the region have deeply ingrained habits of fear.
For all of these reasons, the chances of democratic progress in the broader Middle East have seemed frozen in place for decades. Yet at last, clearly and suddenly, the thaw has begun.
The people of Afghanistan have embraced free government after suffering under one of the most backward tyrannies on Earth.
The voters in Iraq defied threats of murder and have set their country on a path to full democracy.
The people of the Palestinian territories cast their ballots againstviolence and corruption of the past.
And any who doubt the appeal of freedom in the Middle East can look to Lebanon, where the Lebanese people are demanding a free and independent nation.
BUSH: In the words of one Lebanese observer, "Democracy is knocking at the door of this country. And if it's successful in Lebanon, it is going to ring the doors of every Arab regime."
Across the Middle East, a critical mass of events is taking that region in a hopeful new direction. Historic changes have many causes, yet these changes have one factor in common. A businessmen in Beirut recently said, "We have removed the mask of fear. We're not afraid anymore."
Pervasive fear is the foundation of every dictatorial regime, the prop that holds up all power not based on consent. And when the regime of fear is broken and the people find their courage and find their voice, democracy is their goal and tyrants themselves have reason to fear.
(APPLAUSE)
History is moving quickly and leaders in the Middle East have important choices to make.
The world community, including Russia and Germany and France and Saudi Arabia and the United States, has presented the Syrian government with one of those choices: to end its nearly 30-year occupation of Lebanon or become even more isolated from the world.
The Lebanese people have heard the speech by the Syrian president. They've seen these delaying tactics and half measures before.
The time has come for Syria to fully implement Security Council Resolution 1559. All Syrian military forces and intelligence personnel must withdraw before the Lebanese elections for those elections to be free and fair.
(APPLAUSE)
The elections in Lebanon must be fully and carefully monitored by international observers.
The Lebanese people have the right to determine their future free from domination by a foreign power. The Lebanese people have the right to choose their own parliament this spring free of intimidation.
BUSH: And that new government will have the help of the international community in building sound political, economic and military institutions so the great nation of Lebanon can move forward in security and freedom.
(APPLAUSE)
Today I have a message for the people of Lebanon: All the world is witnessing your great movement of conscience. Lebanon's future belongs in your hands. And by your courage Lebanon's future will be in your hands.
The American people are on your side. Millions across the Earth are on your side. The momentum of freedom is on your side. And freedom will prevail in Lebanon.
(APPLAUSE)
America and other nations are also aware that the recent terrorist attack in Tel Aviv was conducted by a radical Palestinian group headquartered in Damascus.
Syria as well as Iran has a long history of supporting terrorist groups determined to sow division and chaos in the Middle East. And there's every possibility they will try this strategy again.
The time has come for Syria and Iran to stop using murder as a tool of policy and to end all support for terrorism.
(APPLAUSE)
In spite of attacks by extremists, the world is seeing hopeful progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There's only one outcome that will end the tyranny, danger, violence and hopelessness and meet the aspirations of all people in the region.
BUSH: We seek two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security.
(APPLAUSE)
And that goal is within reach if all of the parties meet their responsibilities and if terrorism is brought to an end.
Arab states must end incitement in their own media, cut off public and private funding for terrorism, stop their support for extremist education, and establish normal relations with Israel.
Israel must freeze settlement activity, help the Palestinians build a thriving economy and ensure that a new Palestinian state is truly viable with contiguous territory on the West Bank.
Palestinian leaders must fight corruption, encourage free enterprise, rest true authority with the people and actively confront terrorist groups.
The bombing in Tel Aviv is a reminder that the fight against terrorists is critical to the search for peace and for Palestinian statehood.
In an interview last week, Palestinian President Abbas strongly condemned the terrorist attack in Tel Aviv declaring, quote, "ending violence and security chaos is, first and foremost, a Palestinian interest."
He went on to say, "We cannot build the foundations of a state without the rule of law and public order."
President Abbas is correct, and so the United States will help the Palestinian Authority build the security services that current peace and future statehood require, security forces which are effective, responsive to civilian control, and dedicated to fighting terror and upholding the rule of law.
BUSH: We will coordinate with the government of Israel, with neighbors such as Egypt and Jordan, and with other donors to ensure that Palestinians get the training and equipment they need.
The United States is determined to help the parties remove obstacles to progress and move forward in practical ways so we can seize this moment for peace in the Holy Land.
(APPLAUSE)
In other parts of the Middle East, we're seeing small but welcome steps. Saudi Arabia's recent municipal elections were the beginning of reform that may allow greater participation in the future.
Egypt has now the prospect of competitive, multi-party elections for president in September.
Like all free elections, these require freedom of assembly, multiple candidates, free access by those candidates to the media and the right to form political parties. Each country in the Middle East will take a different path of reform and every nation that starts on that journey can know that America will walk at its side.
(APPLAUSE)
Progress in the Middle East is threatened by weapons of mass destruction and their proliferation. Today Great Britain, France and Germany are involved in a difficult negotiation with Iran aimed at stopping its nuclear weapons program.
We want our allies to succeed, because we share the view that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be destabilizing and threatening to all of Iran's neighbors.
The Iranian regime should listen to the concerns of the world and listen to the voice of the Iranian people who long for their liberty and want their country to be a respected member of the international community.
BUSH: We look forward to the day when Iran joins in the hopeful changes taking place across the region. We look forward to the day when the Iranian people are free.
(APPLAUSE)
Iran and other nations have an example in Iraq. The recent elections have begun a process of debate and coalition-building unique in Iraqi history and inspiring to see.
Iraq's leaders are forming a government that will oversee the next and critical stage in Iraq's political transition: the writing of a permanent constitution.
This process must take place without external influence. The shape of Iraq's democracy must be determined by the Iraqis themselves.
(APPLAUSE)
Iraq's democracy, in the long run, must also be defended by Iraqis themselves.
Our goal is to help Iraqi security forces move toward self- reliance. And they're making daily progress.
Iraqi forces were the main providers of security at about 5,000 polling places in the January elections. Our coalition is providing equipment and training to the new Iraqi military, yet they bring a spirit all of their own.
Last month, when soldiers of the U.S. 7th Cavalry Regiment were on combat patrol north of Baghdad, one of their Humvees fell into a canal and Iraqi troops came to the rescue, plunging into the water again and again until the last American was recovered.
The Army colonel in charge of the unit said, "When I saw those Iraqis in the water fighting to save their American brothers, I saw a glimpse of the future of this country."
BUSH: One Iraqi soldier commented, "These people have come 10,000 miles to help my country. They've left their families and their children. If we can give them something back, just a little, we can show our thanks."
(APPLAUSE)
America is proud to defend freedom in Iraq. And America is proud to stand with the brave Iraqis as they defend their own freedom.
(APPLAUSE)
Three and a half years ago, the United States mourned our dead, gathered our resolve and accepted a mission. We made a decision to stop threats to the American people before they arrive on our shores and we have acted on that decision.
We're also determined to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.
This objective will not be achieved easily or all at once or primarily by force of arms. We know that freedom by definition must be chosen and that the democratic institutions of other nations will not look like our own.
Yet we also know that our security increasingly depends on the hope and progress of other nations now simmering in despair and resentment.
BUSH: And that hope and progress is found only in the advance of freedom.
This advance is a consistent theme of American strategy, from the 14 Points, to the Four Freedoms, to the Marshall Plan, to the Reagan doctrine.
Yet the success of this approach does not depend on grand strategy alone. We are confident that the desire for freedom, even when repressed for generations, is present in every human heart.
(APPLAUSE)
And that desire can emerge with sudden power to change the course of history.
Americans, of all people, should not be surprised by freedom's power. A nation founded on the universal claim of individual rights should not be surprised when other people claim those rights.
Those who place their hope in freedom may be attacked and challenged, but they will not ultimately be disappointed, because freedom is the design of humanity and freedom is the direction of history.
(APPLAUSE)
In our time, America has been attacked, America has been challenged. Yet the uncertainty and sorrow and sacrifice of these years have not been in vain.
Millions have gained their liberty and millions more have gained the hope of liberty that will not be denied. The trumpet of freedom has been sounded and that trumpet never calls retreat.
(APPLAUSE)
Before history is written in books, it is written in courage: the courage of honorable soldiers, the courage of oppressed peoples, the courage of free nations in difficult tasks.
Our generation is fortunate to live in a time of courage, and we are proud to serve in freedom's cause.
May God bless you all.
(APPLAUSE)
END

Now the ground has shifted - Fouad Ajami

A sudden, powerful stirring
By Fouad Ajami, US News.com, 3/14/05
In retrospect, it was an appearance by President George W. Bush before the National Endowment for Democracy, in November 2003, that signaled the birth of a new "diplomacy of freedom" in the Arab world. The American military effort in Iraq was in its early stages then; the euphoria of the military campaign had ended, and a war of attrition had begun. Saddam Hussein was still on the loose, and there was no trace of those vaunted weapons of mass destruction that had taken us to war. At that uncertain hour, Bush proposed nothing less than a break with the ways of American diplomacy in the region. "Sixty years of western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe, because in the long run," he said, "stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty. As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence ready for export."
Today the Arab world is beset by a mighty storm. For decades, the American choice in Arab-Islamic lands was stark. The "civil society" there was truculent and malignantly anti-American, while the rulers seemed like eminently reasonable men willing to strike bargains in the shadows. It was easy to accept their authoritarianism as the cultural practice of the
Arabs: This was what Bush called the "soft bigotry of low expectations."
Deep down we may have suspected Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak of double-dealing and bad faith in the diplomacy he pursued in the region, in the kind of official culture his regime spread in that surly, unhappy land. We suspected he was taking our dollars while nurturing a culture of anti-Americanism and antimodernism. But we tolerated that terrible bargain. We accepted with resignation that the Islamists were a worse alternative than the military regime. Now the ground has shifted. A budding popular opposition has taken to the streets of Cairo. In one poignant word, its banners proclaim its politics, and tell us so much about that country and its modern-day pharaoh: Kifaya (enough) is the name of the movement. Egypt has wearied of its ruler, of his family, of the mediocrity of his regime. "Enough" said the crowd that wanted done with the emergency decrees, with the corruption and the plunder. The cancellation by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice of a visit to Cairo to protest the arrest of a member of Parliament who dared question pharaoh's will was overdue. We owed it to these people. More important, we owed it to ourselves.
Discovering possibilities. The crowds in the plazas of Beirut have been holding aloft placards and banners of their own, ones that tell of a society fed up with a long season of Syrian misrule and extortion. "It's obvious, isn't it?" read one banner. The reference, of course, was to the murder, on February 14, of one of Lebanon's seminal public figures, the philanthropist and former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. "Syrial killers," read another banner. The world is one large echo chamber. These young people in the streets of Beirut beheld Ukraine's Orange Revolution; they saw the "Revolution of Purple Ink" (Iraq's vote), and they wanted their own festival of national unity. A young woman I reached in Beirut was proud to tell me that her husband had left for "the demo" and was insistent that I reach him at the demonstration on a cellphone. I duly complied: The man then held the phone up so I could take in the tumult. For years, these people feared Syria's secret police. Now, on the far side of fear, they have discovered a new world of possibilities.
We don't know for sure if the American public shares Bush's passion for the pursuit of freedom. We know that America has paid dearly for this democratic movement, in both blood and treasure, for this democratizing push was given force by Iraq's elections. But the outlines of a new Arab world may now be dimly seen. A brilliant American officer, Lt. Col. Mark Martins, whom I met in Baghdad, allowed himself a moment of satisfaction. "Democracy is not a luxury car," he E-mailed me last week. "It is an all-terrain vehicle and good for fighting insurgency."
We now take democracy on those hard Arab roads. It is their world, and they must repair it. But they hang on Bush's words, in Damascus and Beirut, and in Cairo as well. It is odd that it is a conservative American president who proclaims this confident Wilsonianism. But the crowds in Araby don't seem to mind.

Next Up, Sanctions

As we all know, the President is standing for Liberty and Freedom in Lebanon. The Intl. community until now has stood with him. We will now see how long this will last, as sanctions are the next obvious step. And not just the American led SALSA sanctions, but asset freezes and trade freezes from Europe. Only with this total pressure will Syria contemplate a full departure from Lebanon.

Partial measures are not enough - Americans Stand with the Lebanese People

Syrians to Pull Back to Eastern Lebanon This Month

Mon Mar 7, 5:40 PM ET World - Reuters


By Inal Ersan

DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syria, under world pressure to quit Lebanon, promised on Monday to shift its troops to eastern areas this month, but the U.S. dismissed the plan for failing to set a deadline for a full withdrawal.

The pullback would be the biggest single such move since Syrian forces intervened in Lebanon's civil war in 1976. It now has some 14,000 troops there, down from 40,000.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad agreed the withdrawal plan in talks with his Lebanese counterpart Emile Lahoud in Damascus.
The Syrian troops will complete their move to eastern Lebanon by March 31, said a statement after the talks. The Syrian and Lebanese military will then decide how long the Syrians stay there.
The plan means Syrian troops will be gone from most but probably not all of Lebanon before general elections due by May.

The United States considered such "half measures" unsatisfactory, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.
"This does not add up to Syria leaving Lebanon. Nobody has said all troops are leaving Lebanon," said a State Department official. "We will continue to hold their feet to the fire, not accept half-measures and call a spade a spade -- that is, when they make these announcements about a withdrawal that is neither complete or immediate, we will call it for what it is."

Germany, France and Britain urged Syria to move swiftly.
"We expect Syria to withdraw its troops and security services completely and as quickly as possible," German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (news - web sites) and French President Jacques Chirac said in a joint statement.
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said separately that Syria's move was welcome as a "first step," adding: "We expect to see rapid progress to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the whole of Lebanon" in line with a U.N. resolution last year.

Even while Assad and Lahoud were meeting, Syrian soldiers based in the Lebanese mountain towns of Hamana, Mdairij, Soufar and Aley were dismantling communications equipment or loading military gear and belongings onto army trucks, witnesses said.
Some trucks with equipment and a few dozen soldiers from several posts headed eastwards. Other troops stayed behind.
A Lebanese security source said the posts were pulling out their equipment to other posts closer to the border to enable them to move out quickly when the orders come later this week.
Syria's role in Lebanon has come under fierce fire since a Feb. 14 bombing that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Damascus denied any involvement in the blast.

CHRISTIAN HARDLINER
Tens of thousands of Lebanese flag-waving protesters again took over central Beirut's Martyrs Square chanting "Freedom, sovereignty, independence" and demanding Syria quit Lebanon.
Some of the youthful crowd were supporters of exiled general Michel Aoun, a staunchly anti-Syrian Maronite Christian, who dismissed the Syrian withdrawal plan as stalling tactics.
"I don't think Assad will respect his commitments and it will not be the first time. He is maneuvering to win time," Aoun told Reuters by telephone from Paris.
"He doesn't want to withdraw. He still hopes to make some changes in international policy but I think he's heading for a confrontation with the international community," Aoun said.
Assad and Lahoud said they respected U.N. Security Council resolutions, including one demanding that Syria quit Lebanon, as well as the Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon's civil war and which envisaged a Syrian pullout from most parts of the country.
"The two sides affirmed their commitment to the Taif Accord ... and their respect for all (U.N.) resolutions including Resolution 1559," their statement said.
Syria has previously said compliance with the Taif Accord amounts to fulfilling the U.N. resolution adopted in September.

Aoun, driven from east Beirut by the Syrians in 1990 with the tacit approval of the United States, rejected Taif at the time because it did not guarantee a full Syrian withdrawal.
Assad on Saturday promised a troop pullback, but declared Damascus would still play a role in its much smaller neighbor.
Lebanon's most powerful and only armed party, Hizbollah, has called for peaceful protests on Tuesday in support of Syria and warned of mayhem if Syrian troops were to leave.
Set up by Iran (news - web sites)'s Revolutionary Guard in 1982, Shi'ite Muslim Hizbollah is the only Lebanese faction to keep its guns. It gained wide popularity after helping drive Israeli troops from south Lebanon in 2000. Washington says it is a terrorist group.
President Bush (news - web sites) is considering new unilateral sanctions, including freezing Syrian assets, U.S. officials say, and Washington is discussing "next steps" with European allies.
Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, whose country urged Assad last week to start withdrawing troops, welcomed Syria's weekend announcement. "What is required of the Lebanese is that they not give a chance for any troublemaker to return to Lebanon," he told Al Arabiya satellite television. (Additional reporting by Lin Noueihed in Damascus and Lucy Fielder in Beirut)

Powerline has Iraqi poll results translated by Haider Ajina

Haider Ajina has translated for us a poll that appeared today in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Sabah Al-Jadeed. The poll surveyed 2,878 Iraqis in and around Baghdad:

Do you support the severe measures the Iraqi Government is taking against terrorist acts in Iraq?
93.56% = Yes6.44% = No

How do you think Arabic satellite news companies are covering Iraqi news?
Neutral = 16.75%Not Neutral = 7.25%Negatively Biased = 76%

What is your opinion of U.N. Resolution 1546?
It achieves the ambitions of Iraqis for sovereignty = 73.12%It satisfies ambition of certain Iraqi groups = 12.90%It helps legitimise the American occupation = 13.98%

This is why I keep saying: the "insurgency" is over. The terrorists lost. What is going on now is just crime. Criminals can kill, but they can't affect history. As Haider says:
Iraqis are solidly behind their government's security forces pursuing the terrorists and with their vote on Jan. 30th they defeated the terrorists and now it is time to round them up.
Iraqis are also wise to Al-Jazeerah and her ilk of TV stations being anything but supportive or just neutral in their coverage of Iraq. Quite the contrary they want to injure Iraq's democracy. As more and more Arabs recognize these dubious links [to terrorist groups], they will pull their support of these stations (by not watching them).

Michale Totten and Marc Cooper are worried for post-collapse Syria

Blogging is best when more popular blogs link to unknown blogs, but mine seems to be working the opposite way.
Here's a great post of Michael Totten, who has linked to Amarji...take a look


Syria Shudders
I have high hopes for post-occupation Lebanon, despite – and certainly not because of – Lebanon’s history of violent ethnic conflict. Lebanon’s politics are notoriously ruthless, but there also exists a dynamic, sophisticated, and partially liberalized civil society in that country that counters some of the darker strains in the system.

France, Saudi Arabia and Israel - An odd coalition for the for Peace and Liberation of Lebanon

via the NY Times

France, which drafted the United Nations mandate in September with the United States, promptly released a statement through its Foreign Ministry, saying, "We are therefore expecting the complete withdrawal of its troops and services from Lebanon as soon as possible."

On Thursday, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia told Mr. Assad to leave Lebanon quickly, emphasizing the lack of support for Syria in the Arab League.

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom of Israel told Reuters that a gradual Syrian withdrawal would not be enough but that a complete pullout from Lebanon was "more tangible than ever." He also held out the possibility that a full pullout of troops could lead to peace between Lebanon and Israel.

President Bush made clear that he was demanding a full withdrawal

via the NY Times

President Bush, in his weekly radio address, broadcast less than two hours before Mr. Assad spoke, made clear that he was demanding a full withdrawal before planned elections in Lebanon in May.
"Syria has been an occupying force in Lebanon for nearly three decades, and Syria's support for terrorism remains a key obstacle to peace in the broader Middle East," Mr. Bush said, escalating a weeklong campaign to pressure the Assad government.
"Today, America and Europe are standing together with the Lebanese people," he said, citing the Security Council resolution, which requires that "all foreign forces be withdrawn, and that free and fair elections be conducted without foreign influence."

On Saturday, State Department officials stressed again that only a rapid, full withdrawal was acceptable.
"President Assad's announcement is not enough," said Darla Jordan, a State Department spokeswoman. "As President Bush said Friday, when the United States and France and others say withdraw, we mean complete withdrawal. No half-hearted measures."

Aides to President Bush, anticipating Mr. Assad's offer of a partial withdrawal, had said Friday it would be rejected.
"Anything less - phased withdrawal, partial withdrawal, leaving the intelligence agents in place - is a violation of the resolution," a senior aide said in a briefing. "How fair an election can Lebanon hold if the troops are there to intimidate voters, people running for election, or people now in office?"
But it is unclear what kind of additional pressure Mr. Bush and his European allies are willing to bring. In Martyrs' Square here, the scene of many demonstrations in recent weeks, thousands of protesters came Saturday morning to watch a broadcast of Mr. Assad's speech on projection screens, at times booing and jeering, or calling "Liar!" and "Bush sends his greetings!"
The protesters, many dressed in white, waved Lebanese flags and called for "freedom, sovereignty and independence."

Mr. Bush and his aides clearly believe that Mr. Assad is on the ropes and that continued pressure will force him out of Lebanon. The thought is that the presence of American forces in Iraq adds to the psychological pressure, though they have been careful not to say whether any military force overt or covert will be used to add to the pressure.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and representatives from France and other European nations called on Syria to get out of Lebanon. Russia, a staunch Syrian ally, told Syria on Wednesday to leave Lebanon, signaling a lack of support for the country in the Security Council.

MEMRI translates Syrian Intellectuals letters supporting freedom to the Lebanese people and Assad

Syrian Intellectuals Call Upon President Al-Assad
The Lebanese daily Al-Nahar recently published two communiqués signed by Syrian intellectuals.

One, published on February 23, 2005, was directed to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, and called upon him to begin the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon. It was signed by over 140 intellectuals, whose names appeared in Al-Nahar. [1]

The other communiqué, published on February 24, 2005, was signed by 33 Syrian intellectuals and was directed to Lebanese intellectuals. It supported the Lebanese demand for Syrian withdrawal and called for protection of Syrian laborers in Lebanon. [2]
The following are extracts from the two communiqués:

Syrian Intellectuals to Bashar Al-Assad: 'It Is High Time that Syria Adopts a New Policy'
"There is a new, formidable, and dangerous [matter] that has reached our country and is attempting to shape its destiny and the future of its generations. The international pressures are intensifying and assuming diverse shapes and forms, and the Syrian people does not know what awaits it. It is futile to insist upon outdated political means of dealing with crises, and it is high time that Syria adopts a new policy that will take [the new reality] into account, particularly after the crime of Rafiq Al-Hariri's assassination, and will hasten to establish healthy, generous relations with Lebanon.
"The implementation of the Taif Agreement and the beginning of the withdrawal of the Syrian military forces from Lebanon will enable us to take advantage of the present opportunity and to guard against disastrous developments. If this initiative is implemented today in response to the desire of the Syrian and Lebanese peoples to forge a new bond between them, the excuses of external [elements] will be overcome and a new path will be paved to rebuild mutual trust and support between the two peoples and the two countries in their struggle against joint challenges."

Syrian Intellectuals to the Lebanese: 'We Support Your Demand to Withdraw the Syrian Army from Lebanon'
The following are excerpts from the othercommuniqué, signed by 33 Syrian intellectuals and directed to Lebanese intellectuals:
"We support your demand to withdraw the Syrian army from Lebanon, to rectify Syrian-Lebanese relations, and to base [these relations] on equality, on independence, on freedom of choice for both peoples and on the interests of both countries.
"We, as Syrian intellectuals who have always found in Lebanon a window [of opportunity] to express our views – [views that] we have not been able to express in the homeland [i.e., Syria] – speak to you frankly, [saying] that we feel hurt and pained at seeing and hearing those who humiliate Syria, its people and citizens, who have committed no crime, and [at seeing and hearing] those who attack poor Syrian laborers, who have come to earn a meager living in your nearby and distinguished country…
"As justice requires [the fulfillment of] your demand to remove [Syrian] hegemony from Lebanon, it also requires that the poor laborers who participated in the construction of Lebanon be treated in a dignified manner…
"If the withdrawal of the Syrian forces from Lebanon constitutes the beginning of a reform in relations between the two countries, threats against and humiliation of weak Syrian citizens damage and poison the future of these relations…"
[1] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 23, 2005. MEMRI has a list of the 140 signatories, as published in Al-Nahar.
Among the signatories was Anwar Al-Bunni, an attorney representing political prisoners, and Hakam Al-Baba, who is well-known for his article criticizing the Syrian security apparatuses, which was published in the Syrian daily Tishrin. See MEMRI Special Dispatch Series No. 829, December 16, 2004, 'Syrian Journalists Debate Treatment of Civilians by Security Apparatuses.'
[2] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 24, 2005. MEMRI has a list of the 33 signatories, as published in Al-Nahar.

New England Republican...

points out a story that I forgot to link to...which is exactly the point of why we are in Iraq, pushing democracy in Egypt and Saudia Arabia, and helping the demonstrations in Lebanon...we are finally getting back to what will keep us safe here....people happy and in control of their own countries.

"OK, I already posted a quote of the day below, but I couldn't wait until tomorrow to post this quote from Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore’s former Ambassador to the United Nation:
"America has done more good for the rest of the world than any other society. The single biggest gift that America has shared with the impoverished billions on our planet is hope.At the end of the Cold War, America made an awesome strategic error: It decided to behave like an ordinary country. There is nothing inherently wrong with behaving like an ordinary country, especially a peaceful ordinary country. The only problem is that, over the course of 200 years, America had succeeded in convincing mankind that it was an extraordinary country."HT: RealClearPolitics"

oh and...thanks for the link buddy. I'm now up to 2 whole links !

History's End points out the Inevitable...

Give President Bush and inch, and he will push for a mile. The grand strategy is to increase democracy throughout the region, and thereby decrease the rage of the people of the region. Also, it is helpful to eliminate dictators who have in the past sponsored terrorism.

Tactically speaking, when one of these dictators gives you a reason to "take him out", use it - WMD may have been incorrect, but who knows, maybe they are in the Bekkaa valley. Now that Assad is foolish enough to try to stay in Lebanon, use that lever to force him out and look weak, thereby huring his power in his own country. ....here's History's take on it....and I fully agree. Assad can only lose here. and we don't even necessarily have to bomb him.

"Bush has been speaking more and more forcefully on this, and I think its safe to say that the pressure on Assad is only going to intensify. I suspect that the US has been looking for an opening like this for a while, and is intent to push it for all its worth. As for the bit about no military action planned, I suspect that is true. However, the US may try and control the situation so that the Syrian are forced to either crack down on protestors themselves, and thus open them to US attack, or leave the country. Syria is running out of time and options."

Britain's foreign secretary

Syria risks becoming a 'pariah': Straw
By Chris Johnston, Times Online, and Richard Beeston, Times Diplomatic Editor Britain today increased pressure on Syria after Britain's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw warned it risked being "treated as a pariah" if the government failed to start withdrawing its troops from Lebanon immediately. "They have got this very clear strategic choice," the Foreign Secretary told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "If they pull forces out in a sensible, swift way, they make a comeback [into the international community]. If they don’t, they will be treated as a pariah - not just by the West, but by most of their Arab neighbours." Syrian withdrawal from its tiny neighbour was the only option, Mr Straw said. "That was the call of the UN Security Council in its Resolution 1559 last September. We need real democracy in Lebanon. You can only have democracy if the government has complete control on its territory - and that’s not the case."
The Foreign Secretary made it clear there was "absolutely no suggestion" of foreign military intervention in Lebanon or Syria. "Any decision in respect of that would have explicitly to be authorised by the UN Security Council. I don’t myself believe for a second there will be external military action." Mr Straw revealed that Security Council members have informally considered deploying more peacekeeping forces in Lebanon after Syrian troops pulled out in a "swift [but] phased" way. Some United Nations peacekeepers are already in southern Lebanon. Mr Straw hailed what he called the "velvet revolution" being seen on the streets of Beirut. "It is very exciting that these developments are taking place in the Middle East, which many people thought was going to be the last area in the world to accept democracy."

NY Post Bush Interview

March 4, 2005 -- WASHINGTON — President Bush told the New York Post yesterday that Syria must pull all of its troops out of Lebanon by May so that the now-occupied nation can have free elections. "The subject that is most on my mind right now is getting Syria out of Lebanon, and I don't mean just the troops out of Lebanon, I mean all of them out of Lebanon, particularly the secret service out of Lebanon — the intelligence services," he said. "This is non-negotiable. It is time to get out . . . I think we've got a good chance to achieve that objective and to make sure that the May elections [in Lebanon] are fair. I don't think you can have fair elections with Syrian troops there," the president said in a wide-ranging Oval Office interview with The Post's editorial board. Asked if there is a threat of military action as an "or else" if they don't, Bush replied, "No. The 'or else' is further isolation from the world. You know, the president should never take any options off the table, [but] my last choice is military." Bush, looking relaxed, sat in a blue-striped chair during the 35-minute interview. He pointed with pride to the gold-colored rug designed by his wife, Laura, saying it showed "an optimistic" person came to work in that office every day. He also showed off his desk — used by John F. Kennedy — saying it makes him feel part of history. "Any president that thinks he's larger than history will fail," Bush remarked. He'd just come from giving a pep talk at the CIA, and afterward met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
In the interview, Bush also said he'd like to go back to Iraq sometime "to see the free country" — he made a surprise Thanksgiving visit to troops there in 2003 — but probably not right now. "I would like to sometime," he said. "On the other hand, there are still people there that can kill, and, therefore, I wouldn't feel comfortable with a big announced trip. When the president goes, it's a big deal. "But some day, I'd like to go back to see the free country. It would have been fantastic to have been there when over 8 million people voted." The president said change is coming so fast to the Middle East that he has to stop himself from getting "completely swept up in the rapidity of things right now" and remember that substantive change takes time.
On the foreign front, Bush ticked off all the sudden steps toward freedom in the Middle East. He spoke almost in amazement at the idea of "street demonstrations in Beirut demanding the removal of Syrian troops." He stressed that time has run out for Syria to play its old game of haggling over which troops will get pulled out or how far they will go. "When the United States says something, it must mean it. That's what I meant when I said, 'Remove all your troops,' not remove 94 percent of them," the president said. "Totally out of Lebanon — and that's very important for [Syrian] President Assad to hear. And it's more than just troops. I keep emphasizing this, but it's important for the world to understand that a Lebanon that is able to express itself freely at the ballot box needs to have no Syrian secret service."
Looking back to 9/11, Bush said his first thought was to prevent another attack, and he didn't envision the policy of spreading freedom throughout the world that has become the central theme of his presidency. "It took me a while to fully understand what it meant to say that out of this evil will come some good," he said. "But it was hard to envision at that point in time the tremendous changes that take place as a result of democracy taking hold in a place like Afghanistan."
Bush said that what began to convince him that dramatic change was possible was meeting people like Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who once woke up in exile to find axes at his throat as Saddam Hussein's thugs tried to kill him. "Imagine what it was like — everyone's worst nightmare, a living horror movie," Bush said, adding that people like Karzai and Allawi show what courage and leadership can do. "I believe that individuals can help shape the course of events. Leadership matters. Courage matters. And I began to get a sense of that courage when I met these people who love freedom," Bush said. Now that freedom and hope seem to be racing across the Middle East, Bush said he sometimes has to remind himself to be patient. "Certain countries can't move as fast as we would like. But, nevertheless, it is easier to imagine now that maybe things will happen quicker than I thought," he said. "But I'm not going to allow myself to get too enthusiastic."

Crown Prince Abdullah says GET OUT !

Earlier, Saudi Arabia also told Damascus to leave Lebanon when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad flew to Riyadh for crisis talks with Crown Prince Abdullah.
A regional U.S. ally, Abdullah told Assad that ``Syria must start withdrawing soon, otherwise Saudi-Syrian relations will go through difficulties,'' one Saudi official said.via the NY Times

The Man has a point.....

``If you believe in democracy, why not let the democracy in Lebanon flourish and grow,'' said President Bush, who backed a U.N. resolution in September that called on Syria's troops to withdraw. ``It's time for Syria to get out.''

Washington Post - Assad cornered like a rat

A Tyrant Cornered
Thursday, March 3, 2005; Page A24

AS THE MIDDLE East changes all around him, Syrian President Bashar Assad still tries to play by the old rules. He figured he could sponsor terrorism in Iraq and Israel and thereby block progress toward democracy and peace. He calculated that the car bomb that killed former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri -- whether or not it was planted by his agents
-- would stop the gathering Lebanese independence movement. He was wrong: In each case, such tactics have been defeated by an emerging Arab movement of people power. The 8 million Iraqis who turned out to vote, the Palestinians who have overwhelmingly supported the cease-fire with Israel, and the tens of thousands of Lebanese who have been marching and camping in the center of Beirut have all proved more potent than assassinations and suicide bombs. If Mr. Assad will not yield to the new political realities they are creating, he will place his own regime at risk.
There is no sign that the crude and callow tyrant gets the message. His response to the turmoil set off by his own criminal policies has been to adopt the standard formula of beleaguered Middle Eastern autocrats: appease the superpowers, blame Israel and appeal for "Arab unity." On Sunday, in a gesture aimed at Washington, the Syrian government abruptly turned a top leader of the Sunni insurgency over to the Iraqi government; the next day Syria's chosen prime minister in Lebanon resigned. Mr. Assad, meanwhile, gave an interview to an Italian newspaper declaring that Syrian troops could not withdraw from Lebanon, as required by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, in the absence of peace with Israel. His defenders appealed to the dictator-dominated Arab League to interpose itself between the United Nations and Damascus, so as to fashion an "Arab solution" -- that is, one that essentially preserves the status quo.
The Bush administration and the French government rightly sense an opportunity to brush off these maneuvers and side with the mobilized people of Lebanon. On Tuesday the two governments issued a statement again demanding "the immediate withdrawal of all Syrian military and intelligence forces from Lebanon" as well as "free and fair parliamentary elections this spring, bolstered by an international observer presence." The unlikely but potent U.S.-French alliance can bring extraordinary pressure to bear on Damascus if it chooses: The freezing of a European Union economic agreement and U.N. sanctions are among the available tools. The West can also support monitors or peacekeepers in Lebanon to fill any gap left by a Syrian withdrawal. The potential payoff is a big one: another free election in the Arab world this spring, an independent Lebanon and, just possibly, a change in Syria. The old, corrupt order in Beirut, as in Baghdad, is crumbling. Whether Mr. Assad survives its passing may depend on whether he adapts in time.

Let me count the ways...a compendium of Quotes on the Illegal Occupation of Lebanon

We now have a coalition against the illegal occupation of Lebanon.

The US, France, The UK, Germany, Russia, Mauritania, Arab League, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Algeria...and more to come.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;sessionid=AJSMZQW3LWR0VQFIQMFCNAGAVCBQYJVC?xml=/news/2005/03/03/usyria.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/03/03/ixportaltop.html
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said: "Syria should withdraw from Lebanon, but we all have to make sure that this withdrawal does not violate the very fragile balance which we still have in Lebanon, which is a very difficult country ethnically."

Germany's Gerhard Schöder has joined calls for Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. The German chancellor, who is visiting Yemen, said: "Lebanon should be given an opportunity for sovereignty and development and this can only be achieved by compliance with Security Council resolutions."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3828-2005Mar3_2.html
Mauritanian Foreign Minister Mohamed Vall Ould Bellal called on Syria to implement the Taif agreement "according to a sensible timetable."

"We have to contain, with all our capabilities, the existing big problems and to shift the current situation into a safer position," Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said. "No doubt the Taif agreement has its own role in solving the problem at this stage."

There, Egyptian presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad told reporters that a means must be found for "marrying the Taif agreement with the Security Council resolution" passed last year calling for all foreign forces to leave Lebanon. "We are working on it," he said. "The aim is easing the pressure off Syria."

Yemeni Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Kerbi expressed sorrow over Hariri's death and hope that "our brothers in Lebanon will overcome this predicament and unify their ranks in a way that will guarantee the safety, security, unity and stability of Lebanon." "Undoubtedly, the wisdom in which Syria is dealing with these developments will enable Lebanon and Syria to maintain their special historic relationship," said al-Kerbi, acting as chairman for the meeting.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20050303/ap_on_re_mi_ea/arabs_syria
CAIRO, Egypt - Saudi officials told Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday that he must fully withdraw troops from Lebanon and begin soon or face strains in Saudi-Syrian ties. Assad promised only to study the idea of a partial withdrawal by later this month. The kingdom took a tough line as Assad met with the Saudi leader, Crown Prince Abdullah, and other officials in Riyadh. So far, Damascus has resisted Arab pressure for a quick pullout from Lebanon. Saudi officials told Assad the kingdom insists on the full withdrawal of all Syrian military and intelligence forces from Lebanon and wants it to start "soon," according to a Saudi official who spoke by telephone from Riyadh.

http://www.latimes.com/la-oe-boot3mar03,0,2094258.column?coll=la-home-utilities
"It's strange for me to say it," says Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who would never be mistaken for a Bush backer, "but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq."

"Now with the new Bush administration," confirms former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel, "we feel a stronger determination in liberating Lebanon and in promoting democracy in the Middle East."

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20050303/D88JL7G00.html
Saudis to Syria: Withdraw From Lebanon, By SALAH NASRAWI
CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Saudi officials told Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday that he must soon begin fully withdrawing troops from Lebanon or face strains in Saudi-Syrian ties, an official said. Assad promised only to study the idea of a partial withdrawal by later this month. The kingdom took a tough line as Assad met with the Saudi leader, Crown Prince Abdullah, and other officials in Riyadh. The strong language pointed to increasing impatience among Arab leaders with Damascus' resistance to calling a quick pullout. Saudi officials told Assad the kingdom insists on the full withdrawal of all Syria's 15,000 troops and intelligence forces from Lebanon and wants it to start "soon," a Saudi official said on condition of anonymity. Assad said he would study the possibility of a partial withdrawal before an Arab summit scheduled March 23 in Algeria and said he is doing all he can to resolve the problem but that not everything is up to him, the official said. The Saudis replied that the situation was his problem and warned that if Damascus refuses to comply, it would lead to tensions in Saudi-Syrian ties, the official told The Associated Press, speaking by phone from Riyadh. Damage in those relations would deepen Syria's isolation after its traditional allies Russia and France joined the United States and United Nations in demanding a full pullout. Saudi Arabia, a close ally of Washington, often presents Syria's point of view to U.S. officials. In a further sign of impatience, the Saudis rejected a Syrian request that the upcoming summit officially ask Damascus to withdraw its forces, which would give any pullback an Arab endorsement, the official said. Saudi Arabia is also said to be angry with Damascus over the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who also held Saudi citizenship and was close to the Saudi royal family. The Lebanese opposition has blamed Syria of involvement in the killing - an accusation Damascus denies - and has launched a series of protests that on Monday forced out Lebanon's pro-Syrian government. During a flurry of behind-the-scenes diplomacy in recent days, Syria told Arab countries it needs to keep 3,000 troops in Lebanon "for the time being" - without giving a timetable - and to keep "early monitoring stations" in eastern Lebanon, an Arab diplomat in Cairo said Thursday. Saudi Arabia and Egypt consider such Syrian terms unworkable, the Arab diplomat said. The Syrian army already operates radar stations in Dahr el-Baidar, on mountain tops bordering Syria. Israeli warplanes have attacked the sites in the past. The Syrians also have said they want a new, broader arrangement - including resuming peace talks with Israel - as part of any troop withdrawal from Lebanon. Syria wants Israelis to leave the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau they captured in the 1967 Mideast war. While diplomats in private pressed Damascus to work quickly, Arab League foreign ministers meeting in Cairo on Thursday publicly called on Damascus to follow through on the 1989 Taif accord, which calls for a redeployment of the Syrian forces to the border and eventually a full withdrawal. But they did not set a timetable. "We all agreed to demand the implementation of the Taif Accord with respect to international legitimacy," Algerian Foreign Minister Abdelaziz Belkhadem told reporters after the league meeting. Under growing pressure, Damascus said last month it was willing to carry out the Taif accord and promised to move troops closer to its border, but hasn't yet done so. Assad has given varying estimates for the timing of a withdrawal, from less than two months to at least a year or not until Mideast peace is achieved. Assad told Time magazine that the troops would be out "maybe in the next few months. Not after that." In a separate interview published Monday in the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, Assad said withdrawal would require "serious guarantees. In one word: peace." The troops were originally deployed during Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war - ostensibly as peacekeepers - and Syria has held sway over Lebanese politics ever since. Notably absent from the Arab League meeting in Cairo were Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-Sharaa and his Lebanese counterpart, Mahmoud Hammoud, who serves in a caretaker role with the rest of the pro-Syrian Lebanese government that resigned Monday. The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, stopped by the Arab League but did not stay for the full meeting, heading instead to the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheik to meet with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. A wave of anti-Syrian protests began at the funeral of former premier Rafik Hariri, whose Feb. 14 assassination was widely blamed on Syria and the Damascus-allied Lebanese government. Both governments deny any role. The protests continued - larger, louder and bolder - until the Lebanese government resigned. Far fewer people have kept up the peaceful "independence uprising" in the past few days, shifting attention to political maneuvering.

Change used to be bad. Now change is good

What the NY Times and the rest of the now isolationist democrats, old europe, move on and Soros crowd don't understand is that times have changed. What used to be safe and good for the world is now bad, because safety and stability created most of the problems in the middle east. Through use of th e" safety and stability" excuse, dictators were coddled, freedoms were eliminated, and people became embittered and cynical about the inherant goodness and generosity of the US. This stability demanded a shakeup that only the neocons could invent. Through simple deduction and map viewing, Iraq became the lever to upend attitudes in the middle east. Syria, long the supporter of freedom fighters in Israel is now an occupier and murderer. Egypt, long the centuries old home of the arabs is an undemocratic regime. All eyes are now on first the 8 million voters in Iraq, now the demostraters who overturned a puppet government....and the best changes are still to come. Assad is doomed, and Syria will be free.
Lahoud is governing with borrowed time. Bush and Chirac (imagine that partnership 1 month ago) will see to that.

NY Times says change for Syria is scary. FOOLS !

Syria Under Pressure: Worse Trouble May Lie AheadBy HASSAN M. FATTAH Published: March 3, 2005
EIRUT, Lebanon, March 2 - After decades of controlling Lebanon's political and economic life, Syria is facing the prospect of political and economic tumult as its hold over Lebanon grows weaker.
Under increasing pressure to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad is showing signs of a siege mentality, many opposition figures say. On Wednesday, President Bush, in his bluntest terms yet, insisted that Syria leave Lebanon.
In recent weeks, the Syrian government has cracked down on hard-won freedoms, censoring publications more heavily and increasing pressure on opposition figures. Last week, professors at some Syrian universities were given directives not to discuss subjects like Lebanon, the Kurdish minority or Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister who was assassinated in Beirut two weeks ago. And people in Damascus expect worse to come.
Like his father before him, Mr. Assad has tried to deal with his problems by closing ranks within his government while scrambling to buy time. Last week, for example, he announced that Syria would pull out of Lebanon, and in an interview with Time magazine published Tuesday, he said he expected the job to be done in a matter of months. But so far, many Syrians say, Mr. Assad has proved less adept than his father at playing political cat-and-mouse.
"We are in the corner now," said Youssef Marish, publisher of Al Mobky, a weekly review of culture whose most recent issue was blocked by Syrian censors for being too critical regarding current events. "The problem is that pressure will never stop, not even when we leave Lebanon."
In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica published Monday, Mr. Assad said he thought that the United States might be preparing for military action against Syria. "Washington has imposed sanctions on us and isolated us in the past, but each time the circle hasn't closed around us," he said. "If, however, you ask me if I'm expecting an armed attack, well, I've seen it coming since the end of the war in Iraq."
A Syrian official subsequently denied that Mr. Assad had made the comments.
Mr. Bush, referring Wednesday to a joint news conference held Tuesday in London by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Michel Barnier of France, said, "I applauded the press conference she held with the foreign minister from France, where both of them stood up and said loud and clear to Syria, you get your troops and your secret services out of Lebanon so that good democracy has a chance to flourish."
The Damascus government's lose-lose choices are exemplified by conflicting reports over the weekend that Iraqi officials had credited Syria with help in handing over 30 members of Saddam Hussein's government, including Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan al-Tikriti, Mr. Hussein's half brother. Rather than seize the opportunity to appear to be cooperating with the Iraqi and American authorities, however, Syrian officials denied the reports, fearing that it would amount to an admission that Syria does in fact harbor Hussein loyalists. The Bush administration's contention that Syria has been aiding Iraq's insurgency is a primary source of cool relations between the nations.
"The circulation of such false news is part of the pressure campaign launched by the United States," said Ahmad al-Haj Ali, an adviser to Syria's Ministry of Information. "They want to say that Syria had always been harboring insurgents but never admitted it. And they want to say that pressure should therefore be kept on Syria."
Nonetheless, other Syrian officials emphasized that if Mr. Hassan had been seized in Syria, it could have happened only with the government's help.
"If they found Sabawi Ibrahim in Syria, they found him through the efforts of Syrian intelligence," said Muhammad Habash, a member of Syria's Parliament.
Lingering accusations that Syria was behind a terrorist suicide bombing in Tel Aviv late Friday night are proving even more damaging. Islamic Jihad took responsibility for the bombing, but six hours later, denied the initial claim, apparently under pressure from the government. The Syrian reporter who first wrote of Islamic Jihad's acknowledgement was said to have received phone calls from Syrian officials who criticized him for his lack of "patriotism."
That only served to highlight the weakening grip Syria has over political groups and militias that it has supported and that in the past would have worked in close cooperation with the government. Instead, say opposition figures, many now appear to be pursuing their own interests.
"The problem is everything is being done against their will," Michel Kilo, a prominent Syrian opposition member, said of the government. "But politics as usual simply can't provide the diplomacy needed now."
Yet even as the government in Damascus shows signs of strain, years of one-party rule have left no viable opposition capable of filling its shoes.
For several years, Syria's leaders have looked to China as a model for survival, encouraging economic and judicial change in hopes of increasing economic growth, while avoiding political reform. But with the threat of more economic sanctions, that plan risks collapsing.
The fundamental problem, said Mr. Kilo, the opposition member, is that the government will not seek change unless it gets something in return. "They are open to reform only if they get international assurances that at the end of the reform, the regime will survive," he said.
But change, Mr. Kilo said, would ultimately mean the end of the government, and "they see that if they fix themselves, they will die."
Katherine Zoepf contributed reporting from Damascus for this article.

Star says be careful, dont upset the apple cart. NONSENSE ! The apple cart is full of worms !

Rendering Lahoud null and void may not be the best path to Lebanon's renewalThursday, March 03, 2005
Editorial
Lebanon's political drama has entered a new phase - quieter but nonetheless still crucial. It is a phase of political maneuvering that will determine the makeup of a temporary government to manage the country until elections in spring, and that may very well determine the character of the government that will emerge from the elections.
The opposition has made demands that will render President Emile Lahoud null and void. These demands include the resignation of the heads of the country's many security-intelligence services, which form the practical bases of the president's power. For his predicament, Lahoud principally has himself to blame: it is a political dead-end into which he has backed, and the vacuum in which he now finds himself struggling to breathe is the result of seven years of non-rule and misrule.
Much of this, however, is beside the point since the real power behind Lebanon's president is the president who rules from Damascus. The opposition's near-obsession with Lahoud has the potential to bring the process of political renewal grinding to a halt: The man with whom the opposition should be dealing is Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is the one in possession of the key to progress in Lebanon.
What may yield results on this front, and what is worthwhile in any case, is the opposition's investment in time and energy in talking with Hizbullah. This is time and energy well invested since, unlike Lahoud, Hizbullah represents a significant percentage of the Lebanese population and is a grass roots and very effective sociopolitical body. The future of Lebanon and the future of Hizbullah cannot be divorced - unlike the latter's marriage of convenience with the Syrian regime. Lebanon, and the opposition, need Hizbullah as much as Hizbullah ultimately needs to throw in its lot with the newly emerging Lebanon.
None of this, though, means that Syria should be estranged. While Lebanon has its own path to follow, Syria will always be Lebanon's closest neighbor, and that naturally means close political, economic and cultural ties. But it does not mean totalitarian Syrian dominance of Lebanon.
Fulfilling the terms of the 1989 Taif Accord will be an important step on the road to establishing a new Lebanese-Syrian relationship. In Lebanon, it will pave the way for such vital developments as judicial reform, administrative reform and attending to the deficiencies in the new electoral law that was introduced during the final weeks of the Karami government.
On the ground, thanks to a de facto agreement between the Lebanese people and the army to accommodate each other, violence at this point appears unlikely - if this changes, then it will be the result of dark design. On the ground in another sense is the depressing fact of a looming economic crisis. This is as much a threat to the viability of Lebanon's future as political violence, and only underlines the urgent need for progress on the political front.

US says Syrian Terrorists Bombed Tel Aviv.

Look for Signifiant Pressure on Syria. Assad could be gone within months.


S.: Terrorists in Syria Bombed Tel Aviv
Updated 8:16 PM ET March 1, 2005

By JENNIFER LOVEN and ANNE GEARAN
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bush administration on Tuesday blamed terrorists based in Syria for last week's deadly suicide attack in Israel and called for an immediate end to Syrian military and political domination over neighboring Lebanon.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice applied the strongest American pressure on the Syrians to date, saying at an international conference in London that they were "out of step" in the Middle East and there was growing international resolve against them.
In Washington, White House press secretary Scott McClellan said, "We do have firm evidence that the bombing in Tel Aviv was not only authorized by Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders in Damascus, but that Islamic Jihad leaders in Damascus participated in the planning."
President Bush made a similar point during a White House meeting with congressional leaders, participants said, and so did Rice.
An explosion triggered by a suicide bomber outside a Tel Aviv nightclub Friday night killed five people. It also shook a cease-fire declared by Israeli and Palestinian leaders, in which militant Palestinian group leaders had agreed to a temporary halt to attacks.
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As for Lebanon, all key Lebanese political decisions are assumed to have a stamp of approval from the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Huge street demonstrations and Monday's resignation of the pro-Syrian Lebanese government marked the most serious challenge to Syrian authority in Lebanon since the end of the civil war that killed 150,000 and crushed the Lebanese economy in the 1970s and 1980s.
The events also were an opening for the Bush administration to press its wider goal of democracy across the Middle East and to throw a spotlight on what the United States contends is Syrian support for terrorists who are trying to undermine progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace and in Iraq.
"The Syrians are out of step with where the region is going and out of step with the aspirations of the people of the Middle East," Rice told reporters following the conference on Palestinian security and political reform.
Rice said there is a new international consensus that Syria must withdraw from Lebanon, pointing to a joint U.S.-French statement on Tuesday and a United Nations resolution last fall. Her point was further underscored when Russia on Tuesday joined Saudi Arabia and Egypt in pressing for a withdrawal. "I think it's one of the strongest statements in a long time about what needs to happen in Lebanon," Rice said.
She also said the Lebanese should be allowed to choose their own political future independent of "contaminating influences."
At a press conference with French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier, Rice said their two countries would support the scheduled election in Lebanon, perhaps by sending observers and monitors.
She also suggested international peacekeepers might be needed eventually and could help secure democracy for the Lebanese if the Syrians withdraw their thousands of troops and security forces.
"As we see how the Lebanese will move forward I think we have to look at what can be done in terms of helping them to stabilize the situation, should that become necessary," Rice said.
She gave no details, and later said it was too soon to talk about the specifics of security in Lebanon after a hypothetical Syrian withdrawal.
In Washington, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, R-Ind., said after the meeting with Bush that there was consensus among Democratic and Republican leaders in the room that "Syria must go."
Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, the committee's senior Democrat, agreed. "Their only friend in the region is Iran. They should get out" of Lebanon, Biden said.
An Israeli diplomat said his government had shared information with Washington regarding the allegation of the involvement of the Damascus-based Islamic Jihad in the Tel Aviv attack.
Rice said international pressure on Syria was working, and the United States probably would not